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In this edition, we follow Ruben Gallego on the trail, whose Senate strategy resembles a certain lar͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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January 31, 2023
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David Weigel
David Weigel

In this edition, we ride along with Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego for the launch of his U.S. Senate campaign, catch up on Donald Trump’s first 2024 campaign trip, and watch a Republican family feud break out in Mississippi.

Today’s theme is confidence, and how we’re in the very early stage of the cycle where no theory or strategy has been proven wrong — yet. Can a progressive carry Arizona with just the right message? Can a judge running for a supreme court seat say the quiet part out loud and tell voters how she’ll rule on abortion cases? Do voters want to hear Republicans talk more about “gender ideology?” There’s plenty of time to experiment.

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David Weigel

Ruben Bleepin’ Gallego’s plan to win in Arizona

REUTERS/Leah Millis

THE NEWS

TUCSON, Ariz. — Rep. Ruben Gallego has a word for the political opponents he can’t stand — four letters, starting with “f,” ending with “k.”

He used it with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, after last year’s mass shooting in Uvalde. He used it with Kelli Ward, the former state GOP chairwoman, on Jan. 6, 2021, when he was ready to fight protesters who’d broken into the Capitol. He used it with Vladimir Putin after Russia invaded Ukraine. He used it with Geraldo Rivera.

“I think having very aggressive, open opinions is going to help you with independents,” Gallego told Semafor after the first rally of his U.S. Senate campaign, announcing his challenge to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat who left the party last month. “I think people are sick of politicians that hide their true feelings, or hide their values.”

Instead of facing her in a primary, in which she was “not going to be able to beat me,” Gallego launched his campaign as the prohibitive Democratic nominee. And instead of nominating someone with a carefully-wrought centrist image and reassuring tone, like Sinema or Sen. Mark Kelly, the party could elect a progressive Latino Marine veteran who fought in Iraq and tells the other side exactly what he thinks.

In interviews, including one with Semafor, Gallego has emphasized just how hard his early life was — sleeping on his family’s floor, escaping an abusive father — and cast his own politics as populism, unpopular only among the very rich and the people they pay.

“He talks like working class people,” said state Rep. Cesar Aguilar, who came to support Gallego at his second stop, in Phoenix.

DAVID’S VIEW

Gallego has had the “rising star” tag in the party for years, but it’s another Democrat who has given the party more confidence in his ability to win what could be an extremely difficult three-way election: John Fetterman.

In a difficult midterm environment, Fetterman mocked his GOP opponent relentlessly, pitched himself to blue collar voters as a rough-edged fighter against moneyed interests, and defied expectations that his endorsement of Bernie Sanders would let Republicans define him as a “socialist” and beat him. Just as importantly, he beat a younger, more conventional Democrat, then-Rep. Conor Lamb, who many in the party saw as a safer bet with a compelling biography of his own.

Fetterman’s strategy, which prevailed even after a stroke sidelined him and damaged his auditory processing, emboldened progressives who had struggled to prove their candidates could win elections. Rebecca Katz, a top Fetterman strategist, now works with Gallego. Both candidates have emphasized the most compelling parts of their biography — Fetterman as mayor of a left-for-dead city, Gallego as a veteran who still struggles with PTSD — to brand themselves before opponents could attack their records.

Ruben Gallego at a campaign rally in Tucson.
David Weigel

In Fetterman’s case, his Sanders endorsement and his Warren-esque take on the 1% gave him leeway to make key concessions to more conservative independents. He embraced fracking, for example, and spent little time getting into the details of controversial progressive priorities like Medicare For All. “I’m less fixated on what you call it, and more focused on the result,” his website said. He refused to back down from his support for sentencing reform, but also ran ads playing up his tough stance on crime as mayor.

Gallego has tried to run a similar playbook, including the occasional symbolic punch left — he’ll tell anyone who listens that progressives who use the phrase “Latinx” instead of “Latino” are insulting voters and need to cut it out. His first campaign video emphasized his faith in the “American dream” that allowed a poor son of immigrants to attend Harvard and distinguish themselves in the military, a contrast to sometimes more dour progressive takes on systemic oppression.

While the text of Medicare-for-all legislation that he’s co-sponsored would phase out private and union-negotiated health insurance, Gallego told Semafor it could stay: “I don’t care by what means, as long as we have 100% coverage.”

“It’s not about tacking one way or another,” Rep. Raul Grijalva, a former chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said introducing Gallego in Tucson. “It’s about being consistent.”

At his first in-person campaign stops, Gallego blended some progressive themes, like a Native land acknowledgement in Tucson from a local politician, with a populism that rhymed with Fetterman’s. Introduced by a Marine he’d served with in Iraq, the congressman’s speech – rated “G,” unlike the tweets – avoided progressive buzzwords or specific legislation. He hit Sinema for meeting with “billionaires in Davos” instead of frustrated constituents, and letting the child tax credit expire.

“The problem with Kyrsten Sinema isn’t that she left the Democratic Party,” Gallego said, ‘it’s that she abandoned Arizona altogether.”

His first rallies were held after the killing of Tyre Nichols, and he said policing was fixable, if only the filibuster hadn’t killed the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act, all of which he still supported.

“Qualified immunity has not always been in existence, when it comes to policing,” Gallego told Semafor. “Police officers know that when they do their job well, they’re not going to be targeted by any kind of harassment that will put their job in danger.”

While Fetterman’s success has helped ease concerns about Gallego’s viability among Democrats, so have Republican failures in the midterms.

Ruben Gallego at a campaign event in Tucson.
David Weigel

In a world where Republicans stomped to victory in Arizona and around the country last November, there might be a panic among Democrats urging the party to unite around Sinema.

Instead, Kelly won re-election over GOP venture capitalist Blake Masters, Gov. Katie Hobbs defeated former TV anchor Kari Lake, and Attorney Gen. Kris Mayes defeated former Army intelligence officer Abe Hamadeh — three arch-conservatives who alienated swing voters, two of whom are still suing to overturn their losses, all of whom Gallego mocked on Twitter. Democrats are hopeful a similar candidate might emerge, perhaps even one of the same names, and that they might end up losing more votes from a Sinema run than Gallego would.

Earlier last week, when she was in southern California for the Republican National Committee’s winter meeting, Lake told reporters earlier in the week that she was focused on overturning her 2022 loss — not a run for Senate. But on Sunday, at a “Save Arizona” rally, she couldn’t resist a few pokes at Gallego. She accused the Democrat of having “bangs,” which he doesn’t, and being a “self-admitted socialist,” which he isn’t.

“We call him the AOC of Arizona,” she told her crowd.

“We call Kari Lake the Kari Lake of Arizona,” Gallego tweeted. “And yes that is an insult.”

THE VIEW FROM REPUBLICANS

Republicans, watching to see if Sinema runs for re-election as an independent, will hit Gallego over his support for Medicare-for-all, blame him for “open borders,” and say that he endorsed defunding police by marching in a 2020 rally. They also question whether Fetterman’s formula, which was honed in Western Pennsylvania towns battered by industrial losses decades earlier, can translate to the Sun Belt’s booming sprawl.

“For a Democrat to win statewide office, they have to do well in the McCain corridor of north central Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Paradise Valley,” said Nathan Sproul, a Republican strategist in Phoenix who may work on the Senate race. “So far, what he’s saying doesn’t reach that demographic. Arizona has not elected a Fetterman.”

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The Map

Arizona. Both major parties picked new state leaders over the weekend, and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Isaac Arnsdorf at The Washington Post studied how pro-Trump Republicans stayed in charge of the state GOP. Democrats picked union organizer Yolanda Bejarano to lead them, passing over a candidate endorsed by new Gov. Katie Hobbs. The day after Kari Lake’s rally, new Secretary of State Adrian Fontes asked for an investigation into Lake’s tweets of voter signatures, questioning whether she violated state law.

New York. Rep. George Santos came back to work on Monday, after Politico’s Joe Anuta talked with the Long Island Republicans who control his fate, from the DA starting to investigate him to the local party officials who want him beaten in the next primary. Meanwhile, Gov. Kathy Hochul, who won re-election but tanked in the suburbs, faced a rebellion from county officials over her support for more affordable suburban housing.

South Carolina. Donald Trump held his first campaign event outside of Florida in Columbia’s statehouse, and Democrats still say they’re trying to give the state their first primary. At FiveThirtyEight, Alex Samuels studied how the presidential nominating process would really change if South Carolina jumped over New Hampshire.

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Ads
A still from an ad for Janet Protasiewicz in Wisconsin's supreme court race.
Facebook/Janet For Justice

Janet for Justice, “Common Sense.” Early voting in Wisconsin’s state supreme court primary starts next week, and Janet Protasiewicz, one of the two liberal candidates, is already on the air. “I believe in a woman’s freedom to make her own decision on abortion,” says Protasiewicz. As these annual court races become more expensive, and more partisan, every candidate is being direct about their outreach to partisan voters.

Vallas for Mayor, “Safe Streets.” A grammar scold would never approve Vallas’s slogan for Chicago voters: “Crime and your safety is his top priority.” But the police union-backed candidate can’t say enough about his public safety plans, or put out too many spots reminding people that he wants to hire more cops and make the “L” safer by having them patrol it. “We can’t turn Chicago around until we’re safe to walk our streets,” he says.

NRSC, “Maserati Manchin.” Robin Leach died five years ago, but his voice on “Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous” is immortal; it’s why a light British accent delivers the script for an ad meant to scare West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin out of seeking another term. The hit on Manchin for owning a luxury yacht named “Almost Heaven” comes from 2018, when he narrowly won re-election.

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Polls

The White House was happy enough about this poll result to flog it to reporters on Monday, as validation of how Biden’s team handled the classified documents story. A slim majority of all Americans say that the White House has responded to the story “well,” and a healthier majority, including 86% of Democrats and 61% of independents, approve of how it’s worked with investigators.

Trump’s numbers are much worse, with just 38% of independents saying the ex-president “tried to cooperate” with the investigation. The White House emphasized from the get-go that Biden handed back documents when asked, and Trump didn’t, and the difference makes sense to persuadable voters. Biden’s approval rating, at 45% here, hasn’t changed much since the probe began.

“Extremism” isn’t defined in this poll, which finds the president’s approval rating steady at 43% since December. A majority of independents consider extremism a “major problem” in both parties — 50% say that about Democrats and 53% say it about Republicans. The main reason for the gap in perceptions of “extremism” is that just 74% of Republicans see it as a major problem for Democrats, while 82% of Democrats see it as a major problem for Republicans.

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2023
Mississippi's state capitol building.

Flickr/Jim Bowen

The lawmaker responsible for one of the more notoriously vicious U.S. senate primaries of the past decade is picking another fight within the GOP.

Sen. Chris McDaniel launched his challenge to Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann on Monday, asking his fellow Republicans to “insist that our party be a party of warriors.” He’d use the office to deliver for conservatives, he said, “eliminating the woke culture in our schools and our universities” and replacing a Republican who didn’t deliver for their movement.

“He believes that he alone has the answers, and he punishes anyone who disagrees,” McDaniel said of Hosemann. “Do you want a Trump or DeSantis, or do you want a Mitt Romney or a Liz Cheney?”

Hosemann’s campaign called McDaniel “the least effective politician in the state with the largest ego,” reminiscing about his failed campaigns for U.S. Senate, when he challenged elderly Sen. Thad Cochran and then Sen. Cindy Hyde Smith, who replaced Cochran after his mid-term retirement.

McDaniel’s failed 2014 challenge to Cochran in particular was one of the ugliest primaries in recent memory and featured a prolonged legal battle over the results. Shortly after the election, a McDaniel supporter committed suicide after being investigated for allegedly conspiring to take photos of Cochran’s wife, who suffered from Alzheimer’s.

Filing for the major party primaries ends tomorrow, and no other statewide race was shaping up like this. Bill Waller Jr., a former judge who’d lost the 2019 race to Gov. Tate Reeves, and publicly contemplated a rematch, decided not to run.

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2024
REUTERS/Donald Trump

White House. Donald Trump had the campaign trail to himself on Saturday, with small (for him) rallies in South Carolina and New Hampshire that introduced his early primary-state endorsers. He followed that up, on Tuesday, with a campaign video about “left-wing gender insanity” and his plans to end the “mutilation” of children.

Among Trump’s promises: Revoke the Biden administration’s guidance on gender-affirming care, sign a new order “instructing every federal agency to cease all programs that promote the concept of sex and gender transition at any age,” and stop using “federal taxpayer dollars” for gender transition services.

Trump talked little about LGBT policies during his first campaign, and only occasionally mentioned the changes his administration made on the issue in 2020. His most notable headlines in 2016 came when he criticized a North Carolina “bathroom bill” and said Caitlyn Jenner would be welcome to use any restroom she wanted on Trump properties (she took him up on the offer). Jon Schweppe, the policy director at the social conservative American Principles Project, saw Trump’s Tuesday video as an embrace of “full-throated war against gender ideology.”

Trump didn’t stop by the RNC meeting in southern California, an event that, in other years, has attracted presidential candidates who want to meet their potential audience. Instead, Trump was represented by strategists Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles.

The one potential 2024 candidate on the ground was former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who was traveling to early primary states and moving closer to a decision. In an interview with Semafor, he distinguished himself from Trump on Ukraine, saying that President Biden had been “too slow” in delivering tanks when the country’s fighters needed them.

“With lead time and training, this is something that should have been addressed six months ago,” said Hutchinson. “We’ve let Russia define our rules of engagement to too large an extent. We don’t want to send our people in there, we don’t want to send our troops in there, but let’s give our full-throated support to the Ukrainian people as they defend their sovereignty.”

Asked about Trump’s post, opposing the tanks, Hutchinson said that the former president was wrong. “I disagree, and it’d be fun to have that debate.”

Senate. Former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels won’t run to replace Sen. Mike Braun, telling Politico’s Adam Wren that “it’s just not the job for me, not the town for me, and not the life I want to live.” That meant victory for the Club for Growth, which ran an ad this month attacking Daniels, and for Rep. Jim Banks, who jumped into the race first and criticized the idea of Daniels, who’ll turn 75 next year, serving a single term at the end of his career.

NRSC chair Steve Daines put out a statement after the news expressing his “utmost respect” for Daniels and calling Banks “one of our top recruits,” effectively elevating him over colleague Rep. Victoria Spartz, who is still considering a run.

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Next
  • 21 days until municipal primaries in Wisconsin and a special House election in Virginia
  • 28 days until Chicago’s mayoral election
  • 63 days until Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court election
  • 642 days until the 2024 presidential election
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