Gulf

1. Saudi cements mediation role
2. Riyadh’s balancing act
3. Saudi FDI data questioned
4. Kingdom serious about EVs
5. Dubai property surges

Is it a train, is it a bus? Dubai calls it a Railbus.

Saudi praised over US-Russia talks

Talks between US and Russian officials in Riyadh signaled both countries’ willingness to work together on ending the Ukraine war and normalizing ties. Beneath headlines focused on the diplomatic machinations, however, was the emergence of the world’s biggest oil exporter as a mediator between two dominant global powers.

“Everybody was very appreciative of Saudi Arabia’s role,” the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, told Semafor columnist Hadley Gamble. The “Saudi side and [the] Crown Prince and his team created a very positive environment,” he said. The talks “couldn’t have been done without Saudi.”

Officials in Jordan, Qatar, the UAE, and other Arab states commended Saudi Arabia’s role in hosting the talks. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — who was scheduled to visit Riyadh and meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — canceled after being excluded. “We want to end the war more than anyone else,” Zelenskyy said. “We want it to be done in a just way and not behind our back.”

Analysis: Riyadh’s balancing act

While Riyadh’s role as power broker in global diplomacy may have been surprising a week ago, it’s the result of a decades-long foreign policy balancing act by the Saudi government, Faisal J. Abbas, the Editor-in-Chief of Arab News, writes in a Semafor column.

“The kingdom’s growing diplomatic clout isn’t an accident,” Abbas wrote. “Having built strong ties with Trump during his first term — and maintaining contact in the interregnum to his second — Riyadh is well positioned to be a facilitator for a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war, which would stabilize Europe and the world, as well as global energy and commodity markets.”

Questions over Saudi FDI data

One of the key indicators used by economists, analysts (and journalists) to assess Saudi Arabia’s success in attracting foreign direct investment is flawed, a new paper argues. The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington points to major discrepancies in the quarterly and annual FDI data compiled by two different Saudi government bodies. In 2023, for example, the Ministry of Investment’s annual FDI estimate was nearly double that of the General Authority for Statistics. The culprit: lagging data. Annual FDI figures are typically published in October, allowing for revisions, while quarterly data is more immediate but often incomplete.

For those tracking long-term trends, the annual figures may provide a more accurate picture. But for others making real-time decisions, waiting months for the full data is a luxury they can’t afford.

EV brand Ceer’s localization drive

Saudi Arabia’s electric vehicle maker Ceer is advancing the kingdom’s plan to establish a local car manufacturing ecosystem. The company recently signed deals worth 5.5 billion riyals ($1.5 billion), with more than 80% of contracts awarded to Saudi firms, bringing it closer to its 45% localization target. Backed by the Public Investment Fund, Ceer aims to contribute $8 billion to Saudi Arabia’s GDP by 2034 as it positions itself as a global EV player. The company is building a $1.3 billion plant in King Abdullah Economic City and working with South Korea’s Hyundai on EV drive systems.

Golden age for Dubai property

The Dubai property market is going in one direction: up. Emaar — which built Burj Khalifa, the world’s tallest tower, in Dubai — posted a record profit of 7.6 billion dirhams ($2 billion) and had 70 billion dirhams in sales, while its shares more than doubled last year. Other developers in the city are moving fast to capitalize on the momentum. Deyaar is launching five new projects worth 8 billion dirhams this year. Dubai ranked as the world’s third-best performing property market in 2024, with prices rising 16.9%, according to real estate consultancy Knight Frank. Prices are expected to keep climbing in 2025 as supply remains tight and wealthy investors continue to flock to the city.

Diplomacy

• US President Donald Trump is scheduled to speak at the Future Investment Initiative Summit in Miami on Wednesday. Saudi officials, including Public Investment Fund Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan, along with US hedge fund investors, bankers, and CEOs, are expected to attend.
• The UAE and Ukraine signed a trade and investment agreement. The deal aims to enhance market access and economic cooperation — contributing about $369 million to the UAE’s GDP and $874 million to the Ukrainian economy by 2031.
• Qatar committed to investing $10 billion in India across various sectors, the two nations said as Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani visited New Delhi. The two states aim to double annual trade to $28 billion by 2030.

Technology

• Presight, an Abu Dhabi-based data analytics and AI company, won a $190 million contract from Kazakhstan’s capital Astana to transform it into an “smart city.” The project will use connected sensors and other devices to digitalize infrastructure, enhance traffic management, and improve public services.

Regulations

• Abu Dhabi is easing expansion rules for UAE-based companies. Businesses can now open branches in the capital without leasing physical space for the first year.

Dubai’s next public transport upgrade might not need to choose between tracks or roads — it’ll do both. The city is studying a Railbus system, a hybrid mode of transport that blends the speed of rail with the flexibility of road travel. Already in use in parts of Asia and Europe, these “dual-mode” vehicles can switch between dedicated tracks and normal highways, offering a cost-effective alternative to metro expansion. For city planners, it’s a faster and cheaper solution. For commuters, it’s another way to dodge traffic jams. The Railbus will connect with the Dubai Metro and Tram, but passengers will have to wait to hop on — a launch date hasn’t been set. Feasibility studies alone could take up to two years.

There’s no question that Elon Musk is the public face of the Department of Government Efficiency. But DOGE, born out of what was once the US Digital Service, may not have an official administrator, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott and Burgess Everett write.

That distinction will be key, as Democratic lawsuits attempting to block DOGE’s actions as out of bounds work through the courts. Musk has been identified as a White House “special government employee” but not an employee of DOGE; press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Musk is not the DOGE chief, but declined to say who is.