Angola bets US lobbying will pay off beyond Biden

The United States has helped mobilize some $5 billion for the Lobito Corridor initiative, coordinating not only rail but also digital connectivity and green energy infrastructure. And, while much of the focus for Lobito has been on loosening China’s influence on the supply chain for so-called green minerals used for renewable energy batteries, there are even more immediate opportunities with the country’s agribusiness, say investors.

Luis Lelis, chief executive of BAI, Angola’s biggest bank by assets, said the corridor’s implementation would give the sector a big boost and “create jobs for the youth.”

AFC’s Zubairu agreed: “We’ve had more enquiries about [Lobitio’s] agricultural value chain than the critical minerals’. It shows that any [piece of infrastructure that unlocks value is a good thing.”

Angolans have anticipated Biden’s visit with excitement and “expectations are high,” said Dr M’zée Fula Ngenge, chairman of Luanda-based African Diamond Council.

Angola had a tense relationship with the US for decades after independence in 1975, through the dying years of the Cold War, because its leaders were close to the Soviets. But the relationship has improved in the last couple of decades with Luanda becoming one of Washington’s closest allies on the continent.

“They’ve wanted this for years, to get recognition and respect from the US,” said Jeanine Scott, the US head of Angolan holding company Omatapalo, speaking from Luanda.

The Lobito Corridor is the kind of sprawling opportunity that everyone projects their desired outcome onto. For the outgoing White House and its Democrat supporters, it is the capstone of Biden’s US-Africa strategy. It has stood out as a success at a time when Republicans have criticized the Biden administration’s handling of conflicts in Sudan and the eastern DR Congo in the last couple of years, as well as the return of military governments in the Sahel region.

Some will see Biden’s visit to Angola as almost irrelevant now, given the wave of change sweeping through Washington DC since last month’s election — and the Angolans are watching closely. However, my sources tell me that Trump won’t change position on the Lobito Corridor for two key reasons. First, because his likely US-Africa advisors or appointees are mostly admirers of the project. They see it as a model to expand on in sub-Saharan Africa, moving away from aid and humanitarian projects to more trade and investment.

The second reason is China. While the Biden administration was subtle about naming China as a competitive reason for its actions in Africa, Trump’s White House will be much more obvious about it. With China hawks like his secretary of State nominee Sen. Marco Rubio in place, positioning Lobito Corridor as an anti-China move could see Trump doubling down on support for the initiative.

But the sheer unpredictability of Trump’s approach to policymaking means nobody can be sure how it will play out under his White House. That uncertainty is the reason some in Luanda remain nervous. These are “realistic concerns,” says Fula Ngenge.