Net Zero

1. Trump’s LNG expansionism
2. What Biden saved
3. EV assault hits gas
4. Energy conflict resolution
5. Curtains for GFANZ?

Climate vibes at Davos, and EV makers’ unsavory choice.

Donald Trump isn’t attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, but he’s still the talk of the town, and there’s plenty for folks in the Swiss resort to chew on in his first-day climate and energy actions. The business and political leaders in Davos might be worried about climate change — extreme weather was number-two on a ranking of global risks the conference organizers published this week — but they can’t avoid confronting a new US administration that is hell-bent on selling more fossil fuels and not particularly worried about the consequences. Pulling off the global energy transition in a timely and orderly way was already hard enough; doing it with active resistance from the US will be impossible. So the challenge ahead for Davos types is to use the levers available to them to make the case to Trump, directly, for why acting on climate is in his interest.

Semafor is on the ground in Davos this week with a lineup of world-class events, including one on the climate and energy implications of AI (more on that below). We’re also bringing back Semafor Davos, our pop-up newsletter to give you the big ideas, small talk, and behind-the-scenes happenings from the global village.

Trump plots a return to fossil expansionism

US President Donald Trump used his first day in office to issue a suite of executive orders aimed at boosting fossil fuel production and exports, and restricting the development of clean energy.

Trump issued an emergency declaration on energy that could unlock new powers for the administration to bypass bureaucratic obstacles in approving the construction of power plants and grid infrastructure. He re-opened Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas drilling, withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, and pulled back California’s authority to restrict sales of gas-engine cars. And he lifted the Biden administration’s freeze on LNG export permits, and replaced it with a freeze on offshore wind leasing.

For Trump, fossil fuel exports are central to the expansionist philosophy he laid out in his inaugural address; for countries in Asia and Europe, purchases of US oil and gas, especially LNG, will likely be a condition for favorable trade and political relations with the Trump administration. But Trump’s plans for higher production will likely be at odds with his promise to lower consumer energy prices.

What Biden saved

Sum of federal clean-energy grants from the Inflation Reduction Act that the Biden administration finalized before leaving office. That means about 84% of the total grant funding available under the law will be protected from withdrawal under Trump. The fate of what’s left will depend both on the new administration’s priorities — money could be directed toward projects more favorable to the fossil fuel industry, or held back indefinitely — and on the willingness of congressional Republicans to set their economic interest in chasing investments for their home districts above their ideological opposition to climate action.

EV assault hits gas

Electric vehicles were among the first clean technologies to face the chopping block on Trump’s first day.

Trump’s executive order on energy “eliminates the EV mandate,” revoking a 2021 order from Biden that set a target for EVs to account for half of US car sales by 2030. He also froze spending from a $5 billion fund for EV charging stations, and hinted that he would roll back Biden’s tailpipe emissions standards and work with Congress to scrap consumer EV tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act.

These moves could help to prop up domestic gasoline demand. And they could actually help Trump’s ally Elon Musk, who sees Tesla as benefitting less from the tax credits than his rivals in Detroit. But the rollback will likely raise tensions with Ford, GM, and other automakers, who have already invested heavily in their EV operations and don’t want to fall behind in an increasingly brutal competition with rivals in Europe and China.

Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence present a transformative opportunity to drive the global energy and climate transition. Join Ricardo Manuel Falú, AES Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer, and President of New Energy Technologies, along with Semafor’s Technology Editor, Reed Albergotti, as they explore how AI can enhance mitigation efforts, support adaptation strategies, and develop the infrastructure for a low-carbon future.

Jan. 22, 2025 | Davos, Switzerland | Request Invitation

Energy conflict resolution

A pair of former senior oil and mining executives are joining a new effort to mediate global natural resource disputes. Resource Resolutions is a startup founded by sustainability and risk consultant Daniel Litvin that aims to intercede between governments, companies, community groups, and other stakeholders in disputes over mining, fossil fuel drilling, water access, and other resources. Helping to finance and advise the effort are Chad Holliday, former chairman of Shell and Bank of America, and Mark Cutifani, former CEO of Anglo American.

Because of increasing demand for energy, the impacts of climate change, and the general deterioration of multilateralism, resource conflicts are only getting worse, Litvin told Semafor, with negotiations often derailed by mutual mistrust and short-term, zero-sum thinking. A better strategy, Litvin said, is to work toward win-win deals that maximize the economic and environmental benefits of a given project: “It’s about growing the pie, rather than fighting over the slices of a small pie.”

Curtains for GFANZ?

Major global finance alliances are increasingly in danger as European and Canadian banks and asset managers consider following major US lenders in withdrawing from the UN-backed Net Zero Banking Alliance, part of the Glasgow Finance Alliance for Net Zero network.

GFANZ has responded to the exodus by announcing plans to transition to a standalone, CEO-led body, widening participation to “any financial institution working to mobilize capital and lower the barriers to financing energy transition,” GFANZ said in a statement.

The restructuring is something of a double-edged sword, Nadia Ameli, a professor of climate finance at University College London told Semafor. GFANZ’s broader inclusivity could unlock much-needed private capital for developing nations, but weaker standards or diluted goals also risk undermining its credibility with development finance institutions that “often need robust accountability frameworks and measurable commitments to partner effectively.”

In the US, meanwhile, the Federal Reserve also pulled out of a climate group for central banks just before Trump took office.

New Energy

• Orsted’s share price plunged after the company announced a $1.7 billion impairment related to higher installation and financing costs at its Sunrise Wind project in the US.
• Tariffs under consideration by the Trump administration could be especially damaging to grid-scale battery installers in the US, who have few options other than China for sourcing.
• China hit its 2030 renewable energy installation target six years early.

Fossil Fuels

• BP cut 4,700 jobs, about 5% of its workforce, in an effort to slash costs and prop up its lagging share price.
• China remains the world’s top coal importer, and is widening its lead over number-two buyer India. Fresh data from 2024 shows that coal-fired power production in China still hasn’t peaked.

Finance

• A top watchdog for global financial markets warned that climate change impacts are poised to trigger a pullback in lending and “an abrupt, broad-based repricing” of climate-related risks.

Tech

• Climate tech VC has a severe gender imbalance, with less than 1% of funding for US climate startups in 2024 going to female founders.
• California’s first green steel mill will break ground next month.

EVs

• European automakers are facing an unsavory choice to either cut their EV prices or buy carbon credits from their Chinese competitors. UK automakers, meanwhile, seem to have sold enough EVs last year to avoid similar penalties.

Leah Ellis, CEO and co-founder of the low-carbon cement startup Sublime Systems.

The key Washington lobbying group for news organizations and publishers is gearing up for legal action against a major artificial intelligence company that it believes has been egregiously copying publisher content to power its large language model, Semafor’s Max Tani scooped.

Proponents of the move said that the current ambiguity of laws around copyright infringement by AI necessitates legal action by news publishers who feel that many LLMs have been trained on their work without any (or adequate) compensation.