Sierra Leone military unrest sparks fears of a coup plot

Eight countries in West and Central Africa are currently ruled by military governments formed after coups in recent years.

The Sierra Leonean government and foreign embassies in the country have yet to describe Sunday’s events as an attempted coup. However, the U.S. and EU condemned a “forceful seizure” in their separate statements. Ecowas expressed “utter disgust” at the attempt to “disturb the peace and constitutional order” in Sierra Leone.

It was the second jailbreak in West Africa this month following an attempt in Guinea, which shares a 493-mile border with Sierra Leone. Attempted coups in the subregion were staged in Guinea Bissau in February 2022 and the Gambia last December.

Bio won a second and final five-year presidential term in June, in elections that some observers — including the U.S. — faulted for “irregularities.” Some soldiers arrested by the government in August were accused of plotting a possible overthrow.

Bio’s four-minute national address on Sunday evening served as a proof-of-life video to assure Sierra Leoneans to be calm but also underscored the sense of fear that gripped the nation. “We have overcome this challenge,” the president said.

Analysts are hedging their interpretations but there are signs that the country might well have survived a coup.

“What happened has all the hallmarks of a coup, at least an attempt,” Kieran Mitton, a researcher at the King’s College London who studies Sierra Leone, told Semafor Africa. He points to the attackers’ effort to go after weapons in an armory and “even an apparent attempted capture of the state broadcaster” as such marks. State broadcaster SLBC did not broadcast programming for many hours after the first gunshots until 5pm local time, but it is unclear if its offices were attacked.

To describe it as an attempted coup would justify so-called contagion theories that project the spread of more military takeovers in Africa as a result of successful attempts in places like Mali, Burkina Faso and Gabon. Analysis of potential hotspots have noted the Congo basin as being particularly high risk. However, a general theme appears to be that mutinous soldiers will make a move where they envisage little resistance due to weak state structures or ineffective leadership.

Sierra Leone, a country of eight million people with fresh memories of deadly conflict, has been on a gradual shift towards democratic stability in recent years. But Sunday’s events “were reminiscent of the war in too many ways” as one resident put it. Life in Freetown over the coming days is likely to be tense as soldiers have begun stop and search operations on residents. Soldiers reportedly fought those behind the barracks attacks in Jui, a town on the capital’s outskirts.

Bio, a former coup leader himself, will be under scrutiny to see his continued response to the threat posed to his power. “I think they have passed the test because this could have toppled past Sierra Leonean governments,” Mitton said. But a political challenge remains because Bio hasn’t always done a good job of building consensus with opposition parties. “There is a danger that he goes down the wrong path of seeking punishments against opposition figures suspected of being involved [in the attacks] without evidence,” Mitton said.