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“The thing that was really revolutionary is the idea of truly marrying economic growth with low carb͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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January 9, 2025
semafor

Net Zero

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Hotspots
  1. Biden’s climate legacy
  2. Shifting VC priorities
  3. Crickets for Arctic drilling
  4. Big Oil cuts expectations
  5. Insurance industry burns

Carbon credits in Indonesia and carbon capture in North Dakota.

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First Word

The recent mass exodus of banks from climate groups may be less of a setback than it seems. JPMorgan on Tuesday became the last of the six major US banks to bail out of the Net Zero Banking Alliance, a group that was formed in 2021 whose members committed to cutting emissions from their lending and investment portfolios. JPM didn’t offer a specific reason for leaving the group. But it’s safe to assume the defections are a response to a political climate increasingly hostile to anything that smacks of woke-ism on Wall Street. Still, it’s not clear a more meaningful retreat is underway. Apart from leaving the group, the banks didn’t announce any changes to their existing plans to increase investments in the energy transition and decarbonize parts of their portfolios.

That’s not to say that banks are perfectly aligned with an ideal climate future. But from its inception, NZBA was largely a marketing exercise. Members never planned to suddenly drop their fossil fuel clients. The group was never the malevolent anti-carbon cartel some Republicans made it out to be; neither was it a silver-bullet solution financing the energy transition. Banks exist to make money, and they serve the economy as it is, with limited powers to enact sweeping changes to other companies’ carbon footprints. NZBA was useful in helping banks coordinate on methods and standards for measuring and reporting their emissions. Now that most of them do that, the marketing upside of staying in the group may not be worth drawing the fire of anti-ESG crusaders.

The real test for banks is how much more capital they’re willing to put on the table for the transition, whether they brag about it or not. “While this exodus might not ultimately — and certainly not immediately — impact net financial flows to energy transition projects,” said Vanessa Fajans-Turner, executive director of Environmental Advocates NY, “it certainly doesn’t inspire confidence, or pave the way for them to materially grow.”

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1

Trump can’t repeal the most important part of Biden’s climate legacy

 
Tim McDonnell
Tim McDonnell
 
Solar panels at the background as U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during a visit to Vernon Electric Cooperative in Westby, Wisconsin.
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

The Biden administration took what is likely to be one of its last actions on climate, detailing a new clean energy tax credit designed to survive scrutiny by Republicans and President-elect Donald Trump.

The credit follows a basic formula that has applied to wind and solar projects for more than a decade, and extends it to a wider range of low-carbon energy sources, including geothermal, nuclear, advanced batteries, and some kinds of biofuels. The credit could pay out more than $250 billion over the next decade, and arguably be the single most impactful element of Biden’s climate agenda.

No amount of careful design can fully protect that agenda from rollback under Trump and his allies in Congress. But ultimately, Biden’s most important legacy on climate is about more than any one tax credit or regulation, former officials and analysts told Semafor. It’s about meaningfully linking climate to the economy, and proving that the energy transition can revitalize US industry. That’s an unprecedented approach that will set the tone and structure of US environmental policy for the foreseeable future, and one that Trump can’t repeal.

Read on for more on the most durable parts of Biden’s climate legacy. →

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2

Shifting VC priorities

Climate tech investors are shifting their focus away from the transportation sector and doubling down on clean power in response to booming demand from data centers.

A chart showing global venture capital investment in climate tech by sub-sector.

Global venture funding for energy startups rose to $9.4 billion in 2024, according to a new analysis from Sightline Climate, topping transportation for the first time in at least five years. But that doesn’t mean low-carbon vehicles are losing steam. Just the opposite, the Sightline report argues: Transportation startups are growing beyond VC, and taking more of their support from private equity, banks, and other conventional large investors as the technology goes mainstream. Other sectors could follow: VC funds that target startups at late commercialization stages of growth have a lot of capital on standby to deploy, which could help push more nascent technologies across the “valley of death.”

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3

Crickets for Arctic drilling

A photo of an Arctic drilling ship
ISPI/Creative Commons

An auction for oil and gas drilling rights on US federal land in the Arctic received no bids, the latest sign that fossil fuel companies have no appetite for drilling in an area that Trump said he wants to develop. The auction, in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, was mandated by Congress, and came days after Biden moved to protect vast swaths of coastal waters from new drilling. “We’re going to be opening up ANWR,” Trump said on Tuesday. “We’re going to be doing all sorts of things that nobody ever thought was even possible.” Yet the industry doesn’t seem interested. A 2021 auction was also a bust. Drilling in the ecologically sensitive refuge would invite a storm of lawsuits from environmental groups. Moreover, it’s very expensive and logistically complicated at a time when the biggest oil companies are focused on cutting production costs and sticking to more accessible, well-established fields.

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4

Big Oil cuts expectations

Analysts’ expectation for Shell’s fourth quarter profits, more than $1 billion below previous estimates after the company warned of numerous financial headwinds. Shell said it will earn less than previously expected on gas and power trading, and will also face up to $3 billion in charges related to scaling back its renewable energy division and paying for pollution permits in the US and Germany. It also cut expectations for liquefied natural gas production. Separately, ExxonMobil warned of lackluster fourth quarter earnings, too, as a result of low oil prices.

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5

Insurance industry burns

A view as wildfires swept through Altadena, California
REUTERS/Zaydee Sanchez

The wildfires that swept through the Los Angeles area this week could accelerate the flight of home insurance providers from California. The fires have burned at least 300 structures and continue to threaten tens of thousands more, including some of the most valuable residential real estate in the country. Experts expect the fires will be among the most expensive in US history, and come at a time when many private insurers had already abandoned the state because they couldn’t raise premiums enough to keep pace with escalating climate risk. The state-backed insurer designed as a backstop to this exodus is already overstretched — with nearly half a trillion dollars in exposure on its books — and could be forced to collect fees from private insurers to cover payouts it can’t afford through its own premiums. That would drive more insurers to leave the state, making it even more difficult for buyers to secure a mortgage, putting the entire housing market in jeopardy.

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The CEO Signal

Introducing The CEO Signal from Semafor Business, an exclusive, invitation-only membership for chief executives of the world’s largest companies.

Helmed by veteran Financial Times editor Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson, the initiative builds on the success of Liz Hoffman’s Semafor Business and sets a new standard for how global leaders connect, learn, and navigate future challenges. Focusing on exclusivity over scale, the platform will debut as a weekly briefing in January 2025 offering candid, practical insights and interviews tailored for global CEOs who are short on time and seeking actionable intelligence.

Request an invitation for the debut edition here.

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Power Plays

New Energy

A chart showing the rapid fall in Vestas’ stock price since Trump’s re-election.

Fossil Fuels

Finance

Politics & Policy

Minerals & Mining

EVs

Personnel

  • Doug Burgum, the North Dakota governor and Trump’s nominee to lead the Interior Department, is a champion of oil and gas production — and of carbon capture technology.
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Semafor Spotlight
Steven Marcus/Reuters

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang energized the Consumer Electronics Show with the announcement of a new gaming GPU and his revealing comments about robotics, Semafor’s Reed Albergotti reported. “I think 2025 is going to mark an inflection point for robotics, perhaps not in the form of consumer products, but in breakthroughs that will lead to some mind-blowing advances down the road,” Albergotti wrote.

For more on AI breakthroughs in 2025, subscribe to Semafor’s Tech newsletter. →

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