Tareq’s view
As Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah, and other Iran-affiliated militants fled Syria, it became clear that Bashar al-Assad’s reign was over. Tehran could no longer prop him up, and Moscow is too distracted by its war in Ukraine to offer much support. In a final, desperate bid, Assad reportedly reached out to Washington through Abu Dhabi, offering to end Iranian presence in Syria in exchange for the US lifting sanctions and Washington using what influence it has on rebel groups to ease pressure on the Syrian army.
The UAE’s position has remained constant on Syria: Abu Dhabi wants stability. During the early years of the rebellion, the UAE took in 250,000 Syrians — equivalent to 17% of its citizen population, many of whom chose to build lives in the Emirates. When Assad, with Russian and Iranian support, regained control, Abu Dhabi recognized that ostracizing him would only deepen Syria’s dependence on Tehran. This calculation drove the UAE to normalize ties with Assad, and the UAE led efforts to reintegrate Syria into the Arab fold despite his regime’s crimes against civilians.
Now, Assad is exiled in Russia, his regime dismantled, and Iran’s presence in the Levant is unraveling. Tehran’s regional strategy — arming Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen — has had a destabilizing effect on the region. In Syria, Iranian support allowed Assad to maintain his rule through mass arrests, torture, murder, and intimidation.
The impact of Iranian adventurism is felt throughout the Levant. In Gaza, Hamas’ terrorist attacks on Israel led to devastating consequences for civilians in the territory. In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s persistent rocket attacks on Israel resulted in a sizable Israeli counterattack in the south of Lebanon and Beirut. The tide, however, has turned against Iran. Israel’s moves against Tehran’s proxies have left them destroyed or weakened. This opened a window for Syrian rebels, and now, Iran’s influence in Syria is severed. This presents an opening for Syria and Gulf nations to rekindle their relationships.
The history of revolutions and regime change in Arab countries does not set a promising precedent. Libya and Iraq fell into chaos, and Tunisia and Egypt became short-lived Islamist governments. If Syria were to become an Islamist state — something neither Abu Dhabi nor Riyadh is willing to embrace — the Emirati strategy of geopolitical pragmatism would be tested.
It’s too early to predict the nature of the new Syrian government. Rebels — led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Ahmed al-Shara (better known as Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani), a former Al Qaeda commander who broke ties with the global network — are working with the bureaucracy and urging exiled Syrians to return. The millions of Syrians living in Turkey, Europe, North America, and the Gulf could significantly influence the country’s cultural and political landscape.
So far, there is room for cautious optimism. Al-Shara said he would respect the will of the Syrian people in choosing their leadership and has spoken of respecting the diversity in Syria. If all parties keep their word, the celebrations in Syria’s public squares will be deserved.
Abu Dhabi’s strategy of peace through investment will be tested in Damascus. There are many opportunities, and UAE engagement will bring funds, know-how, and technology to Syria. Gulf capitals are eagerly watching to see who emerges as Syria’s new leader and how the once-rebel forces will decide to share power.
The Syrian people, having endured more than five decades of totalitarian rule and the terror of extremist groups like ISIS, are at a crossroads. It is up to them to choose the government and ideologies that will shape their future. The Islamists under the leadership of Al-Shara have earned goodwill with their role in the rebellion. However, it’s unclear if they can win enough support from a population that still remembers the horrors of ISIS.
As for Iran, its proxies must now be questioning if aligning with Tehran is worth the cost. Time and experience have shown Iran’s friends and enemies that the Islamic Republic is far less capable strategically than it pretends to be.
The Gulf is eager to help stabilize Syria by supporting its reconstruction and economic revitalization. Syria can benefit from the support of friendly neighbors — but only if its new leadership proves to Abu Dhabi and Riyadh that it can achieve stability and build an inclusive and pragmatic state. If, on the other hand, Syria’s new leadership chooses extremism, Damascus will once again find itself alone.
Tareq Alotaiba has 12 years of experience in economic policy, foreign affairs, and national security with the Abu Dhabi and UAE Federal governments. An Abu Dhabi native, he is currently pursuing a master’s degree in Security Studies at Georgetown University.