The News
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s vaccine skepticism is getting outsized attention in his bid to become Donald Trump’s Health and Human Services secretary — but his views on agriculture and abortion are shaping up as the bigger concerns in the Republican Senate.
As Kennedy arrives on Capitol Hill this week for crucial private meetings with senators, Republicans are preparing to press him on his antipathy toward industrialized agriculture and his more liberal abortion stance. While GOP senators are willing to give him a chance to explain himself, Kennedy allies inside Trump’s network and Senate Republicans are already identifying abortion and agriculture as the biggest potential weak spots.
Kennedy has likened hog farms to a terrorist threat and pummelled subsidies for seed oils, both of which are big products in Midwest and Plains states. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said he’s already hearing from farm groups back home that are concerned about Kennedy.
“He’s made some statements about pigs and about GMO corn and soybeans. I can’t believe that he’s going to have a problem with that. But if he does, he has a problem with me,” Grassley told Semafor, predicting that “when he gets a chance to clarify it, he’s not going to come out anti-agriculture.”
Kennedy’s confirmation may prove the ultimate test of Trump’s sway over the Hill GOP. Matt Gaetz bowed out as the attorney general pick while facing major ethics problems, but Kennedy could prove a more substantively challenging vote for Republican senators: He’s a former Democrat with environmental and abortion views that fit that party better than the GOP.
Republicans generally feel little loyalty to someone who has criticized them so recently. They do, however, feel loyalty to Trump that could extend to Kennedy.
A transition spokesperson said the “immensely prepared” Kennedy will meet this week with 25 GOP senators, including moderate Sen. Lisa Murkowski, GOP leaders and key committee chairs.
When it comes to agriculture, Kennedy’s focus on weaning the US off ultraprocessed food is gaining currency in both parties, but farm-state Republicans said in interviews that he cannot afford to browbeat Big Agriculture.
Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., praised Kennedy’s “push toward more nutritious food” and his “ideas about regenerative agriculture, fewer pesticides,” but warned against imposing “any type of mandate” on farm states that feed consumers in huge numbers.
And Kennedy will face scrutiny of his past support for abortion rights in a GOP conference dominated by anti-abortion senators. Anti-abortion activists quickly raised concerns after Trump tapped him, with former Vice President Mike Pence calling on Senate Republicans to reject the nomination.
Inside Trump’s orbit, there’s already some fretting that anti-abortion pressure may end up decisive. With Roe vs. Wade already overturned, activists have at times fallen out of step with Trump — and according to one Kennedy ally in Trump’s orbit, they’re “telling senators that they will mobilize their membership” against Republicans who back Kennedy ahead of the midterms.
It’s not clear whether Kennedy has developed an answer that will satisfy those qualms.
“The pro-life leaders … have nothing to lose by lobbying against Kennedy,” the Kennedy ally told Semafor. “They can’t be talked off the ledge.”
A second person close to Kennedy downplayed the potential downside of the nominee’s abortion stance, telling Semafor that the issue wasn’t central during his presidential run and that he plans to follow Trump’s lead. (Trump signaled he’d leave abortion to the states during the later part of his campaign.).
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Kennedy allies aligned with Trump believe he can clear the hurdle of his past comments on agriculture. The first Kennedy ally pointed to Trump’s nomination of Brooke Rollins as agriculture secretary as potentially helpful, given that she is closer to farm industry interests.
Even that’s not all good news for Kennedy: His supporters in Trump’s circle fear that Rollins will ultimately get in the way of Kennedy’s “Make America Healthy Again” efforts for that very reason. The Agriculture Department would be in charge of enacting some of the food changes that Kennedy hopes to implement.
“She helps him” get confirmed, but also leads him “to MAHA’s grave,” this person lamented.
The second person close to Kennedy described concerns over Rollins heading up USDA as “understandable,” but maintained that the two have “a good relationship” — and argued that she shares many of Kennedy’s concerns when it comes to food.
On the abortion front, Republicans will have to contend with their past criticism of current HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra’s record on the issue. Becerra held events on abortion rights and criticized the downfall of Roe.
“In previous administrations, the belief was that [the health secretary’s] view on the issue of abortion was important,” said Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan., who is withholding judgment on Kennedy for now but said abortion is a “consideration” in his nomination.
Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., is expected to meet with Kennedy this week and said he’ll be “asking questions about his positions on life.” Daines also signaled he’s likely to support Kennedy and said he’ll probably be confirmed.
Of course, Kennedy’s past criticism of the Covid vaccine and other inoculations will also come up in his Hill meetings. He’ll need to make sure not to offend outgoing Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, a polio survivor warning nominees to “steer clear” of anti-vaccine views, as well as hardliners on abortion and farm-state senators.
The View From The Left
Republicans have privately speculated that Kennedy could get some Senate Democratic votes. One GOP senator said there’s a disagreement within the party about how many, estimating a range between zero and five.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., said he’s expected to meet with Kennedy this week and isn’t opposing him yet. And that’s about all he’ll say.
“I don’t want to talk about RFK, thanks,” Sanders said curtly.
Even if a Democrat or two support Kennedy, their leaders will want to see Republicans put up 50 votes first. That could be a challenge with a 53-seat majority that includes two independent-minded moderates in Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, as well as McConnell.
Burgess and Shelby’s View
Before the election, Hill Republicans were skeptical that Trump would nominate Kennedy to a Senate-confirmable post — and even more skeptical that he could be confirmed.
So was Burgess (Shelby, not so much).
Two things have happened since to somewhat ease Kennedy’s path. Nominating Kennedy as HHS secretary, rather than another health post, ensured his path to confirmation would run through the Finance Committee, not the health-focused panel where Murkowski and Collins would get an early vote on him.
The second factor is pure politics: After Gaetz’s nomination failed, Trump and his allies are digging in on everyone else. That doesn’t guarantee Kennedy’s confirmation, but it certainly makes most GOP senators think hard about whether they want the headache that comes with opposing Trump’s nominees.
Even when those nominees are ex-Democrats.