The News
The overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government has created a power vacuum that could see the entire Middle East region’s geopolitical landscape reshaped.
Perhaps the biggest fallout is the hit on Iran, which has lost a key ally in its proxy fight with Israel: Hamas, Tehran’s proxy in Gaza, congratulated Syrian rebels Monday for toppling Assad, and reports suggested Hamas may be more willing to negotiate a hostage return with Israel. Russia’s influence in the region — it has military bases in Syria — has also taken a hit.
Ultimately, the biggest player in Syria’s future may prove to be US President-elect Donald Trump, analysts said, as well as crucial mediators like Turkey, which backed some of the rebel groups, and US ally Israel.
SIGNALS
Israel is approaching the Syrian regime change with caution
The overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria is, on the one hand, good news for Israel as it removes another key node in Iran’s proxy network and loosens Tehran’s grip on the region’s power centers. It could also offer an “effective excuse” for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to postpone a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, Haaertz argued. However, some of the rebel factions are suspected of having current links to Al-Qaeda, the outlet reported, even though some have sought to rebrand themselves ideologically to gain Western support: “Their basic ideology likely remains unchanged, as does their attitude toward Israel.” To that end, Israel launched a ground operation and struck Syria’s arms depot Monday in a signal to the rebels to “keep their distance.”
Russia’s loss may be Washington’s gain
Assad’s ouster is a blow to Russia’s influence in the Middle East: Syria has long been considered Moscow’s “crown jewel” in the region, The New York Times wrote. Russia permanently losing access to Syria would be “of huge strategic advantage to the United States,” the outlet added. US President-elect Donald Trump has said he is not interested in engaging in Syria, however the situation could prove an “interesting early test” for Trump’s relationship with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Russia’s fall back is also advantageous to Israel: Netanyahu has been “quite deferential to Russia on Ukrainian issues” out of concern that Moscow might supply Syria with weapons to attack Israel, a Middle East analyst told Politico, but Putin no longer has that leverage.
Turkey weighs Kurdish autonomy and refugee crisis
For the Kurdish people based in northern Syria — whose military factions the US supported in their fight against the Assad regime — are living through “historic moments,” including the prospect of autonomy under a new Syrian government, Middle East news site EA WorldView wrote. Any attempt to create a Kurdish autonomous zone would largely depend on support from Turkey, however: Ankara has a fractious relationship to Turkey’s own sizable Kurdish population and “the last thing [Ankara] wants is a Kurdish-controlled autonomous region on its border,” The Associated Press wrote. Turkey could push for “a stable period of transition” in Syria that would see millions of Syrian refugees currently in Turkey return to the country.