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In today’s edition, we dive into DeepSeek’s highly controversial breakthrough, and Pope Francis rele͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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January 29, 2025
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Reed Albergotti
Reed Albergotti

Hi, and welcome back to Semafor Tech.

As the DeepSeek saga continues, the market hysteria has turned into finger-pointing at the Chinese company. Critics accused it of essentially stealing OpenAI’s data through a process called “distillation.”

For those not familiar with this practice, it’s essentially using OpenAI’s large language model to create a form of synthetic data by prompting it. This is not new. We wrote more than a year ago about how Microsoft Research was able to generate pretty impressive results with a tiny model using this process.

That’s why DeepSeek’s alleged use of this technique, which violates OpenAI’s terms of service, isn’t surprising. If it didn’t use OpenAI, it likely used some other model, including open-source ones like Llama or versions made by Mistral.

It’s ultimately going to be very difficult to stop AI companies from freely distilling larger models, especially if they’re open source. And that’s where the more interesting debate — which hasn’t really started yet — comes in. Anyone can download and use DeepSeek’s open-source model on a home computer, or on a cloud service offered by Hugging Face or AWS. Using the models that way shouldn’t result in any information being sent to China.

I say “shouldn’t” because there’s a lot we don’t know about how these work and I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of some kind of yet-to-be-discovered security vulnerability. And now some are calling for the DeepSeek app to be banned from the Apple and Google app stores, after a similar push for TikTok. If the data TikTok gathers on American users was troublesome to lawmakers, they will go berserk when they realize what chatbots obtain. People actually fall in love and date these things.

As I wrote yesterday, the DeepSeek meltdown shows investors haven’t grasped how AI works either (more on that below). Later today, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla report earnings and I’d expect questions about DeepSeek to come up in their analyst calls. It’ll be interesting to see how stock prices change as the hype dies down and reality settles in.

Move Fast/Break Things

➚ MOVE FAST: Catch up. Alibaba touted the release of its Qwen 2.5 AI model, saying it outperforms DeepSeek’s blockbuster V3 release, OpenAI’s 4o, and Meta’s most advanced Llama platform. The announcement will likely further rattle Washington as it seeks to contain China’s tech prowess.

➘ BREAK THINGS: Worked up. OpenAI is probing whether DeepSeek improperly obtained its data to train its AI model, which Donald Trump’s AI czar David Sacks says amounted to “theft.” That intensifies the US-China tech cold war, with Sam Altman’s firm banning Chinese-based accounts suspected of distilling its models.

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Artificial Flavor
Pope Francis looks on, on the day he leads the Vespers prayer service to celebrate the conversion of St. Paul, at the Basilica of Saint Paul Outside the Walls, in Rome, Italy.
Yara Nardi/Reuters

Holy See. AI concerns have reached the highest levels of government systems, and the Vatican is no different. Pope Francis, the leader of the Catholic Church, on Tuesday released a 117-paragraph document detailing AI’s risks and rewards, and reflecting on how it fits into the Christian faith.

The Church regards intelligence as a key component of how humans are created “in the image of God,” according to the Bible, so even in its most advanced form, AI lacks the spiritual and moral dimensions of human thinking, the document says. Even as researchers tout the prospects of AGI, the technology cannot equal or surpass human intelligence because it “lacks the richness of corporeality, relationality, and the openness of the human heart to truth and goodness,” the Pope said.

The document also warns about the dangers of the technology, including its potential to advance instruments of war and further alienate disenfranchised communities.

Pope Francis previously called on developers to create the systems ethically. He spoke at an AI conference last year alongside leaders of other world religions, including Judaism, Islam, Buddhism, and Hinduism. Executives at Microsoft, IBM, and Cisco have signed the Church’s pledge on ethical AI development.

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The Real DeepSeek Revelation
An illustration showing the DeepSeek app.
Dado Ruvic/Illustration/Reuters

Russia’s breakthrough in the ’60s Space Race did not signal the end of spending big dollars on space research. And DeepSeek’s success doesn’t mean spending billions of dollars on AI infrastructure, such as GPUs, is useless or will stop any time soon.

The US DeepSeek freakout is, instead, our greatest mass hallucination since… well… the drone fantasy in New Jersey a few weeks earlier, similarly amplified by heavy-breathing media reports. Axios reported that DeepSeek represented an “extinction-level event for venture capital firms that went all-in on foundational model companies.” New York Times veteran tech reporter Mike Isaac wrote that the tech companies’ “biz model stands to be vaporized along with the value of their shares, and the billions of dollars already invested.”

This hyperbole festered over the weekend, spreading on X and Reddit and a host of other social media platforms until it hit the stock market like a bomb on Monday, sending any public company making big bets on AI tumbling.

Part of the issue was timing. The DeepSeek R1 release came on the heels of the blockbuster announcement by President Donald Trump that OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank were teaming up for a potential $500 billion AI infrastructure investment in Texas.

But as the dust settles, the DeepSeek hysteria may reveal more about how little the market understands the AI industry.

Since the launch of ChatGPT, AI researchers have been figuring out creative ways to distill capabilities of larger models down into smaller, more efficient versions. Meta and the French national champion Mistral have been among the best at this game, launching open-source models that have been popular in the AI research world and in some industries. Pressure from those providers has helped drive prices down quickly.

Simply put: Massive gains in efficiency are a given. We don’t yet know enough about DeepSeek’s R1 model to say exactly how it will perform in real-world scenarios. But even the most rosy predictions don’t really change the landscape.

That’s because appetite for AI is insatiable, especially in software development, where the biggest issue today is “token limits” that get in the way of complex projects. The other bottleneck is capability. We are simply nowhere near a point where AI is good enough for everyday use for average people.

To get there, it will take many more breakthroughs and a lot more investment in infrastructure, like the $500 billion accelerated compute clusters in Texas.

Read on for more of my thoughts on why the market doesn’t understand AI. →

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Plug

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Huawei’s Comeback
A chart showing Huawei’s history as it grappled with US sanctions.

Smartphone maker Huawei serves as a cautionary tale on limiting Chinese technology, as a similar debate reignites with DeepSeek’s advancements in cheap and efficient AI. Years of tightening US government restrictions targeted Huawei and its global supply chain — intended to impede China’s growing tech prowess. They limited the company’s customer base and tanked its sales, but Huawei has since thrived on diversifying its offerings and expanding its presence domestically.

In recent years, US tech companies have focused on semiconductor spending and building massive infrastructure projects on the promise it is necessary for AI development. Meanwhile, the sanctions may have had the unintended consequence of forcing Chinese companies to operate more efficiently without access to US chips and other components.

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Right Turn Ahead
US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One.
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

Google’s maps business has reportedly marked the US as a “sensitive country,” a classification applied to nations with strict governments and (in this case) border disputes, joining the list with Russia and China, according to CNBC. The reclassification follows an executive order from President Donald Trump that renames the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America,” and Alaska’s Mount Denali as “Mount McKinley.” In a surprising move to those who initially found Trump’s declaration negligible, Google said it would comply with the name changes when the government updates its official sources, in accordance with its “longstanding practice” of doing so. The US also joins Israel and Iraq, among others, on the sensitivity list.

Google’s move highlights Big Tech’s eagerness to play ball with the Trump administration during its early days. It follows the scaling back of DEI initiatives from Meta and Amazon, as well as Meta’s removal of third-party fact checking on Facebook and Instagram — after Trump’s repeated criticism that the platforms held anti-conservative bias.

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Semafor Spotlight
A great read from Semafor Business.Scott Bessent, Steve Mnuchin, and Janet Yellen
Kevin Lamarque, Andrew Kelly/Reuters. Graphic: Joey Pfeifer/Semafor

The Biden administration held far fewer meetings with corporate executives compared with the first Trump administration, a Semafor analysis found.

According to public calendars, former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin logged three times as many meetings and official conversations as his successor Janet Yellen in the first three years of their respective tenures, Rachyl Jones and Liz Hoffman reported. Such chilliness may help explain why many corporate leaders rallied to support Trump during the 2024 election.

For more on the Trump administration’s approach to corporate executives, subscribe to Semafor Business. →

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