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In today’s edition: A new administration dawns.͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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January 20, 2025
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Principals

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Today in DC
  1. Trump 2.0
  2. GOP’s congressional road map
  3. Gaza ceasefire
  4. TikTok lifeline
  5. Goolsbee interview
  6. Trump’s Washington
  7. Media shifts

PDB: Trumps launch meme coins

East Coast braces for extreme cold … World Economic Forum kicks off in Davos ... WSJ: Trump will call for ‘revolution of common sense’ in inaugural speech

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1

Trump’s first week in office

Donald Trump attends a pre-inauguration rally
Brian Snyder/Reuters

President-elect Donald Trump plans to start his second term with a bang: According to incoming deputy chief of staff for policy Stephen Miller, his team has drafted over 100 executive orders for Trump to begin signing immediately. The Trump team is still finalizing which executive orders will be signed on Day 1 versus the following days of Trump’s first week, but those early plans are expected to include initiatives targeting immigration, energy, and government reform, as well as pardons for Jan. 6 rioters, directives to undo many of Joe Biden’s policies, and more. And that’s just a start for the incoming president: He’s expected to speak remotely to attendees at the World Economic Forum and may travel to California to view the wildfire damage — and his team has hinted that they’re considering other travel relating to his executive orders, too.

— Shelby Talcott

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2

GOP plots out early days of control

The Capitol during the snow
Jasper Colt/USA Today Network via Reuters

Congressional Republicans are behind schedule on a party-line spending and/or tax bill compared to 2017, but are nonetheless set to send something to Trump to sign as soon as possible. The Senate will pass the Laken Riley Act today, sending it back to the House, and is expected to confirm Marco Rubio as secretary of state this afternoon. It’s possible he’ll be alone in the Cabinet for a day or two, although Pete Hegseth’s Defense nomination, Kristi Noem’s DHS nomination, and Scott Bessent’s Treasury nomination will be quickly ready for floor action. The House will also soon take up forestry legislation, a bill to reclassify fentanyl-related substances, and a “Born Alive” abortion-related bill ahead of the 52nd annual March for Life. Then it’s off to Trump’s Doral resort in Florida to work on party-line agenda plans.

Burgess Everett and Kadia Goba

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3

The path forward in Gaza

Palestinians walking past the rubble of houses and buildings in Gaza
Mahmoud Al-Basos/Reuters

Trump inherits a ceasefire in Gaza that has resulted in the release of three Israeli hostages and 90 Palestinian prisoners. Scores of aid trucks started entering Gaza following the ceasefire’s effective date over the weekend, raising hopes for a permanent end to the 15-month war. Four hostages are expected to be freed in a week’s time, and two Americans — Keith Siegel and Sagui Dekel-Chen — are among the hostages to be let go in the first phase. The hardest part is yet to come, as Israel and Hamas ready for negotiations on a permanent end to the war and as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces pressure from his right flank. Israeli Ambassador to the US Michael Herzog said on Fox News that he envisions “the US and other regional actors” playing a role in post-war Gaza, and he insisted that Hamas would no longer control the territory.

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4

TikTok stays alive — for now

A woman poses with her smartphone displaying the @realdonaldtrump TikTok page
Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

Trump is poised to hand TikTok a lifeline, vowing to sign an executive order delaying the imposition of a US national security ban on the Chinese-owned app. The app briefly went dark on Sunday ahead of the ban taking effect, but service had been restored in the US shortly following Trump’s pledge. Michael Waltz, Trump’s incoming national security adviser who supported the original law in Congress, said Trump needs time to evaluate potential deals on the table for TikTok, which apparently include bids from an artificial intelligence startup and a “Shark Tank” star. On CNN, Waltz also suggested the app could remain Chinese-owned if the US can ensure “the data and the algorithms are fully protected from Chinese interference.” It’s unclear how that would work with the law, which requires ByteDance to sell the app or face a ban — and which the Supreme Court upheld.

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Semafor Exclusive
5

Economic indicators could get ‘foggier’

Austan Goolsbee
Brendan McDermid/Reuters

The Federal Reserve’s job is going to get a “little foggier” in the near term, as the central bank weighs how to respond to inflation indicators that may become more muddled, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told Semafor’s Liz Hoffman. At the same time, Goolsbee swatted away concerns about the economy potentially overheating and insisted the full picture shows a stabilizing labor market. “Everything is always on the table,” Goolsbee said. But for the Fed to raise interest rates, he added, “you’d have to see convincing evidence that the economy is overheating and that we’re not on the path to get to 2% inflation,” which he said he doesn’t see. He made his comments ahead of today’s inauguration; economists have been raising concerns about the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s aggressive tariff plans.

Read on for what Goolsbee had to say about the central bank’s independence. →

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6

Trump’s Washington: Will Scharf

Will Scharf

Trump’s personal lawyer Will Scharf has been tapped for the low-profile, but influential job of White House staff secretary. The role, sometimes referred to as the “nerve center of the White House,” will place Scharf in charge of controlling the paper flow to the Oval Office. He’ll also help determine who gets to give their two cents on speeches and various issues. Scharf has been with Trump through some of the incoming president’s toughest years (he served on Trump’s legal team for his election interference and Supreme Court immunity cases, for instance). His appointment is another example of the soon-to-be-president empowering a trusted ally.

— Shelby Talcott

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7

Media questions for the next 4 years

People watch a Trump rally on Fox News
Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

Trump is set to face a much friendlier, much more decentralized media landscape than the one he navigated in his first term. The eternally tough business environment, coupled with a wave of lawsuits and threats of regulatory action, has already sent a number of media companies and publishers racing to make preemptive concessions to the new president. The public’s changing media consumption habits and Trump’s closeness with Elon Musk, the owner of one of the most influential social media platforms in the world, have both also given Trump a major leg up in his ability to control the American political dialogue. The biggest media stories of the second Trump administration will revolve around how legacy institutions will (or won’t) adapt to this new environment — and how younger upstarts will (or won’t) overtake them.

— Max Tani

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Views

Uncommon Bonds: AI export controls

Welcome to a new daily section in Principals that seeks to broaden our readers’ understanding of how their ideological opposites think and to explore the substance behind polarizing issues. You’re already familiar with our popular Blindspots feature, which highlights stories that are only talked about by half of Washington, and Debatable, a reported look at the debate surrounding a news-making question. Today, we are launching Uncommon Bonds, highlighting surprising alliances that cross traditional lines. Feedback, questions, suggestions for future editions? Contact us through the links below!

A US government push to assert more control over the global export of advanced semiconductors has created dueling alliances across party lines. In one corner are national security hawks who argue that the limits unveiled by the Biden administration are necessary to prevent US technology from falling into the hands of its geopolitical rivals. The Chinese government “is extremely interested in gaining access to the highest-end GPUs or AI chips in order to further their military modernization as well as their surveillance state and persecution of the Uyghurs and other minorities,” said Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi. Meanwhile, bipartisan leaders of the Senate Commerce Committee warn the restrictions could cause the US to cede ground to China, while industry and some European allies have blasted the new rule.

Morgan Chalfant

Read on for why one expert said Trump’s team is unlikely to “fully repeal this or walk away from it.” →

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PDB

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Early signals point to Donald Trump being much more engaged on Capitol Hill this time around compared to his first term. He hosted Senate Republicans for a breakfast at Blair House yesterday, before Stephen Miller briefed Republican lawmakers on the forthcoming executive orders.

Playbook: It’s possible that not all lawmakers will get seats in the Capitol Rotunda today, after the inaugural ceremony was moved indoors due to the extreme cold. “Simply put, there’s not enough room,” one senior Republican aide said. “It’s a shitshow.”

WaPo: “The vibes in Washington were entirely different” ahead of Trump’s first inauguration.

White House

  • President Biden spent his last full day in office in South Carolina, where he spoke at the Royal Missionary Baptist Church.
  • Biden may leave Donald Trump a letter in his desk, carrying on a presidential tradition, though he would be the first to write back to his predecessor. — AP

Congress

  • Nancy Pelosi’s daughter Alexandra called Jill Biden “Lady McBiden.” — Politico
  • A 19-year-old allegedly tried to set fire to the office of Rep. Glenn Grothman, R-Wis., over Grothman’s support of the TikTok ban.

Transition

Donald Trump watches The Village People perform at his rally
Donald Trump watches The Village People perform at his rally. Carlos Barria/Reuters
  • At his rally Sunday night, Donald Trump said he would declassify and release documents on the assassinations of John F. Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr.
  • Donald Trump’s transition team is vetting people to potentially replace Postmaster General Louis DeJoy. — WaPo

Outside the Beltway

  • Vivek Ramaswamy may rethink his involvement in the so-called Department of Government Efficiency as he prepares to launch a bid for Ohio governor. — Politico
  • Pope Francis told Italian media that Donald Trump’s planned immigration raids would be a “disgrace.”

Polls

  • As Joe Biden leaves office, Gallup registers his average job approval rating at 42.4% — the second lowest among post-World War II presidents and higher only than his predecessor and successor Donald Trump.

Business

National Security

  • The incoming Trump administration may not launch immigration raids in Chicago this week, after details leaked to the press.

Foreign Policy

  • Donald Trump has told people he wants to visit China. — WSJ
  • Trump aides have been instructing State Department career staff to resign en masse. — WaPo

Principals Team

Edited by Morgan Chalfant, deputy Washington editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

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One Good Text

Tim Burchett is a Republican congressman from Tennessee.

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Semafor Spotlight
A graphic saying “A great read from Semafor Africa”Members of the Hargeisa Basketball Girls team wrapped in the Somaliland flags walk on Road Number One during the Independence Day Eve celebrations in Hargeisa, Somaliland.
Tiksa Negeri/File Photo/Reuters

An influential group of US lawmakers are calling on the State Department to open a representative office in Somaliland, the breakaway state in Somalia, to counter rising Chinese influence in the region, Semafor’s Yinka Adegoke reports.

For more stories and analysis from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa newsletter. →

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