Net Zero

1. Trump’s dangerous game
2. Cleaner GDP
3. SNAFU at FERC
4. Beachfront passports
5. BlackRock backs off

Is hydrogen overhyped?

Trump is playing a dangerous game

US President Donald Trump’s potential rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine could deliver a major victory for Russia’s oil and gas companies — at the expense of their American competitors.

When Secretary of State Marco Rubio met senior Russian officials in Saudi Arabia this week to discuss the terms of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine, energy was a main course on the menu. The Kremlin is keen to see the US lift sanctions on its oil and gas exports, and the countries agreed to work toward “historic economic and investment opportunities,” possibly including the return of Western oil majors to Russia.

Isolating and damaging Moscow’s energy sector has up to now been a core strategy of Ukraine and its Western allies in economically countering the invasion. While Rubio suggested to European leaders that sanctions would be lifted only after an end to the war, Trump seems to turn more aggressively against Ukraine by the day. But to suddenly normalize energy relations with Russia would be a huge gamble that could easily backfire, both for Trump’s desire to be known as a peacemaker and for the US energy sector.

Cleaner GDP

Clean energy contributed a record 10.2% of China’s GDP last year, primarily driven by growth in economic output from electric vehicles, batteries, and solar power, according to a Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air analysis for Carbon Brief.

Investment in the sector in China alone reached $940 billion, close to the global total put into fossil fuels, even as clean energy’s annual growth rate markedly cooled — as expected — from an extraordinary 40% expansion in 2023. Despite supply gluts weakening revenue, the nominal value of investments in the solar industry held steady as the volume of projects increased.

Other countries are starting to bet big on clean technology breakthroughs in a bid to disrupt China’s dominance of renewables: The Japanese government, for example, is providing up to $1 billion in subsidies to a company at the forefront of efforts to develop next-generation solar panels that don’t depend on Chinese-supplied materials.

Cutting-edge innovations in carbon capture technology, green hydrogen production, and next-gen aircraft are revolutionizing the energy landscape. As these technologies advance, what are the biggest hurdles making them commercially viable? Hosted on the sidelines of CERAWeek in Houston, Semafor’s Climate & Energy Editor Tim McDonnell will lead news-making conversations with industry leaders including John Ketchum, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy, Inc., and more, on the latest breakthroughs, challenges, and policy shifts.

Mar. 10, 2025 | Houston, TX | RSVP

SNAFU at FERC

US President Donald Trump’s latest executive order could snarl plans to build out the electric grid. Trump asserted control of several independent agencies on Wednesday, including the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which oversees interstate grid planning. New regulations issued by FERC will now need sign-off from the White House, according to the order: More than a dozen FERC regulations are in the works that are mostly aimed at expanding and strengthening the grid. The order is certain to face legal challenges, which would slow FERC’s work. In the meantime, the president is streamlining the construction of hundreds of new fossil fuel projects by granting US Army Corps of Engineers special “emergency” powers to speed them around the normal environmental review process.

Beachfront passports for sale

Minimum price for citizenship on the Pacific island of Nauru, as the country scrambles for new financial defenses to climate change. Its leaders hope to raise $65 million through sales of passports to foreigners, to help pay for the restoration of former phosphate mines in the island’s interior to which much of the population will be forced to move because of sea level rise. It follows Dominica, which is also selling citizenship to pay for climate adaptation as funds from the US and other traditional donors dry up. Nauru’s plan has some critics, though: Previous passport sales there have been tapped by al-Qaida and other extremist groups.

BlackRock backs off

The world’s biggest asset managers are stepping away from conversations with companies about their climate strategies. BlackRock called off scheduled engagement meetings with companies after the Securities and Exchange Commission last week walked back guidance that had allowed big index-fund investors to privately press companies on “social and public interest issues” without running afoul of the rules, people familiar with the matter told Semafor.

It’s a technical change with wide-ranging repercussions that could hasten big investors’ retreat from pushing progressive corporate policies on climate, DEI, and other issues. BlackRock declined to comment. It’s also the latest sign that the conventional hall monitors are now on the back foot — and that the federal government is moving more into alignment with the Republican-led states that have so far led the ESG backlash. BlackRock pulled out of the Net Zero Asset Managers alliance in January.

New Energy

• European officials want to make it easier for individual European countries to subsidize clean energy businesses.
• The world’s top producer of low-carbon fuels is slashing its spending and workforce following a year in which its share price plunged 60%.
• Startup developers of small nuclear reactors have raised at least $1.5 billion in the last year.

Fossil Fuels

• The latest Big Oil M&A is here: Diamondback Energy will pay $4 billion to buy some business units of Permian producer Double Eagle.

Finance

• A group of BP shareholders is preparing for a showdown with activist hedge fund Elliott Investment Management over plans to reverse the oil company’s energy transition strategy.
• HSBC watered down its net zero goals, pushing its deadline to reach net zero in its own operations — a much easier challenge than decarbonizing its lending portfolio — out from 2030 to 2050.

Politics & Policy

• The dismantling of USAID means the halting of several programs aimed at mitigating climate-linked extremism and migration.

Minerals & Mining

• Rio Tinto’s annual profit jumped in 2024 as it sold off some assets, but it was hurt by weak iron prices.

EVs

• Nikola filed for bankruptcy protection.
• GM thinks it can still steal EV market share from Tesla even if Trump axes tax credits.
• Embattled battery maker Northvolt will sell its industrial battery division to truckmaker Scania.

Personnel

• Denise Cheung, a top federal prosecutor in DC, resigned after being ordered to help recover EPA funding for clean energy programs.
• NASA and the National Science Foundation experienced sweeping layoffs, raising concerns about America’s ability to maintain its leading work on basic science.

Magnolia Tovar, director of technologies and impact, Future Cleantech Architects. Her new report details how companies and governments can make hydrogen a more credible part of the energy transition.

Lori Chavez-DeRemer is going to need help from Rand Paul, Democrats, or both if she wants to become Donald Trump’s labor secretary, reports Semafor’s Burgess Everett.

Paul has called for Chavez-DeRemer to publicly renounce her past support for the pro-Union PRO Act, while Democrats, in response to Trump’s aggressive first weeks, are increasingly holding a harder line against any and all parts of his agenda: “I’m not supporting nominees as long as the lawlessness continues,” Sen. Andy Kim, told Semafor.