Gulf

1. Abu Dhabi’s solar bet
2. US-Saudi oil trade plunges
3. Saudi’s nuclear ambitions
4. Gulf drives global sukuk
5. Dubai: influencers welcome

Helicopter school runs coming soon.

A $6 billion (solar) moonshot

The UAE plans to develop a renewable energy complex capable of providing uninterrupted clean power using massive batteries. The price tag for such a facility: $6 billion. Abu Dhabi clean energy company Masdar and a local utility will build 5 gigawatts of solar capacity alongside 19 gigawatt-hours of battery storage.

Solving for renewable energy intermittency “has been the moonshot challenge of our time,” Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and chairman of Masdar, said at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week. “This will, for the first time ever, transform renewable energy into baseload energy.”

The project is slated for completion by 2027. The UAE plans to generate a total capacity of 19.8 gigawatts of clean energy by 2030 and expects to invest as much as $54 billion to reach that target.

US is almost off Saudi oil

US imports of Saudi crude continued their multi-year decline in 2024, bringing a long-held goal of US presidents — independence from Middle East oil — within reach. The shift also opens up greater diplomatic options in the Middle East. “For incoming President Donald Trump, it presents a white canvas to redo foreign policy in the Middle East in ways that his predecessors could only dream of,” according Bloomberg’s energy columnist Javier Blas. While eliminating Saudi imports may be possible, Blas stressed that the kingdom remains a global force in oil markets, capable of influencing what Americans pay at the pump, even if the hydrocarbon doesn’t come directly from Saudi Arabia.

Saudi steps up nuclear ambitions

Saudi Arabia plans to enrich and sell its domestic uranium reserves as part of broader efforts to develop its nascent nuclear program. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said “we will do a yellowcake,” referring to a powdered concentrate of the mineral used to prepare uranium fuel for nuclear reactors. The remarks will heighten growing concerns of a regional nuclear arms race, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman telling Fox News last year that if Iran were to obtain a nuclear weapon, then “we will have to get one.” While Riyadh and Tehran have been restoring ties, the Director General of the IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, told Semafor last month that Iran is “dramatically” increasing its uranium enrichment — bringing it ever closer to the level needed for weapons.

Gulf sukuk splash continues

Financing needs in the Gulf, led by Saudi Arabia, are expected to fuel global sukuk issuance this year. Economic diversification programs in the region, as well as Indonesia and Malaysia, will likely lead those governments “to take any windows of opportunity to issue in the market,” according to S&P Global Ratings. Foreign currency-denominated issuance will continue to be popular — after rising 29% in 2024 — with the ratings agency forecasting up to $80 billion of such sales this year. Riyadh has increasingly been tapping debt markets in recent years, and will account for the largest share of Gulf bond maturities from 2025 to 2029, projected at $168 billion, according to KAMCO Investment Co., a Kuwait-based asset manager.

Analysis: Why Dubai is getting many ‘likes’

Dubai wants a piece of the $250 billion creator economy and will likely succeed in becoming a global hub for content creators and influencers, Faisal J. Abbas, the Editor-in-Chief of Arab News, writes in a Semafor column.

“It’s easy to brush off the motive behind attracting TikTokers, Snapchatters, and Instagram influencers as yet another attempt to simply promote Dubai and the UAE,” Abbas wrote. “But there’s more to this push than clicks: For Dubai, which is already the world’s third most visited destination, the creator economy is one more vertical for economic diversification.”

Someday soon, a second-grader in Dubai might complain to their parents about the helicopter queue being too long. In the latest escalation of elite education in the city, the $100 million Gems School of Research and Innovation is set to open in August. According to The National, the campus will feature an Olympic-sized swimming pool, an esports center, an NBA-spec basketball court, and an elevated football field that, naturally, doubles as a helipad. All snark aside, the UAE is planning on introducing air taxis soon, and avoiding terrestrial transport options may be preferred by many people. Pre-K tuition starts at $31,000.

The wildfires that are sweeping Los Angeles may accelerate the flight of home insurance companies, in spite of recent regulatory changes aimed at retaining them, the state’s previous top insurance official told Semafor’s Tim McDonnell.

For California to experience fires like these “was never a question of if, it was a question of when,” the official said.