Hadley’s view
From Abu Dhabi to Dubai to Doha, a sense of unbridled opportunity is in the air. Trump is back, the stock market is flying, and the President-elect’s promise to put an end to four years of global uncertainty and chaos is, for now, seen as an actual possibility.
Over the next few weeks the Gulf will welcome the highest concentration of world leaders, international CEOs, giants of private equity, and bitcoin bros outside of UN week or the World Economic Forum. A series of overlapping business conferences will fill glamorous hotels with big name guests — they’ll attend Formula 1 races and be feted with fancy dinners and extravagant entertainment. Opulent and over-the-top, it’s the perfect backdrop for the kind of diplomacy Gulf governments do best.
While engulfed in this island of stability, it might be easy to forget just how big a mess the rest of the Middle East really is. Trump’s new team do so at their peril.
Lebanon’s ceasefire, brokered by the outgoing administration, is on the verge of collapse. Syria is once again in chaos, with Aleppo overrun by militants. The prime minister of Iraq’s Kurdish region told me ISIS is still a threat, and Jordan’s King Abdullah II is appealing to NATO — an organization consumed by Ukraine — for any help it can spare.
It’s been suggested that Trump could be the “Churchill of his time.” But wartime leaders rarely fare well in peace. While cutting a deal is his signature move, the Abraham Accords — upheld despite the war in Gaza and Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon — have yet to deliver the peace and prosperity promised.
What the accords have demonstrated is Gulf governments’ commitment to their people. For Gulf leaders, economic interests are the national interest. They dominate their foreign policy, consistently pushing pragmatism over passions. Even their commitment to the climate agenda denotes a sense of duty to the prosperity of future generations. It’s why you’ve seen rulers from Riyadh to Abu Dhabi to Doha stay far from the brink in relations with Iran despite provocation. They have left the broader region’s problems to others to solve and refuse to be drawn back in.
As the man who ran on “America First” — twice — Trump will recognize the playbook and probably respect it. But as his new team prepares to take on the complex US role in the region, they should remember the strengths and constraints of the Gulf’s approach. The repercussions of death and destruction in the Middle East rarely remain localized.
Hadley Gamble is Al Arabiya’s Chief International Anchor, and a former anchor with CNBC covering energy, politics, and business.