Africa

1. A new US-Africa approach
2. M23 targets Kinshasa
3. Africa’s media outlook
4. South Africa’s retail splurge
5. Weekend Reads

A four-month deep-sea expedition sets sail around Africa.

Changing US-Africa ties

US-Africa think tanks are bracing for a more transactional approach to the continent under the Trump White House.

“We’re in a very different world,” said Zainab Usman, the Africa program director at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, at the launch of a new briefing on the administration’s African policy priorities. “US developmental assistance is being fundamentally disrupted.” Development agencies in Washington and their African partners will need to show that trade agreements, for example, are “demonstrably beneficial” to both sides, she said. While this might create uncertainty in future discussions, officials have a “tremendous opportunity to completely reshape how we do business for this community,” said Ramsey Day, a nonresident scholar in the Carnegie Africa Program.

Meanwhile some Africa-focused Capitol Hill staffers, who asked not to be named, voiced worry that US President Donald Trump’s “America first” agenda would dominate his foreign policy approach, as African concerns get deprioritized. “We have to show what’s in it for the US,” said one.

— Yinka Adegoke

M23 rebels target Kinshasa

Lobbyists representing both Rwanda and DR Congo have stepped up activity on Capitol Hill in recent days after M23 rebels, backed by Kigali, took control of the key eastern Congo city of Goma. The fighters have now said they will push on to the capital city Kinshasa, further raising the prospect of a full-blown regional conflict in an area larger than Western Europe. The M23 militia is currently more than 900 miles (1,500 kilometers) from Kinshasa, but one of the group’s political leaders said the rebels aim to “take power and lead the country,” The Associated Press reported. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said further attacks on its peacekeeping forces stationed in the region would be considered a “declaration of war,” while Rwandan President Paul Kagame accused Pretoria of being a “belligerent force.”

Africa’s media outlook

Revenue growth in Africa’s major entertainment and media markets will surpass the expected global average over the next five years, driven by expansions in 4G internet access, according to a new report. Between 2023 and 2028, media businesses in Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa will report revenue growth above the predicted worldwide average of 3.9%, the PricewaterhouseCoopers study said.

South Africa, the continent’s most developed media market, will see its revenue grow from $16 billion in 2023 to nearly $20 billion by 2028, driven in large part by 8.5% growth in video streaming. In Nigeria, internet and advertising, video games and esports, as well as video streaming will push annual revenue up to $13.5 billion, while Kenya’s internet advertising market is projected to be the fastest growing in the world.

— Alexander Onukwue

South Africa’s retail surge

The annual increase in South African retail sales in November, beating the 5.5% rise predicted by analysts. The country’s retail sector “continued its recent strong performance,” Capital Economics wrote in a note to clients. The biggest contributors to the jump in sales included clothes retailers and outlets selling furniture and household appliances. The surge suggests shoppers have benefited from South Africa’s slowing inflation and comes as the central bank cut the main lending rate for a third time in a row on Thursday.

Weekend Reads

• South Africa can learn from Namibia’s progress in building a green hydrogen economy, two energy-focused researchers write in the Mail & Guardian. “The key takeaway is the need for agile, fit-for-purpose policies and proactive engagement with local communities to ensure broad-based support,” they say.

• The success of Ethiopia and Somalia’s agreement to deescalate tensions over the breakaway region of Somaliland hinges on resolving deeper regional challenges, a security expert writes for African Arguments. Eliab Taye points to Addis Ababa’s unresolved strategic interests in the Red Sea as a potential flashpoint with Eritrea. He also highlights that deal-broker Turkey’s growing presence in the Horn of Africa risks exacerbating Ankara’s economic rivalries with Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

• Tatu, a “start-up city” on the outskirts of the Kenyan capital Nairobi, offers a glimpse into the future of urbanization in Africa. With 26,400 people living, working, or studying there, it “may provide clues as to what makes a new city successful,” reported The Associated Press. Tatu is among a dozen new city projects — from Zambia to Zanzibar — that are trying to address the continent’s urbanization conundrum.

• Why is teenage fertility so high in sub-Saharan Africa and what does that mean for women? These are the questions Alice Evans unpacks in her latest essay in The Great Gender Divergence. The region is bucking the global trend of falling fertility rates, driven by economic stagnation and poor schooling. But “structural transformation, skills-based pathways of upward mobility, and internet connectivity could shift people’s aspirations,” Evans says.

Making it in media is one thing — turning it into a profitable career is another. Kara Swisher knows how to do both. This week on Mixed Signals, Ben and Max call up reporter, editor, founder, and one of the world’s most successful podcasters, Kara Swisher, to talk about the business of media in 2025. She talks candidly about breaking away from traditional media, her income, and even shares some unexpectedly kind words for Rupert Murdoch. Plus, an update on her bid for The Washington Post.

Business & Macro

🇬🇭 Ghana plans to launch a Gold Board in March to coordinate the market between buyers and small-scale gold miners, boost sales, and reduce smuggling, finance minister Cassiel Ato Forson said.

🌍 Telecom group Airtel Africa reported revenue of $3.6 billion for the nine months to Dec. 2024, attributing the near 6% decrease from the same period the previous year to the impact of currency devaluation.

Climate & Energy

🌍 PowerGen, a Kenyan renewable energy provider, received a $15 million investment from a group led by the International Fund for Developing Countries to deploy 120 megawatts of clean energy solutions in DR Congo, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone.

🇳🇦 The Kalahari Copper Project in Namibia, operated by Canada’s Trigon Metals, will be one of three beneficiaries of a €5 million ($5.2 million) European Union initiative for research into the exploration of critical minerals.

Geopolitics & Policy

🇹🇩 France handed over its last military base in Chad to the government, ending the European power’s long-standing military presence for counter-terrorism in the Sahel region.

🇹🇿 Tanzania seeks to resolve challenges with the African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights, the country’s constitution minister said, with a view to rejoining after withdrawing in 2019.

Tech & Deals

🇹🇿 🇧🇮 Tanzania and Burundi signed a $2.15 billion joint venture agreement for two Chinese firms to build a 175-mile railway for transporting nickel and other minerals to the Port of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania.

🇳🇬 Nigeria-born vehicle financing and fleet management company Moove acquired Brazilian mobility startup Kovi in an all-share deal.

A four-month expedition to explore the oceans surrounding Africa set sail this week. Researchers will study deep-sea ecosystems in areas such as the Madagascar Ridge in the southwest Indian Ocean and Agulhas Plateau, about 300 miles south of South Africa. The mission also plans to generate new datasets on biodiversity patterns, bacterioplankton, and aerosols. The trip — a collaboration between the nonprofit groups OceanX and OceanQuest — launched from Comoros and will take in several stops across the continent, including the port city of Mindelo on the Cape Verde archipelago and Walvis Bay in Namibia.

The billionaire CEO of a company racing to produce low-carbon power from natural gas remains bullish about energy groups’ chance to benefit from the AI revolution, Semafor’s Tim McDonnell reported in an exclusive interview. Following the debut of DeepSeek’s R1 model, which claims to be a less energy-intensive alternative to its industry peers, many energy groups suffered a share price plunge. Nonetheless, NET Power CEO Danny Rice believes the US grid is still underprepared for the knock-on effects of AI, and sees ample growth opportunities for providers.

If you’re enjoying the Semafor Africa newsletter and finding it useful, please share with your family and friends. We’d love to have them aboard too.

Let’s make sure this email doesn’t end up in your junk folder by adding africa@semafor.com to your contacts. In Gmail you should drag this newsletter over to your ‘Primary’ tab.

You can reply to this email and send us your news tips, gossip, and good vibes.

— Preeti Jha, Alexander Onukwue, Alexis Akwagyiram, and Yinka Adegoke.