Principals

1. Biden’s Hispanic vote woes
2. US Ukraine funding dries up
3. 2024’s new laws
4. Israel’s big court ruling
5. Xi warns Taiwan
6. Fetterman talks border politics

PDB: The campaign promises Biden has and hasn’t fulfilled

Bidens return to D.C. … Johnson, other GOPers head to U.S.-Mexico border … Japan Airlines plane bursts into flames at Tokyo airport

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

Biden’s Hispanic struggles are real, leaders warn

President Biden is heading into 2024 with concerning numbers among Hispanic voters: A new USA Today/Suffolk survey shows him trailing Donald Trump by five percentage points, with many reluctant to back either candidate. While that’s rougher than most polls, the overall trend has Biden’s support trailing his 2020 margins — and Hispanic leaders tell Semafor’s Shelby Talcott that matches what they’re seeing on the ground. “It’s a matador red flag flying out there — the Hispanic vote is totally up for grabs,” Domingo Garcia, president of the League of United Latin American Citizens, told Semafor. “[Trump’s] cutting the margins. And in battleground states like Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, that can be a big difference.” The problems they cite are similar to Biden’s problems with the broader electorate: dissatisfaction with the economy, concern over record-high border crossings, and lack of excitement over his policy accomplishments. Democrats are hoping wayward Biden supporters will return home as the top of the ticket becomes clearer. “What we have seen is when you talk to those folks who maybe had supported Biden in ‘20 and are telling people they’re undecided now — they’re horrified of Trump,” Matt Barreto, a Democratic advisor, said. “There’s almost no chance they’re going to vote for Trump.”

Ukraine war intensifies as aid dries up

As Washington wrestles with the question of future funding for Ukraine, Russia’s nearly two-year war seems to be intensifying. Russian missiles and drones hit Kyiv and Kharkiv on Tuesday, causing deaths and dozens of injuries days after Russia vowed to retaliate for a Ukrainian strike on the Russian border city Belgorod. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on X that Ukraine intercepted 60 missiles in the Kyiv area alone. After a $250 million funding package sent to Ukraine last week, the Pentagon is out of funds to replace weapons taken from U.S. stocks for Ukraine, according to spokesman Lt. Col. Garron Garn. The Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, another avenue of military aid, is also out of funding. President Biden could still authorize up to $4.2 billion in weapons transfers to Ukraine through his so-called presidential drawdown authority, but that would cause a shortfall in U.S. stocks that wouldn’t immediately be filled. Senators are still negotiating a possible border security deal in order to unlock funding for Ukraine and Israel that could include stricter asylum rules and other measures. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. said on CBS that he wants the Biden administration to agree to use a Title 42-type authority to stem the flow of migrants at the southern border. “We’re having to pull teeth to change policy,” he said. And Politico reports this morning that parole — one of the stickier issues in the talks and a priority for Republicans — may be off the table, which would make a deal more difficult to pass through Congress.

2024 means new rules at the federal and state levels

New year means new rules. The Biden administration’s foreign battery sourcing requirements for electric vehicles qualifying for federal tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act took effect on Monday. This resulted in the number of vehicles qualifying for the $7,500 credits dropping from 43 to 19, according to Reuters. The rules are primarily designed to exclude products that rely on parts made by companies controlled by China or other “foreign entities of concern.” Meanwhile, another part of the Inflation Reduction Act allowing EV point-of-sale rebates also kicked in. States also saw major laws impacting everything from gender transition care to minimum wages take hold on Jan. 1, according to the New York Times, which chronicles the most high-profile ones. They include California’s ban on people carrying firearms in most public places and a Texas law barring DEI programs at publicly funded colleges in the state.

Netanyahu suffers blow from Israel Supreme Court ruling

Israel may be on the verge of internal crisis after the country’s Supreme Court narrowly overturned a judicial law backed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu designed to curtail the court’s own power. The 8-7 ruling is a major blow to Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition, which pushed an aggressive judicial overhaul plan last year despite large protests and even direct criticism from the White House. The developments could have implications for the Gaza war effort, which temporarily papered over the electorate’s deep divisions: Axios’ Barak Ravid notes that a strong reaction from Netanyahu and his allies “could push former Defense Minister Benny Gantz to leave the emergency unity government” formed following the Oct. 7 Hamas attack. Netanyahu’s Likud party called the ruling “in opposition to the nation’s desire for unity, especially in a time of war.” Israel has started to move some forces out of the Gaza Strip, a possible indication of a shift to a more targeted phase of the war — something President Biden and his aides have been advocating.

Two weeks before Taiwan elections, Xi says ‘reunification’ inevitable

Chinese leader Xi Jinping said during his New Year’s address that China’s “reunification” with Taiwan is inevitable, using stronger language than he did in last year’s address — and doing so less than two weeks before Taiwan’s elections. Taiwan’s outgoing president, President Tsai Ing-wen, responded by saying that Taiwan’s relations with China must be decided by the “joint will of Taiwan’s people.” Taiwan-China relations have been a dominant issue of the election campaign, which features a candidate from the more pro-independence ruling Democratic Progressive Party and another from the opposition Kuomintang party, which favors closer ties with Beijing. China’s military drills around Taiwan have been a primary source of tension between Washington and Beijing. President Biden also warned Xi back in November not to interfere in the upcoming elections during their meeting in San Francisco. The outcome of Taipei’s Jan. 13 vote could raise the stakes for the Biden-Xi relationship, which apparently began 2024 on a positive note as the two wrote to one another recognizing the 45th anniversary of diplomatic ties between Washington and Beijing.

Fetterman: Border situation ‘really is a crisis’

Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa. says there “really is a crisis” on the southern border, telling Semafor that he’s “leaned into” the issue by telling progressives to get serious about it. “It shouldn’t be considered anti-immigrant or xenophobic if you believe it’s important to secure the border,” Fetterman said in an interview over the holidays. At the same time, he added that maintaining protections for “dreamers” — immigrants (like his wife Gisele) who were brought to the country as children — is his “bright red line.” Fetterman’s criticism of the left on immigration, along with his appearance at pro-Israel rallies after Oct. 7, has infuriated some progressives in recent weeks. The senator said he hadn’t changed his politics since 2016, when he endorsed Bernie Sanders for president and called his own campaign part of a “progressive movement.” He always held these views, he said, and supported Sanders for economic policies that “have now become political boilerplate” in the Democratic Party.

— David Weigel

Look for more from the Fetterman interview in David Weigel’s Americana newsletter this week. Sign up here to have it delivered straight to your inbox.

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Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: The six Washington storylines to watch in 2024 are: government funding negotiations, the crisis at the southern border, the Ukraine aid debate, Israel assistance, 2024 congressional races, and Donald Trump’s influence on the GOP.

Playbook: The super PAC supporting Nikki Haley is out with a new ad attacking Ron DeSantis on China that will air in Iowa.

Axios: Israel rejected a proposal from Hamas for a deal to release hostages that was communicated through Qatar and Egypt on Sunday.

White House

• President Biden, along with first lady Jill Biden, dropped in on ABC’s New Year’s Eve show to tell Ryan Seacrest that he’s been eating a lot of pasta, chicken parmesan, and chocolate chip ice cream during the holiday season. He also said he hoped Americans would realize in 2024 that the U.S. is in a “better position than any country in the world to lead the world.”
• The Bidens will return to Washington tonight from their holiday vacation in St. Croix. Biden is scheduled to travel to Philadelphia on Saturday, the third anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.
• In Semafor Media, White House communications director Ben LaBolt dinged outlets for “widespread coverage predicting a recession” last year that never panned out.

Congress

• House Speaker Mike Johnson and other Republicans are traveling to Eagle Pass, Texas to visit the southern border tomorrow.
• The House and Senate return next week. The first government funding deadline is in 17 days.
• Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy is officially gone from Congress, leaving the GOP’s slim House majority at 220-213.
• Former Texas Democratic Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, who was the first Black woman elected to a seat in Dallas, died at the age of 88. President Biden remembered her as an “icon and mentor to generations of public servants.”
• Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries’ father, Marland Jeffries, passed away at 85.
• Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo. switched congressional districts in her 2024 reelection bid, a decision she later partially blamed on Hollywood donors like Barbra Streisand.

Outside the Beltway

Texas has been busing migrants to New Jersey since Saturday to skirt new rules imposed by New York City.

Economy

South Korea is now shipping more goods to the U.S. than it is to China for the first time in two decades.

National Security

A U.S. aircraft carrier sent to the eastern Mediterranean to help protect Israel is headed home.

Foreign Policy

• Powerful earthquakes hit Japan on New Year’s Day, causing fatalities and destroying hundreds of buildings. President Biden, who along with Vice President Harris was briefed on the situation Monday, said in a statement the U.S. would provide “any necessary assistance.”
• South Korea’s liberal opposition leader Lee Jae-myun was stabbed in the neck Tuesday in the port city of Busan by a man who approached him asking for his autograph.
• The Biden administration successfully urged Dutch chip equipment company ASML to cancel shipments to China ahead of an export ban on the equipment. — Bloomberg
• This month’s elections in Bangladesh and Taiwan kick off a year in which more than 2 billion people will cast ballots worldwide: Votes are expected in countries ranging from highly rated democracies such as Finland to autocracies like Russia.

Courts

Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts weighed in on the advantages and perils of artificial intelligence in his year-end report on the federal courts, but didn’t mention ethics rules or the role the court is expected to play in legal challenges circling former President Donald Trump.

2024

• The Republican Iowa caucuses begin in 13 days.
• Both Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said they would pardon Donald Trump if he is convicted of any of the 91 felony charges he currently faces. — Washington Post

Big Read

Infrastructure, lower prescription drug costs, stronger alliances: Those are some of the campaign promises President Biden has fulfilled in his first three years, according to a useful story from the Wall Street Journal that also tracks “stalled” promises and those the president has turned back on. Among Biden’s campaign trail pledges that haven’t been kept: his promise not to build another foot of wall at the southern border, and his vow to stop new offshore drilling.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Harvard students wrote separate editorials in the Harvard Crimson calling on the university’s embattled president, Claudine Gay, to resign.

What the Right isn’t reading: Several current and former senators expressed regret over their opposition to gun control measures immediately following the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary shooting in interviews with the Washington Post.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Jon Tester is a Democratic senator from Montana who is up for reelection in 2024.

• Meet China’s new defense minister. A naval commander has been appointed to the key post months after the unexplained disappearance of his predecessor.
• The legal war over Trump’s candidacy grows. But courts and legal experts are divided over whether an obscure constitutional clause applies to the former president.
• South Africa takes Israel to court. The African nation filed a case at the International Court of Justice, alleging that Israel is committing “genocidal acts” during its campaign against Hamas. It’s the latest downturn in souring South Africa-Israel relations.