Principals

1. Bicameral competition
2. Trump’s latest tariff threat
3. Semafor interviews Bannon
4. South Africa eyes Musk
5. Kellogg readies Ukraine plan
6. Vance on world stage
7. Senate’s Cabinet clearing
8. DeepSeek risks

PDB: Declining support for transgender troops in military

China tariffs take effect … Trump tells Treasury to stop minting pennies … NYT: Court blocks US from sending Venezuelan migrants to Guantánamo

Senate GOP races the House on a budget

The House is playing catchup as Senate Republicans prepare to move a border-first budget resolution this week. Speaker Mike Johnson told Fox News Sunday that House Republicans are still committed to a budget that sets up one big border-and-tax bill, though it may take another week. “I talk with the president and his team about this almost constantly, reminding them that we will get the job done,” he said. GOP senators met with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago Friday to make their case, though Johnson also got a chance to pitch the president at the Super Bowl. Still, the House’s delay is leaving some Republicans in the lower chamber worried the Senate will eventually take the reins — leaving tax reform for later this year. Senate Republicans are also aiming to quickly boost defense spending, which is subject to a cut this spring under a continuing resolution.

— Kadia Goba and Burgess Everett

Trump readies more tariffs

Trump is readying the latest salvo in his tariff plans. He will impose 25% tariffs on all US imports of steel and aluminum later today, he told reporters aboard Air Force One, and later in the week will announce reciprocal tariffs on countries taxing US imports. “Very simple, they charge us, we charge them,” he said. The duties on metals will hit countries like Canada, the United Arab Emirates and Mexico, Bloomberg noted. Trump delayed plans to impose steeper levies on Canada and Mexico last week, but the new penalties will not be as easily averted, The Wall Street Journal reports, noting that Trump’s advisers have drawn distinctions between tariffs “aimed at nontrade outcomes” and those that are designed to respond to trade behavior by other countries. Shares of steelmakers in Asia declined on the news.

Steve Bannon on the media in Trump’s ‘Days of Thunder’

In his first few weeks in office, Trump has flooded the zone with executive orders, impromptu press conferences, and boundaries-testing moves to slash government — a strategy that Steve Bannon articulated during Trump’s first term. Bannon spoke to Semafor’s Ben Smith about why he thinks the strategy — which he’s calling Trump’s “Days of Thunder” — is working brilliantly this time around. “The media is a complete total meltdown,” he said. He cited the day of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s confirmation hearing as an example, when the HHS nominee was struggling to explain his past utterances. “Trump watches the first hour and he’s seeing it and they’re taking some incoming. So what does he do? He gives the press conference,” Bannon recalled. “He threw out something and everybody took the bait.” Major news programs, he added, “never went back to the hearings.”

South Africa might bend Black ownership rules for Musk

The South African government is considering ways for Elon Musk’s companies to invest in the country without complying with the nation’s Black empowerment laws, three people familiar with the matter told Semafor. Pretoria last year spoke to the billionaire about investing in his country of birth after Musk’s satellite internet service, Starlink, sought regulatory approval. Under the country’s Black economic empowerment policy, introduced nearly 30 years ago to reduce apartheid-era inequality, at least 30% of the South African operation of any Musk-owned company such as Tesla or SpaceX should be sold or donated to Black locals. Government officials have discussed allowing Musk’s companies to sidestep these rules by using an “equity equivalent” option, such as by investing in free internet connection to government schools, according to the people familiar.

Kellogg preps Ukraine options for Trump

Russia-Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg told US allies in recent meetings he is planning to spend several weeks preparing to present options for ending the war in Ukraine to Trump, three Western officials familiar with the talks told Semafor. Washington has been rife with speculation that the administration would present a plan imminently, although Kellogg denied reports he would do so at this week’s Munich Security Conference. In one meeting, Kellogg said he is aiming to meet and coordinate with officials from every NATO country, a Western official said. Meanwhile, Trump confirmed he has spoken with Russian leader Vladimir Putin about ending the war. Asked by the New York Post how many times he and Putin have talked, Trump replied, “I’d better not say.”

— Mathias Hammer

Vance encounters tests abroad

Vice President Vance’s portfolio in Washington is taking shape as he wades into high-stakes confirmation fights and business conversations — and he’s about to face two critical tests on the world stage. Vance is in Paris beginning today to represent the US at an artificial intelligence conference, and will visit Munich later this week for the annual security conference there. He’ll have the opportunity to sketch out the Trump administration’s vision on AI and foreign policy and to touch gloves with high-ranking foreign officials. Vance is no stranger to Munich — he popped up there last year, when he was still a senator, to encourage Europeans to step up defense spending. But it’ll be a much higher-profile chance for him to champion the administration’s America-first foreign policy approach alongside another rising figure in the Republican Party, Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Gabbard, RFK Jr. march toward confirmation

The Senate is halfway through its marathon 10-week session to kick off Republican rule in Washington — a slog designed to satisfy Trump’s eagerness to have his Cabinet in place. The Senate will vote to advance Tulsi Gabbard’s nomination to be director of national intelligence on Monday evening and to confirm her later in the week. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has also set up votes on Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for HHS, Howard Lutnick for Commerce, Brooke Rollins for Agriculture, and Kelly Loeffler for Small Business to follow Gabbard. All of that work could help clear the floor for later this month if Thune wants space for the GOP’s border and national security budget resolution, which would take several days to move (including a vote-a-rama). By the time March comes around, both chambers need to brace for long hours, given the looming March 14 funding deadline.

— Burgess Everett

DeepSeek’s hidden security risks foreshadow AI’s future

The hype around DeepSeek has morphed into a bigger debate over Chinese AI: Could models made in China make the US more vulnerable to cybersecurity attacks? When DeepSeek released its most advanced AI model, R1, it was hailed for its advanced capabilities relative to its size and its comparatively low cost to run. It’s also open source, making it available for anyone to use. But security experts have since probed the model and found it has fewer built-in protections against misuse. Palo Alto Networks said it found that R1 was susceptible to three techniques aimed at “jailbreaking” AI models, essentially rendering them defenseless against anyone trying to control them. Much of the concern has centered on DeepSeek’s mobile app, but what’s less known is whether the open-source model weights could pose risks even outside of it.

Debatable: Does Nippon Steel buying US Steel pose a risk to national security?

Trump recently opened the door to Nippon Steel investing in — but not buying — US Steel. Trump’s comments — made following a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba — revived debate over the proposed Nippon-US Steel deal, which Joe Biden blocked on national security grounds before leaving office and which Trump has also opposed. The issue has triggered a heated debate about US investment policy, national security, and friendshoring. Todd Tucker of the Roosevelt Institute argues that blocking the proposed merger is the right call because security risks are “less about imminent military threats, and more about the long-term maintenance of domestic capacities in strategic industries like steel.” Former Pennsylvania Rep. Charlie Dent, meanwhile, argued that there’s no good reason to block the takeover because Japan is such a close ally, and it would be a boon for the domestic steel industry.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: House GOP leaders want to cut federal spending by between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion to offset their big policy plans in reconciliation, which will probably mean they will look at deeper Medicaid cuts.

Playbook: Some Republicans are (quietly) criticizing President Trump’s effort to shut down USAID. One veteran GOP staffer conceded that gutting the agency puts US workers abroad “in dangerous situations.”

WaPo: Lawyers representing labor unions and the Trump administration will meet in federal court today to battle over Trump’s deferred resignation offer to federal employees. Rushab Sanghvi, the lawyer for the American Federation of Government Employees, said he would argue the program is “completely contrary to law.”

Axios: Trump’s FTC is adding more Big Tech skeptics.

White House

• President Trump became the first sitting president to attend the Super Bowl on Sunday.
• Trump used a “decoy plane” during last year’s campaign to avoid a threat from Iran on his life. — Axios
• CFPB employees were told to work from home after Trump budget chief Russ Vought took over as acting CFPB director and paused the agency’s activities. — CNBC
• Vice President Vance wrote on X on Sunday that “judges aren’t allowed to control the executive’s legitimate power,” likely a reference to the federal ruling on Saturday barring DOGE from accessing some Treasury Department systems.

Congress

• New Jersey Democratic Sens. Andy Kim and Cory Booker hinted they’d be willing to shut down the government over Republicans’ attempts to interfere with federal agencies.

Polls

• President Trump is seen as “tough,” “energetic,” “focused,” and “effective” by majorities of Americans in his first weeks of his second term, but two-thirds said he’s not focused enough on lowering prices, according to a new CBS/YouGov poll.
• A majority of US adults support allowing openly transgender individuals to serve in the military, but the number has been declining since 2019, according to new figures from Gallup. Meanwhile, close to eight in 10 support allowing women to serve in combat roles, including majorities across all political parties.

Outside the Beltway

• President Trump suggested he wants to push New York state officials to “kill” Manhattan’s congestion pricing scheme by threatening to withhold federal funding. — NY Post

Courts

• Elon Musk called for a federal judge who blocked DOGE from accessing Treasury Department systems to be impeached.

National Security

• President Trump said he is taking away former Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s security clearance, as well as those of other Democratic officials. — NY Post
• The Secret Service ran recruiting ads during the Super Bowl. — CNN

Foreign Policy

• White House national security adviser Mike Waltz said the US is “absolutely not” ceding ground to China and Russia by making cuts to USAID. — NBC
• Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was caught on a hot mic over the weekend warning that Trump’s threats to annex Canada are a “real thing,” possibly driven by Trump’s desire for Canadian mineral resources. President Trump doubled down on his annexation threats in a midflight press conference aboard Air Force One on Sunday.

Science

• The Trump administration is slashing billions in biomedical research funding at the National Institutes of Health.

Principals Team

Edited by Morgan Chalfant, deputy Washington editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Saikat Chakrabarti is a former aide to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY, who is challenging Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., for her seat in Congress.