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In today’s edition, we talked to Microsoft’s director of AI4Science as Silicon Valley teams up with ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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January 24, 2024
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Reed Albergotti
Reed Albergotti

Hi, and welcome back to Semafor Tech.

About a year ago, I invited the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence to write a guest column about a government initiative that would provide the compute power necessary for academics to leverage AI and study the newest, biggest models, such as GPT-4.

Today, the National Science Foundation announced that the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource will finally go live. It’s about time.

The field of artificial intelligence was pioneered by academic researchers who toiled in labs and got little recognition for their discoveries. It was only over the last decade or so that the compute resources of big technology companies grew so large and powerful that the world’s most cutting edge AI models came out of the private sector instead of academia.

Many of the best AI researchers jumped to Big Tech, becoming rock stars in the process. For a time, companies resembled academia, with AI researchers publishing papers so that their discoveries would be recognized by their peers.

With the advent of ChatGPT, which turned the science of AI into an all out arms race, the honeymoon period of Big Tech’s AI research is over. We’re seeing fewer research papers from technology companies, which now realize new AI discoveries may be the most valuable trade secrets they own.

That means it’s even more crucial for academia to have the ability to research this technology out in the open. And if the U.S. is going to retain its AI lead, its researchers need to have the latest tools.

But the NAIRR goes beyond just AI research. Increasingly, big breakthroughs in science will require massive compute power, as AI algorithms model the physical world to create new drugs and materials.

Even big technology companies recognize the importance of public compute, with companies like Microsoft and Nvidia contributing significant money and resources toward the project. (They no doubt get something in return. The feedback from the project will help them improve their own software and chip technology. And the government may eventually become a major customer as the NAIRR program expands.)

In the wake of the NAIRR announcement, I spoke with Christopher Bishop, director of Microsoft’s AI4Science initiative, about the ways AI is changing science. Read below for the Q&A.

Move Fast/Break Things
Richard A. Brooks/AFP via Getty Images

➚ MOVE FAST: Worker shortages. Countries facing demographic challenges are turning to AI to help address the lack of people to fill roles. Industrial robots could aid in the construction of Japan’s Osaka World Expo set for 2025, which is facing delays because of an inadequate supply of workers.

➘ BREAK THINGS: Worker surplus. German software firm SAP is the latest tech company to restructure jobs to focus on AI, offering buyouts or role changes for 8,000 employees. It also plans to invest more than $1 billion in AI startups. Meanwhile, Google recently announced layoffs as part of its push in the technology.

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Artificial Flavor

The AI explosion is creating a heavy burden on the world’s energy infrastructure. Global electricity demand from data centers could double by 2026, roughly the equivalent of Germany’s usage, according to a report out today by the International Energy Agency. In 2022, data centers, crypto, and AI made up almost 2% of global electricity consumption.

By 2026, about one-third of Ireland’s usage is expected to come from data centers, a big business there. In the U.S., such trends will put pressure on the infrastructure in Virginia, California, and Texas, where most data centers are located. It’s one reason why major tech companies focused on AI are also spending resources on energy innovation.

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Q&A

Christopher Bishop is the director of Microsoft Research AI4Science, which focuses on the intersection of machine learning and the natural sciences, such as using AI to speed up drug discovery.

Q: Did you pick certain disease targets?

A: Yes, COVID-19 and tuberculosis are the world’s two biggest killers in terms of infectious diseases. So they’re very obvious targets to go after. And then in partnership with [China’s Global Health Drug Discovery Institute], they helped define targets for us, meaning proteins that we can then try to build molecules that will dock with it. A real breakthrough here is the way in which we’re doing generative AI. We’ve had a partnership, for example, with Novartis for the last five years doing generative machine learning to design new drug molecules. That’s going extremely well.

What’s very interesting about this particular model is the way we brought together some real state of the art technology, and showed that it leads to this very significant acceleration compared to what we had even a year or 18 months ago.

The actual molecules that we’ve produced are very interesting. They are comparable to, or even superior to, the best known state of the art [ones]. They’re not themselves a final drug; they’re a lead to more optimization, testing, refinement. We’d love to see, eventually, some descendants of those molecules go into clinical practice.

By using this generative model, we’re able to design new molecules that are actually target aware. We’re not claiming that’s the final molecule that’s going to cure TB. But the fact we could do that so rapidly is the real excitement here.

We’re kind of on the beginning of this S-curve of research disruption in this space. I kind of wish I was 22 and doing a PhD again. The next decade is going to be phenomenal. And a year is a very long time in the field right now.

Q: And this is a small molecule, meaning it could be stored for long periods at room temperature and taken in pill form. In the case of your work on COVID, is that also a small molecule?

A: It’s the same story. The difference is the protein target. The starting molecules are different and the end molecules are different. But it’s the same architecture.

Q: The COVID vaccines that we’re all used to are not small molecules. They’re these mRNA vaccines. So why wasn’t it possible to have a small molecule drug treat COVID? And this technology would make that possible where it wasn’t before?

A: There are lots of factors there. Obviously, the power of the mRNA approach was incredibly impressive, so I’m not in any way belittling that. It’s an alternative approach to tackling COVID. We know that COVID is constantly mutating and changing, so it’s a different sort of vector. Whether this ultimately is how we tackle COVID long term remains to be seen. The thing we’re excited about is that we could take a disease that’s killing millions of people, and in a relatively short time, find a new state of the art molecule, compared to ones that were previously known.

Microsoft

Q: Do you see a world where you would basically design small molecule drugs for every iteration of COVID as it comes out?

A: We’re very interested in working on an adjacent project, which is trying to predict where these mutations are going to go. Because they have a sort of random element. There’s natural selection that picks some of them as the survivors, and they can escape drugs. It will always be an arms race.

But can we look one step ahead in the arms race, look one chess move ahead, and actually try to understand where it could mutate and anticipate that? The power of machine learning, deep learning techniques now to look across huge datasets of past mutations and understand the pattern of those mutations is really exciting.

Q: So why is Microsoft funding this?

A: What Microsoft brings to the table is, first of all, AI expertise. The other is Microsoft’s compute platform. And there’s an opportunity to partner with organizations like GHDDI, with drug companies, with materials companies, and together make these transformational advances. There should be good business in that. But it also should be good for the planet and good for other companies as well. Everybody wins in this sort of partnership.

Q: In other words, there are revenue opportunities.

A: The potential is so huge. There are opportunities both for societal impact and for commercial purposes for many organizations, including Microsoft.

Read here for the rest of the conversation, including whether AI advances mean you can now start a drug company in your dorm room.  →

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Flagship Asia Morning Edition

Meet Flagship Asia Morning, a new edition of our Flagship newsletter. Timed for the Asian morning and North American afternoon, the new edition’s mission remains the same — to keep readers informed without overwhelming them, ensuring they are aware of the world yet still able to go about their day — while offering a deeper look at the changes underway in the world’s most populous continent.

Sign up for the Semafor Flagship newsletter →

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Semafor Stat

The projected amount spent by companies on generative AI in 2023, which represents a fraction of the $400 billion they doled out on cloud software, according to a new report by Menlo Ventures. The authors described the figure as “surprisingly small” compared to the overall enterprise budget, reflecting the nascent nature of the generative AI market, despite all the buzz.

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Friends of Semafor

Thanks to our friends at Patent Drop, it’s never been easier to stay up to speed about the future of technology. Their twice-weekly newsletter scours the U.S. Patent and Trademark website to uncover the latest innovations from companies like Meta, Apple, and Nvidia. Sign up for Patent Drop here.

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Watchdogs
Zhang Peng/LightRocket via Getty Images

Proposed rules targeting video game incentives, like rewards, disappeared from a Chinese regulator’s website, Reuters reported yesterday. That boosted shares of Tencent, the world’s largest online gaming company, after the measures had wiped out billions in its market value when they were unveiled in December.

Since then, the National Press and Publication Administration has backed down a bit amid broader economic worries in China, where officials are trying to strike a more business-friendly tone, including toward foreign investors. The consultation period for the proposed measures, which include limiting spending on online games, ended on Monday.

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