Africa

1. S. Africa’s Trump riposte
2. Reforming US aid
3. Investors turn to Nigeria
4. Ethiopia’s quake evacuations
5. The Week Ahead

A film about the women rangers protecting rhinos from poachers.

Hello! I’m in Cape Town for Mining Indaba, the continent’s biggest mining conference. Government officials, business executives, and investors have descended on the city to thrash out deals and lay out their priorities.

China, the US, and Gulf states are all pursuing access to Africa’s natural resources. There’s a sense here that Donald Trump’s return to the White House looks set to change the way businesses and financiers operate in the region. Investors tell me they’re excited because his drive to develop digital infrastructure in the US will require key materials found in Africa, such as copper, while new opportunities for oil and gas exploration are also likely to open up. (Though read on for how South Africa is facing the risks to this optimistic outlook.)

The theme of this year’s conference is “future-proofing” African mining. This mostly means adding value through local processing, rather than exporting raw commodities. It’s a nod to the challenge of finding ways for Africans to benefit economically from their resources, unlike past generations, while remaining attractive to investors. Samaila Zubairu, president of the Africa Finance Corporation, put it like this at a panel event: “Africa’s minerals must serve our growth aspirations.”

🟡 I’ll be in Cape Town over the next few days chasing scoops and hopefully meeting some of you. If you’re around, reply to this email and let me know.

South Africa pushes back at Trump threat

South Africa should prevent the US from accessing its minerals if Washington withdraws funding to the nation over its land expropriation policies, its mining minister said.

US President Donald Trump, in a social media post, accused South Africa of “confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY.” Trump, whose key ally billionaire Elon Musk was raised in South Africa, added: “I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!” South Africa passed a law last month allowing land to be seized without compensation if deemed to be in the public interest, an attempt to resolve apartheid-era restitution issues.

“If [the US] don’t give us money, let’s not give them minerals,” Mineral Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe said at Mining Indaba. South Africa’s deepening ties with China and Russia under President Cyril Ramaphosa have raised concerns in some quarters about a potential backlash under Trump 2.0.

— Alexis Akwagyiram

Making US aid work for Africa

The decision by US President Donald Trump to abruptly halt foreign aid will have dire consequences for vulnerable populations in many countries in Africa, writes Gregory Rockson, founder of Ghana-based mPharma, in a Semafor column.

But Rockson sees this as an opportunity to revamp a system of perpetual aid by using even just a small share of American aid’s resources to invest in innovative partners to enable a more resilient system less vulnerable to abrupt policy reversals.

Investors seek stability in Nigerian debt

Global uncertainty around US President Donald Trump’s policy direction has increased international investor interest in Nigerian debt, a Goldman Sachs economist told Semafor.

Policy uncertainty following Trump’s election has affected US Treasury yields, equity prices, and the dollar, said Andrew Matheny, but Nigeria’s lack of integration with global financial markets has insulated it from volatility. If anything, he added, Nigeria has become a “very interesting investment destination” due to the lack of foreign participation in the market and the naira’s value being “more managed” than other countries. Matheny said there were “considerable inflows” into short-term Nigerian local currency debt — specifically treasury bills and open market operations bills — from mid-October to early November. And the trend has continued. “That’s probably where we’ve had more interest than anywhere else from clients in the last month or two,” he added.

— Alexis

Ethiopia quakes spur evacuations

The number of earthquakes recorded in Ethiopia’s Afar and Oromia regions since Dec. 21, with the strongest measuring a magnitude of 5.7, according to the UN. The increase in seismic activity has prompted the evacuation of around 75,000 people from both areas. Homes, schools, and roads have been damaged, the UN said, noting that the “situation remains unpredictable.” The quakes have also raised fears of volcanic eruptions due to their closeness to active volcanoes, The Conversation reported. Ethiopia is located in the geologically active East African Rift System. But it’s rare for earthquakes to directly trigger volcanic eruptions in the country, volcano researcher Amdemichael Tadesse told the outlet.

The Week Ahead

• Feb. 3: Judicial year of the African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights begins.
• Feb. 6: South Africa’s statistics agency publishes data on electricity generation and distribution in Dec. 2024.
• Feb. 6: South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa gives a State of the Nation address, the first since last year’s elections.
• Feb. 8-9: International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva visits Ethiopia.

Business & Macro

🇬🇭 British drinks maker Diageo will sell its majority stake in Guinness Ghana to French wine producer Castel for $81 million, a year after Diageo sold its Nigeria unit to Singaporean group Tolaram for $70 million.

🇬🇭 Ghana’s inflation rate slowed in January to 23.5%, the first dip in five months.

Climate & Energy

🇲🇷 🇲🇦 Mauritania and Morocco signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly implement projects that expand electricity access in rural areas and explore renewable energy opportunities in both countries.

Geopolitics & Policy

🇨🇩 The DR Congo asked three European football clubs to end their sponsorship deals with “Visit Rwanda,” accusing Kigali of being “directly responsible” for a humanitarian crisis in the eastern Congolese city of Goma.

🇿🇦 South Africa set a March deadline for Taiwan to relocate its de facto embassy outside of the capital Pretoria, the Taiwanese foreign ministry said, blaming “Chinese suppression” for the directive.

Tech & Deals

🇨🇮 British International Investment made a $15 million equity investment in Valency International to fund the company’s push to build a 45,000 metric tonne cashew-processing facility in Côte d’Ivoire and a new plant that produces biofuels from disposed cashew shells.

🇺🇬 Telecom groups MTN and Airtel are being investigated by the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa economic bloc for charging hidden foreign exchange fees for mobile money services.

An Oscar-nominated South African film highlights the role of women rangers in protecting rhinos from poachers. The Last Ranger, directed by Cindy Lee, secured a place in the Live Action Short Film category last month. Set in the Eastern Cape and inspired by true events, it exposes the challenges of rhino conservation through the story of a Xhosa girl and a female park ranger. South Africa, home to most of the world’s rhinos, recorded 499 rhino killings in 2023, up 10% from the previous year. Actress Avumile Qongqo, who plays the titular role, said the film was “intentional” in showcasing the women on the front lines of the fight against organized crime syndicates: “We salute them resoundingly with this film.”

US President Donald Trump is taking the Republican Congress on an economic wild ride, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott and Burgess Everett report.

Some GOP lawmakers are hoping they can still head off the tariffs, and a few complained about the conflicting guidance on government money, but most said they’re feeling little heat for the president’s moves.

Not only is there little evidence that party legislators mind his muscular executive power, there’s plenty of signs that Trump-state Republicans are happy to take the ride with him.

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— Alexis Akwagyiram, Preeti Jha, Alexander Onukwue, and Yinka Adegoke.