Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ReutersRussia’s breakthrough in the ’60s Space Race did not signal the end of spending big dollars on space research. And DeepSeek’s success doesn’t mean spending billions of dollars on AI infrastructure, such as GPUs, is useless or will stop any time soon. The US DeepSeek freakout is, instead, our greatest mass hallucination since… well… the drone fantasy in New Jersey a few weeks earlier, similarly amplified by heavy-breathing media reports. Axios reported that DeepSeek represented an “extinction-level event for venture capital firms that went all-in on foundational model companies.” New York Times veteran tech reporter Mike Isaac wrote that the tech companies’ “biz model stands to be vaporized along with the value of their shares, and the billions of dollars already invested.” This hyperbole festered over the weekend, spreading on X and Reddit and a host of other social media platforms until it hit the stock market like a bomb on Monday, sending any public company making big bets on AI tumbling. Part of the issue was timing. The DeepSeek R1 release came on the heels of the blockbuster announcement by President Donald Trump that OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank were teaming up for a potential $500 billion AI infrastructure investment in Texas. But as the dust settles, the DeepSeek hysteria may reveal more about how little the market understands the AI industry. Since the launch of ChatGPT, AI researchers have been figuring out creative ways to distill capabilities of larger models down into smaller, more efficient versions. Meta and the French national champion Mistral have been among the best at this game, launching open-source models that have been popular in the AI research world and in some industries. Pressure from those providers has helped drive prices down quickly. Simply put: Massive gains in efficiency are a given. We don’t yet know enough about DeepSeek’s R1 model to say exactly how it will perform in real-world scenarios. But even the most rosy predictions don’t really change the landscape. That’s because appetite for AI is insatiable, especially in software development, where the biggest issue today is “token limits” that get in the way of complex projects. The other bottleneck is capability. We are simply nowhere near a point where AI is good enough for everyday use for average people. To get there, it will take many more breakthroughs and a lot more investment in infrastructure, like the $500 billion accelerated compute clusters in Texas. |