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Donald Trump’s second transition was supposed to be different than the first, designed to be “orderly” by advisers who have more eager congressional Republican allies this time around.
Yet the consistent chaos and confusion that defined Trump’s first administration are already descending on Washington.
Trump may lose his second major Cabinet nominee in a matter of weeks, as Army veteran and former Fox News host Pete Hegseth faces draining allegations about his personal life and workplace record. That’s on top of a lower-ranked nominee’s sudden withdrawal, Republican clashes over how to structure their legislative agenda next year — and the awkward spillover of private Mar-a-Lago drama via an internal investigation into Trump confidant Boris Epshteyn.
The new administration’s problems on the Hill aren’t going anywhere, either. Questions still abound about whether Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. can get confirmed after Hegseth’s rocky start and the withdrawal of ex-attorney general pick Matt Gaetz. Republican lawmakers warned that the Trump team’s month-long delay in approval of Justice Department vetting for its nominees is making things all the more difficult.
“It puts them a little bit behind,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, told Semafor. “Some things could have been resolved or fully understood before [nominees’] names were even floated to the public, and that just avoids some of the buzz that you’re seeing right now.”
At the moment the biggest hurdle is in front of Hegseth, who defiantly told reporters Wednesday that he spoke to Trump and asserted “we’re not going anywhere.” Even so, Republican senators are astir over whether he can hang on, as Trump insiders float alternatives who include Gov. Ron DeSantis, Rep. Mike Waltz, Elbridge Colby, and GOP Sens. Joni Ernst and Bill Hagerty.
“I suspect they have possible backup plans. I don’t imagine Pete Hegseth was the only person they were thinking about,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., who added that “I’m willing to give him a shot.”
But it’s not just more establishment-aligned Republican senators getting in the way of Trump’s picks. Chad Chronister, tapped to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration, stepped aside on Tuesday evening following intense backlash from a number of conservatives over past moves that included enforcement of pandemic-era rules. Trump said Wednesday that he pulled Chronister because he “did not like what he said to my pastors and other supporters.”
On top of the Republican war brewing over how to prioritize tax reform and border security in 2025, party lawmakers are walking on eggshells over potential Elon Musk-funded primary threats if they get crosswise with Trump.
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Those close to the transition said everything is comparatively more orderly than in 2016, when Trump’s more surprising victory quickly led to turmoil.
“The president is putting forward a highly-respected and effective group of professionals to serve in senior leadership of government,” said Brian Hughes, a spokesman for the transition team. “Those nominees who require Senate confirmation are already making it clear why they deserve to win support.”
One person close to the transition acknowledged the “curveballs” that Trump’s team has dealt with lately, but maintained that they’re “just par for the course,” adding: “Big picture, transition is in a good place heading into January 20th.”
Another person close to the transition, however, told Semafor that some aides are frustrated and feel as though the team’s pre-election preparations have gone to waste. This person said phrases like “shit show” and “dumpster fire” have been used to describe the process in recent weeks.
By any metric, it is unusual for an incoming president to face the withdrawal of a second Cabinet nominee more than a month before he takes office. Trump lost his first Cabinet nominee in February of 2017; Gaetz didn’t even make it to December.
Should Hegseth’s nomination fail, it would add to the disarray enveloping Capitol Hill. Some inside Trump’s orbit and on the Hill are skeptical Hegseth can survive, but the appetite to defend him is stronger so far than it was for Gaetz — partly because he’s better-liked than the former congressman, partly thanks to various on-the-record pushback to some recent reporting on him.
But there’s also concern among Trump’s allies that allowing Hegseth to step aside would embolden his GOP skeptics to come after additional nominees as well.
Any further havoc could spill over into legislation, as Republicans plot a challenging 2025 agenda that calls on House and Senate members to coordinate on two separate party-line bills with little room for error.
Senate Republicans pitched a schedule on Tuesday that would start with a border-focused bill early next year, followed by a tax-focused bill later next year. But House members aren’t necessarily agreed on that order, which leaves the next steps up in the air.
“I don’t think there was any consensus on what the sequencing should be,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, the GOP whip during Trump’s first two years as president. “There’s a more fundamental problem of: How do you get the votes?”
The View From A MAGA Republican
Sen.-elect Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, said he is “very frustrated” with the reluctance among some fellow Republicans to back Trump’s nominees.
“The reason a lot of us are here, myself included, is because President Trump won my state by such a wide margin. So we’re going to give him the deference he deserves,” Moreno told Semafor. “He deserves a team that he feels is going to allow him to complete the agenda that we all campaigned on.”
Burgess and Shelby’s View
Governing is hard; governing with slim majorities is really hard. Doing that while the unconventional Trump is president? Washington is about to find out how tough that is.
But despite the feeding frenzy over Hegseth’s nomination, Trump is seeing signs of momentum within a party that was more resistant to him eight years ago. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., indicated in an interview that he’ll be a “presumptive yes” on most Trump nominees.
Indeed, a floor vote bringing down any of Trump’s nominees might be a pipe dream given the public pressure on senators from his base. If Hegseth goes down, he’s far more likely to remove himself from consideration early, as Gaetz and Chronister did.
Then the focus would shift to Gabbard and Kennedy.