Principals

1. Ukraine aid puzzle
2. Democrats run against ‘chaos’
3. SCOTUS hears Trump case
4. Israel rejects ceasefire
5. Ukraine aid critic to Munich
6. Immigration boosts the economy

PDB: GOP lawmakers ask DOJ to investigate International Crisis Group

Special counsel report on Biden documents expected soon … Ukraine worries about U.S. aid drying up … NBC: Biden considering executive action on the border

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

Congress tries to find a path forward for Ukraine aid

Let’s just say that the path forward for Ukraine funding is still looking a little hazy. Senators are expected to vote today on whether to advance a foreign aid package including help for Kyiv, Israel, and Taiwan, minus the border deal Republicans deep-sixed earlier this week. But despite the support of Republican leaders, the effort is facing possible trouble. The reason? GOP lawmakers want a chance to add amendments on — wait for it — border security. “Our side’s not willing to give up the border fight,” Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas told reporters. The whole situation has reporters wondering if the Senate has entered an “endless doom loop.” If a bill can clear the Senate, there are still plenty of question marks in the House, as Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant, Kadia Goba, and Joseph Zeballos-Roig write. Speaker Mike Johnson is signaling privately and publicly that he’ll likely try to split the legislation into separate pieces. Meanwhile, some GOP members have reached out to Democrats about working together to get Ukraine aid over the finish line, according to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. “Everything fell apart yesterday and now we’re … trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again and we’ll see how that goes,” Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, told Semafor. Don’t trust anyone who pretends to know where all this will land.

Democrats look to make 2024 a referendum on GOP ‘chaos’

Joe Biden accused Donald Trump of fomenting “chaos” during his 2020 run and this week’s self-inflicted Republican stumbles are rapidly reviving that argument across the party, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott writes. A failed border deal and a failed impeachment vote, both of which ended with bitter internal recriminations for the GOP, sat alongside headlines about a MAGA-led effort to oust RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel and Trump’s latest legal setbacks. But while there’s plenty of punditry about the opportunity Republicans have handed Biden to go on offense, “Democrats are hopeful — but not entirely confident — he has the political chops to do so,” Politico notes. Over at NBC News, Chuck Todd points to Biden’s decision to skip a Super Bowl interview as the latest blown chance for the administration to seize control of a news cycle or two. “It is acting like a White House that fears Biden in any unfiltered settings, and everything it does feels a bit risk-averse and overcalculated right now,” he writes.

Trump’s 14th amendment challenge gets its day at the Supreme Court

Is Donald Trump an insurrectionist? That’s a question that the Supreme Court may or may not answer after it hears oral arguments in a case today in which Trump is challenging a Colorado Supreme Court decision to throw him off the 2024 ballot in the state. (The court ruled that he is ineligible for the presidency under the 14th amendment because he “engaged in insurrection.”) Similar efforts have been rejected in other states, and many legal experts predict the high court will reverse Colorado’s decision, according to the Associated Press. The court could rule narrowly while sidestepping the insurrection question. The Wall Street Journal editorial board is urging the justices to “help democracy with a unanimous ruling against Colorado.” The state’s ballots have already been printed with Trump’s name on them, CNN reports, but the Supreme Court ruling will determine whether votes cast for him are counted for him.

Netanyahu rejects Hamas’ ‘delusional’ ceasefire offer as talks continue

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a truce proposal from Hamas in biting terms on Wednesday, accusing the group of making “delusional demands.” Hamas offered to free all of its remaining Israeli hostages in return for a 135-day ceasefire that would have required the Israel Defense Forces to fully withdraw from Gaza and Israel to release more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, among other measures. As Semafor’s Jenna Moon explains, Netanyahu’s response wasn’t unexpected: Analysts believe Israel will attempt to soften some of the maximalist proposals included by Hamas as negotiations continue on. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who met with Netanyahu and other Israeli officials Wednesday, sounded characteristically optimistic. “Clearly there are things that Hamas sent back that are absolute nonstarters,” he said at a press conference. “We see, in what was sent back, space to pursue an agreement.” Meanwhile, Netanyahu said his country’s military offensive will continue into Rafah, the border city now crammed with refugees. Netanyahu had hinted at moving into the city, but on Wednesday made his clearest statement so far, The Jerusalem Post reported.

J.D. Vance is going to Munich to warn Europe on slipping U.S. support for Ukraine

Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio is among the U.S. lawmakers headed to the Munich Security Conference later this month and he plans to urge Europeans to step up support for Ukraine because support for more aid in the U.S. is drying up. “The message I am going to carry is that the Europeans need to step up,” he told Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant. “There is clearly not an appetite for more blank checks for Ukraine.” Vance, who has been rumored as a potential vice presidential pick for Donald Trump, is among the group of Republicans who have vocally opposed more aid to Ukraine. His views will likely stand out at the conference, but they represent a growing faction of his party that argues the U.S. should be spending less on foreign wars or focusing more on threats from China. The annual conference, slated for Feb. 16-18, is widely attended by U.S. and European lawmakers and officials and Russia’s war in Ukraine will be a dominant topic.

Rising immigration will add about to add $7 trillion to the economy, CBO says

Sure, Washington might be tying itself in knots over the border, but the recent surge of immigration to the U.S. is about to do wonders for the economy, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Capitol Hill’s official scorekeeper now thinks U.S. GDP should be $7 trillion higher over the next ten years compared to its last forecast, adding an extra $1 trillion in revenue to the government’s coffers. As a result, the deficit should be 7% lower than previously expected. The economic bump is mostly due to higher net migration, which should add an extra 5.2 million people to the workforce. The numbers come from the CBO’s latest Budget and Economic Outlook. The report does contain at least one piece of bad news: The annual deficit is expected to grow from $1.6 trillion this year to $2.4 trillion in 2034, mostly thanks to increases in net interest costs.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Speaker Mike Johnson is going to endorse the Rep. Matt Rosendale, R-Mont. in the U.S. Senate race in Montana, breaking with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and the National Republican Senatorial Committee who have backed GOP candidate Tim Sheehy. Rosendale is expected to soon make his campaign official.

Playbook: The common view among legal pundits analyzing what the Supreme Court might do on the case over Donald Trump’s eligibility for the Colorado ballot is that the conservative justices “hate this case and are enormously uncomfortable with having to decide such a politically fraught issue as whether or not the likely Republican nominee is eligible to hold office.” As a result, they’re likely to rule narrowly in favor of Trump.

Axios: Trump’s lawyers in today’s Supreme Court arguments have “pinned their hopes mainly on semantics,” arguing the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause doesn’t apply to the president, that Jan. 6 wasn’t an insurrection and that even if it was, Trump didn’t “engage” in it.

The Early 202: Asked whether any of the “no” votes on the border bill surprised him, Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said it was “shocking” to go from 20-25 potential GOP votes to just four. “I am still shaking, having watched the most bizarre, maddening phenomenon I’ve ever been a part of in politics,” he said.

White House

• President Biden will give a speech at the House Democrats’ retreat in Leesburg, Va. later today.
• Biden mixed up former German Chancellor Angela Merkel with Helmut Kohl (who died in 2017) while speaking at a fundraiser in New York, days after confusing French President Emmanuel Macron with François Mitterrand (who died in 1996).
• Senior Biden administration aides will meet with Muslim and Arab American community leaders in Michigan on Thursday to discuss policy issues, most notably the war in Gaza.
• On Friday, the White House will close out a week of events focused on combating gun violence in Black communities with a ceremony where Vice President Harris will honor the first graduates of the University of Chicago Crime Lab’s Community Violence Intervention Leadership Academy.
• The White House slammed Tucker Carlson on Wednesday for interviewing Russian President Vladimir Putin, with White House national security spokesman John Kirby saying: “I don’t think we need another interview with Vladimir Putin to understand his brutality.”
• The Biden administration is partnering with major sports leagues — including the NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA and WNBA — to promote healthy lifestyles and increase nutrition education and physical activity across the country.

Congress

• Three Republican lawmakers — Reps. Jim Banks, R-Ind., Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and Mike Waltz, R-Fla. — asked the Justice Department to open an investigation into the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-headquartered conflict resolution and advocacy group, to determine if it acted as an unregistered agent for the government of Iran, Semafor’s Jay Solomon reports.
• Senate Republicans blocked a package that coupled aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan with border security reforms. The Senate’s decision to spurn the broader package “virtually guarantees Congress won’t pass any broad immigration or border legislation before the November presidential election.” — Bloomberg
• Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., the lead Republican negotiator on the border bill, delivered a speech on the Senate floor in which he said a “popular commentator” threatened to “destroy” him for trying to reach a bipartisan compromise on border security.
• House Speaker Mike Johnson vowed Wednesday to pass the articles of impeachment for Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas next time, saying he and the Biden administration both need to be “held accountable.”
• One member of Congress clearly enjoyed Tracy Chapman and Luke Combs’ performance at the Grammys, albeit with his own interpretation.

Economy

• For the first time in 20 years, the U.S. imported more from Mexico than China.
• A new paper found Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports from China didn’t boost employment in the U.S. — but they did make Trump more popular in rural America.
• Chinese consumer prices fell at their fastest pace since 2009 last month, pointing to worsening deflation amid concerns over a deepening stock-market rout.

Courts

• Attorney General Merrick Garland told lawmakers that special counsel Robert Hur has finished his investigation into President Biden’s handling of classified documents and will soon release a report. — AP
• Ty Cobb, a former attorney in the Trump White House, predicted the Supreme Court will rule unanimously against the former president’s claims of presidential immunity for his alleged crimes on Jan. 6. — The Hill

Polls

A new poll from Marquette Law School found President Biden and Donald Trump deadlocked in the key swing state of Wisconsin, with Biden at 49% among likely voters and Trump at 50%.

On the Trail

• Marianne Williamson suspended her Democratic presidential campaign on Wednesday night, breaking the news to supporters by paraphrasing Gandhi. “First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. Then you don’t win :)…” she wrote in an email. Williamson entered the race nearly a year ago, as a progressive alternative to Biden, who she worried could not defeat Donald Trump. She never got traction, losing a series of top campaign staff and earning less than 4% of the vote in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada.
• After an embarrassing defeat in Nevada’s symbolic primary, Nikki Haley’s campaign said Wednesday she will stay in the race.
• Pro-Trump GOP consultant Alex Bruesewitz is weighing a primary challenge to Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis. after the congressman voted against impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. — Daily Beast
• Democrats are gearing up to counter third-party challengers that might spoil President Biden’s reelection bid. — WaPo

National Security

• Chinese hackers seeking to target U.S. critical infrastructure in some cases had access to computer networks in the U.S. for five years. — CNN
• A U.S. drone strike in Baghdad on Wednesday killed the leader of Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militia group that the Pentagon says directed attacks on American forces in the region.
• Russia launched several waves of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities on Wednesday, killing five people and wounding more than 30.

Foreign Policy

On Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated his claim that an Israeli victory in Gaza is “within reach,” also reiterating that he will consider nothing less of the eradication of Hamas a win.

Climate

The average global temperature was more than the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) level above the pre-industrial average for 12 consecutive months from February 2023, the European Union’s climate-monitoring service announced.

Technology

• Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo this morning is announcing the establishment of an artificial intelligence safety consortium composed of AI creators and users, academics, public and private researchers, and civil society groups. The long list of members includes Microsoft, OpenAI, Meta, and Google.
• State lawmakers are cracking down on teens’ social media use. New York just joined the effort, proposing a measure that would bar apps from serving content to teens and children via an algorithm without parental consent.

Media

The number of U.S. adults who say inaccuracy is the aspect they most dislike about getting their news from social media has increased from 31% to 40% in the past five years, new polling from the Pew Research Center shows.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla. said on X that former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy would be a “terrific” choice for the next RNC chair because he’s a “high-revenue fundraiser” and the head of the RNC “doesn’t make any policy decisions, set any agenda, or negotiate against Democrats, ever.” (Some of his House colleagues thought it was a joke or an elaborate troll.)

What the Right isn’t reading: Ohio backed down from proposed new restrictions on gender-affirming care for adults, after facing opposition from health care providers and transgender advocates.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Sydney Kamlager-Dove is a Democratic congresswoman from California. Kadia Goba asked her about the House Democrats’ retreat in Leesburg, Va. this week.

• The border bill’s collapse leaves some Republicans dazed and confused.
• Nigeria is chasing monetary stability with a firehose of new rules.
• Roofing billionaires in $50M talks for Graydon Carter’s glossy newsletter.