Africa

Elections are likely to be a defining feature of this year across the world. Voters are set to cast their ballots in more than 50 countries over the next 12 months. The most hotly anticipated elections in Africa will take place in the continent’s most industrialized economy and a West African nation whose reputation for political stability is likely to be tested. Those votes — in South Africa and Senegal — are among 15 polls scheduled on the continent this year.

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) is in danger of losing its majority for the first time since taking power 30 years ago following the end of the apartheid era. Analysts predict swaths of the electorate could turn their back on the ANC in the general election due to their handling of struggling state run companies that have overseen regular electricity blackouts, backlogs at ports and freight train networks, along with alleged corruption. Even if the ANC loses its majority, it’s still widely expected to be the largest political party, which would see it form a coalition for the first time.

Voters will choose a new president in Senegal where Macky Sall has served the maximum two terms. In a subregion beset by coups in recent years, the nation has stood out for its peaceful transfers of power in recent decades. But a legal battle over the eligibility of opposition leader Ousmane Sonko to run has prompted protests in the last few months. It still remains unclear whether Sonko, who is popular among Senegalese youth, will run and the uncertainty has created a volatile atmosphere around next month’s vote.

Other notable democratic exercises will take place in Ghana, where a December election will yield a new president because Nana Akufo-Addo has served two terms, plus Chad and Guinea — both of which are ruled by military juntas. Chad’s military rulers have vowed to hold an election in 2024. And the head of Guinea’s ruling junta has said a constitutional referendum will be held as part of a transition back to civilian rule. The success or failure of votes in those two countries could influence putschists elsewhere in West Africa.

— Alexis Akwagyiram

Semafor’s 2024 World Economy Summit, on April 17-18, will feature conversations with global policymakers and power brokers in Washington, against the backdrop of the IMF and World Bank meetings.

Chaired by former U.S. Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein, and in partnership with BCG, the summit will feature 150 speakers across two days and three different stages. Join Semafor for conversations with the people shaping the global economy.

The business and economic environment will vary across the continent this year, making some countries and sectors more attractive to investors than others. We spoke to some influential Semafor Africa readers for their insights on the trends that are likely to shape the next 12 months.

January 14-19, 2024 | Switzerland

Semafor Africa will be on the ground at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, covering what’s happening on the main stages and lifting the curtain on what’s happening behind them.

Sign up to receive our pop-up newsletter: Semafor Davos (and if you’re flying to Zurich let us know so we can invite you to one of Semafor’s private convenings).

Ethiopia enters 2024 amid cascading economic crisis

Ethiopia has begun 2024 with authorities battling to revive its economy and boost investor confidence.

A growing number of foreign and local investors are considering exiting the Ethiopian market in the face of foreign exchange shortages, ongoing regional unrest, an unemployment crisis, and inflation hovering around 30%.

The country ended 2023 with a default on its eurobond payments after being granted a two-year reprieve while loans from China are mounting. Reconstructing the war-torn northern Ethiopian region of Tigray may require more than $28 billion, according to government estimates, while the latest flare-ups in the nearby Amhara region have derailed economic revival besides destroying infrastructures developed from borrowed money.

Exports from Ethiopia are also suffering from stagnant production levels. Furthermore, new European Union regulations prohibiting imports of agricultural goods produced in deforested areas now jeopardize Ethiopia’s largest export and its crown jewel — coffee.

Overcoming these myriad hurdles will not be easy. Ethiopia’s reconstruction needs are immense while export revenues face new impediments. The debt relief, which was granted in November by the G20’s Common Framework and by China in October, merely buys a little breathing room. It does not fully resolve the liquidity crisis in Africa’s second most populous nation.

This year will be important in laying a “foundation for future growth” through the “launch of capital markets, debt restructuring, and tightening of monetary policy,” Sam Rosmarin, an American investor based in Ethiopia, told Semafor Africa. “It remains to be seen how far down the path of liberalization Ethiopia will need to venture in order to satisfy its external financiers.”

— Samuel Getachew in Addis Ababa

🇹🇩 Chadian opposition leader Succes Masra was appointed prime minister of the country’s transitional government by the ruling military junta. Masra had been a staunch critic of the junta which seized power in April 2021 after the death of longtime leader Idriss Deby. He fled the country after security forces killed dozens of demonstrators in the capital N’Djamena in October 2022. He recently returned from exile after reaching an agreement with the junta.

🌍 Airtel Africa CEO Segun Ogunsanya is set to retire from the company effective July 1, 2024. He took over as CEO in October 2021, after nine years at the helm of Airtel Nigeria. Ogunsanya, 58, will be replaced by Sunil Taldar, a Bharti Airtel insider who has led various divisions of the company in India since 2016. In a statement issued on Jan. 2, Airtel Africa credited Ogunsanya with delivering double-digit revenue growth “over many quarters’'. He is set to become the inaugural chair of Airtel Africa Charitable Foundation.

🇨🇩 DR Congo’s President Felix Tshisekedi won a second five-year term in office, according to provisional election results announced on Sunday. The electoral commission said he secured more than 70% of the vote. Moise Katumbi came second with 18%. The result was labeled a sham by opposition candidates who said the election was undermined by logistical problems. They called for a rerun. Nearly 20 million people voted in the Dec. 20 election, which had a turnout of more than 40%. The final results are expected on Jan. 10 with the president due to be sworn in at the end of the month.

🇿🇦 Israel said it will appear before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to contest South Africa’s allegation that it had committed genocidal acts in Gaza. Pretoria on Friday filed the case at the ICJ, which is the UN’s highest court. Israel will appear before the court to “dispel South Africa’s absurd blood libel,” an Israeli government spokesman said on Tuesday. South Africa, a longtime supporter of Palestinians, has repeatedly condemned Israel’s actions since the start of the war with Hamas that followed the militant group’s attacks of Oct. 7.

🇪🇹🇸🇴 Landlocked Ethiopia signed a port deal with the self-declared republic of Somaliland for access to the Red Sea, prompting criticism by Somalia. Ethiopia said the agreement, signed on Monday, would enable it to set up commercial marine operations and provide access to a leased military base on the Red Sea. It also said it would recognize Somaliland — which declared autonomy from Somalia in 1991 — as an independent nation in due course. Somalia said the deal “endangers the stability and peace of the region” and recalled its ambassador in Ethiopia. A recent call by Ethiopia’s prime minister for Red Sea access raised tensions in the region.

• U.S. President Joe Biden is heading into 2024 with concerning polling numbers among Hispanic voters. “The Hispanic vote is totally up for grabs,” said the head of a leading civil society group.
• Russia launched a barrage of drone and missile strikes on Kyiv in what it described as a retaliatory attack against Ukraine’s targeting of a Russian border city. Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would intensify attacks on Ukraine.
• Some of the most interesting Semafor Media readers looked back on their bold, totally wrong predictions for 2023. Mark Cuban, Radhika Jones, and Ben Shapiro were among those who shared details of assumptions that didn’t pan out.

If you’re enjoying the Semafor Africa newsletter and finding it useful, please share with your family, friends, election observers, and long-term African investors. We’d love to have them aboard, too.

🇨🇲 Happy 64th independence day to the people of Cameroon. (Jan. 1)

🇸🇩 Wishing peace for the people of Sudan on its 68th independence day. (Jan. 1)

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— Yinka, Alexis, Alexander Onukwue, Martin Siele, and Muchira Gachenge