The News
Donald Trump’s foreign policy stance is becoming increasingly clear, with tariffs on imports and a desire for deal-making at the fore.
For some countries like China, having already dealt with Trump during his first term as US president has enabled Beijing to prepare to confront and mitigate US trade escalations, like 100% duty hikes on all imports.
Meanwhile, one former top European Union official argued that a second Trump presidency could spur European countries to unite to defend their security and economic interests amid the war in Ukraine and widespread economic discontent.
But it is perhaps toward the conflict-ridden Middle East where the Republican’s stance remains the most unclear, with experts divided on whether Trump’s policies will aid in deescalation or inflame tensions further.
SIGNALS
Trump’s ‘personalized’ diplomacy may not work with China
Donald Trump’s invite to Chinese leader Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration illustrates his distinct approach to diplomacy, Foreign Policy wrote, where diplomatic spats “can be settled through personalized meetings with the men in charge.” Face-to-face meetings with Xi during the Republican’s first term, however, resulted in no meaningful deals between the two countries. Trump’s cabinet picks, meanwhile, include several China hawks, and many US diplomats are wary of fostering closer ties with their Chinese counterparts due to security risk fears. Moreover, Chinese leaders “do not look at Trump with fear,” Foreign Affairs wrote. Beijing feels it learned how to deal with the president-elect during his first term and that Trump’s unpredictability could even push some current US allies toward China.
US isolationism presents a challenge and opportunity to Europe
Europe must brace for DonaldTrump’s “potential adversarial policies,” a group of European legal analysts argued. These could include trade tariffs, withdrawing from the Paris climate treaty, and threats to roll back US support for NATO. Yet Trump’s “America first” ethos could also “act as a trigger for Europe to deal with its most pressing issues,” former European Union Commission President José Manuel Barroso wrote for think tank Chatham House. Already, European NATO members are increasing their defense spending and working to curb illegal migration in an effort to bolster security. Trump’s trade threats could also force Brussels to finally address its decades-long economic vulnerabilities, such as energy dependence, Barroso argued.
Trump represents a ‘wild card’ for Middle East stability
Experts remained divided over how Donald Trump’s foreign policy could shape the Middle East. On one hand, the president-elect could “reinforce de-escalatory trends” already evident in the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, liberal think tank Center for American Progress argued, and Trump’s transition team has sought to take some credit for the pause in fighting. Trump could have more political leverage over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu than Joe Biden, and could more effectively push for a ceasefire in Gaza. Yet ther is also the potential for Trump to “intentionally or unintentionally, further fuel the conflict,” the think tank argued, and the president-elect has threatened Hamas with “all hell to pay” if it does not release all remaining hostages to Israel.