The News
Thailand hosted two regional meetings with Asian leaders this week, aimed at ending a bloody civil war in Myanmar that has led to a spiraling political and security crisis.
China, Bangladesh, Laos, India, and Thailand — the five nations that share a border with Myanmar — met together with members of the country’s ruling military junta to discuss plans for possible peace negotiations.
Members of the ASEAN grouping of Southeast Asian nations also met in Bangkok to discuss plans to resolve the almost five-year conflict and the junta’s plans to hold elections in 2025.
Myanmar has been mired in civil war since Feb 2021, after a military coup toppled the democratically elected government, and the junta has since fought to maintain control against armed resistance groups.
The conflict has displaced millions of people, including Rohingya refugees who have fled across the border into Bangladesh, which has the world’s largest refugee camp. China and Thailand have also condemned reports of widespread human and drug trafficking that have occurred at their borders with Myanmar.
SIGNALS
Junta’s election promises are ‘a trap of diplomacy’
Myanmar’s military junta has vowed to hold elections next year, but experts say these promises should be eyed with skepticism. Thailand said this week it had signaled to the junta that any elections should be free and fair, with the country’s foreign minister emphasizing that any vote must be “inclusive” for the whole country, adding that Myanmar’s neighbors would advise but not interfere. Yet the junta’s promises to hold elections should not be trusted, Myanmar expert David Scott Mathieson told Deutsche Welle: “This is a trap of diplomacy. If any interlocutor takes election preparations seriously, they have doomed the country to prolonged conflict.”
Timing could be right for peace talks, and Thailand is key
Myanmar’s military has spent the last couple of years “on the back foot,” Time reported, and experts say the conflict is likely in its endgame, with the junta facing pressure on several fronts. In April, Thailand’s previous prime minister told Reuters he saw an opening for talks, and a recent string of ASEAN summits focused on the conflict suggests a renewed effort by the bloc to reach a peace agreement. Bangkok has a strong incentive to broker a deal: The countries share an almost 1,500-mile border and Thailand has taken on an estimated two million migrants, making it the country most affected by the conflict, outside Myanmar. However, for talks to be beneficial, “Bangkok will need to be more engaged and assertive,” focusing not just on aid but peace and democracy, one veteran Thai journalist told Deutsche Welle.
China changes its approach to the conflict
China has consistently backed both sides in Myanmar’s conflict, with weapons originating in the country held by both the ruling junta and rebel groups, Radio Free Asia wrote — in an attempt to ensure that the Chinese government is always seen favorably. However, Beijing has made a renewed effort to encourage peace talks in light of recent victories by Myanmar’s rebel forces; as it seeks to prevent total regime collapse and protect its economic assets in the country. Two major rebel groups credited China’s mediation efforts when they announced their readiness for peace talks in recent months. However, political analysts told Voice of America that foreign pressure was unlikely to lead to a ceasefire: ”The junta’s refusal to share power remains the primary obstacle,″ one said. “Peace brought about by pressure cannot last long.”