Principals

1. Biden readies Russia sanctions
2. Haley’s air cover
3. Smirnov tied to Russia
4. Dems attack Discover takeover
5. Hasan joins The Guardian
6. New directive on Chinese-made cranes
7. The House’s AI push

PDB: Rubio’s friendship with Argentina’s Milei

President Biden continues California fundraising swing … James Biden speaks to congressional investigators … WaPo: Trump looking at ‘militarized mass deportations, detention camps’

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

What forthcoming Russia sanctions might look like

The White House is promising to unveil a “major” sanctions package targeting Russia following the death of Alexei Navalny on Friday. National security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters that the measures, which will also coincide with the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, would target Russia’s defense industrial base and revenue sources that support the military. The U.S. has already imposed a range of sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine war, but Evelyn Farkas, executive director of McCain Institute and former senior Pentagon official under President Obama, told Semafor that the Biden administration could go after Russia’s access to dual-use goods “like washing machines and things that they’ve been using to take the chips out of [and] feed into their military industrial complex.” The U.S. and Europe could also pull back their purchases of Russian nuclear fuel, which have continued to be a source of revenue for the Russian economy despite the war, Farkas said. The European Union is also preparing a sanctions package that will be announced as soon as this week.

— Morgan Chalfant

Pro-Haley super PAC hits Trump on Kamala Harris donations

As Nikki Haley pledges to stay in the race no matter what happens in South Carolina, her allied super PAC is giving her new cover against Trump’s attacks. “Donald Trump’s latest attack: A big fat lie,” says a voiceover in the latest ad from SFA Fund, shown first to Semafor’s Shelby Talcott. “The truth? Donald Trump donated to Kamala Harris when Nikki Haley was passing America’s toughest immigration law.” The Trump campaign has hit Haley in recent days for past comments opposing his Muslim ban in the 2016 cycle and pushing back on harsher rhetoric against undocumented immigrants, specifically labeling them “criminals.” As referenced in the latest ad, she has responded by pointing to her record in South Carolina, which included an immigration crackdown that the Obama administration sued to block.

Indicted Biden informant had ‘extensive’ contacts with Russian intelligence

Wild new details continue to emerge about Alexander Smirnov, the ex-FBI informant who was indicted last week for concocting bribery allegations against Joe and Hunter Biden. Prosecutors said in a court filing Tuesday that Smirnov was feeding bunk stories about the president’s son to U.S. investigators as recently as late last year, after picking them up directly from high-level Russian officials with whom he had “extensive” contacts. “Smirnov’s efforts to spread misinformation about a candidate of one of the two major parties in the United States continues,” wrote special counsel David Weiss. “He is actively peddling new lies that could impact U.S. elections after meeting with Russian intelligence.” Those revelations didn’t convince U.S. Magistrate Judge Daniel J. Albregts to detain Smirnov before trial (he’s being released with a GPS monitor). But they are another major blow to the Republican impeachment investigation into the president, which was fueled in part by Smirnov’s now-debunked claims that Biden and his son each received $5 million kickbacks from the Ukrainian natural gas company Burisma. The accusations also raise new concerns about how Moscow may be trying to tip the scales come November.

The Capital One-Discover merger is already under fire

Influential progressives on Capitol Hill are already taking shots at the proposed $35 billion merger between Capital One and Discover Financial, signaling a potentially tough road ahead for the deal in Washington. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. urged regulators to block the tie-up on Tuesday, writing on X that it “threatens our financial stability, reduces competition, and would increase fees and credit costs for American families.” Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, promised that his panel “will be monitoring all developments to ensure that this merger doesn’t enrich shareholders and executives at the expense of consumers and small businesses.” The credit card giants are attempting to marry at a moment when antitrust sentiment is running high in general, and just last week, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau happened to release a study showing that bigger card issuers offer consumers worse terms (as Semafor’s Liz Hoffman wrote Tuesday, the report makes an “almost comically frosty backdrop for this takeover.”) Pushback might not just come from Democrats, either: We’re already hearing chatter that some Trump-aligned conservatives may also look to take a populist stand against the deal.

— Joseph Zeballos-Roig

Mehdi Hasan joins The Guardian

The progressive pundit Mehdi Hasan is joining The Guardian following his abrupt departure from MSNBC, the British news organization confirmed to Semafor’s Max Tani. Hasan will be a regular columnist, publishing his first column on Wednesday calling for President Joe Biden to pressure the Israeli government to “end this genocide” of Palestinians in Gaza. Hasan’s programs did not draw a large audience on MSNBC during his time at the network. But his fiery monologues and probing interviews helped him garner a following on the left, and he’ll be an influential voice as Biden tries to rally the Democratic base.

Biden cracks down on port cyber threats, with an eye on China

The Biden administration is imposing new cybersecurity rules at U.S. ports that are driven in part by concerns about Chinese hacking targeting critical infrastructure, Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant writes. President Biden will sign a new executive order giving the Department of Homeland Security more power to address cybersecurity threats at U.S. ports, which will require vessels and maritime facilities to report cyberattacks, senior administration officials said. The Coast Guard is also proposing new cybersecurity requirements for port operators, as well as a new, secret directive specific to operators of Chinese-manufactured cranes. “By design, these cranes may be controlled, serviced, and programmed from remote locations,” one official said, making them potentially “vulnerable to exploitation.” Chinese crane manufacturer ZPMC controls roughly 70% of the global market for cranes and an estimated 80% of ship-to-shore cranes at U.S. ports. While the administration isn’t looking to “rip and replace” the Chinese-made cranes now, another official said, the administration plans to spend $20 billion in infrastructure funds to purchase new, “trusted” cranes.

Can Congress pass anything on AI?

Congress is slowly creaking towards a plan for AI. House Speaker Mike Johnson and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries finally announced a new 24-member AI task force on Monday, a project that had been a top priority for Kevin McCarthy before his ouster as speaker. Landon Klein, director of U.S. policy at the Future of Life Institute, told Semafor the move was a “very positive step” for advocates of regulation, but that the group’s mandate to produce a report before diving into legislation also “seems to indicate sort of a longer timeline.” The much-delayed House effort joins similar bipartisan efforts in the Senate, where leaders have held a series of forums on AI issues featuring big names like X’s Elon Musk and Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg. Craig Albright, VP of government relations at BSA / The Software Alliance, told Semafor he hoped the new House group might lend momentum to “legislation that’s ripe and ready to go this year,” like requiring agencies to use the Biden administration’s AI framework for federal procurement. One potential path to watch: A push to revive the American Data Privacy and Protection Act that the House Energy and Commerce Committee almost unanimously approved in 2022, and update it to incorporate more recent AI concerns.

— Kadia Goba

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Rep. French Hill, R-Ark., a Ukraine aid supporter, and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, a Ukraine aid skeptic, got into a “heated back-and-forth” over a possible Ukraine aid package during the Elected Leadership Committee retreat in Miami.

Playbook: Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn. is almost out of money in his longshot challenge against President Biden.

The Early 202: Nikki Haley is pushing on in South Carolina, despite tough odds for her campaign: Most presidential candidates either win their home state or drop out before their home states’ primaries, and the ones who continue on after losing their home states tend to be longshot candidates.

Axios: House Republicans “have stopped laughing off the idea” that Speaker Mike Johnson could face the same fate as his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, if he looks to Democratic votes to pass a bill to avoid a government shutdown.

White House

• President Biden will deliver a speech in Culver City, Calif. today before heading to two fundraisers in San Francisco.
• The president attended a fundraiser in Los Angeles last night and criticized Donald Trump for not blaming Russian President Vladimir Putin for the death of Alexei Navalny. “Trump fails to even condemn him. It’s outrageous,” he told the crowd. The co-hosts of the event, Haim Saban and Casey Wasserman, weren’t able to attend because they tested positive for COVID-19 beforehand, according to Deadline.
• The Biden administration is forgiving $1.2 billion in loans for over 150,000 borrowers through the administration’s SAVE plan, officials announced.
• Meanwhile, Biden’s effort to overhaul the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) is running into a lot of trouble due to repeated processing delays and website problems that harken back to the glitchy HealthCare.gov days. — Politico
• Biden attorney Bob Bauer criticized media coverage of special counsel Robert Hur’s report in a column published on Lawfare.

Congress

• House Republicans think there will be a government shutdown come March. — Axios
• Speaker Mike Johnson criticized the Biden administration for proposing a draft U.N. resolution that called for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, accusing President Biden of “responding to political pressure from opponents of Israel.”
• Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J. is passing around a resolution that would require Democrat or Republican leadership to sanction a vote to remove the House speaker, in an effort to protect Johnson should he face a conservative effort to oust him. — Axios
• House committees are expected to interview James Biden, the president’s brother, today as part of the GOP impeachment inquiry.
• Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, sent a letter to an attorney for Tony Bobulinski, Hunter Biden’s former business associate, sharply criticizing his closed-door testimony before the panel last week. “Your client’s interview was chaotic to the point of burlesque as he repeatedly yelled, shouted, filibustered, and hurled outlandish and baseless accusations and insults against Democratic Members and staff,” Raskin wrote.
• Russia added Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. to a list of so-called “extremists and terrorists” after he called for Russia to be designated as a state sponsor of terrorism over opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s death.
• Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., met with Argentine President Javier Milei on Tuesday, complimenting his “bold plan” to revitalize Argentina’s ailing economy and writing on X that “We should help him succeed!” The Florida Republican — who exercised major sway over the Trump administration’s Latin America policy — also met with other Argentine government officials, including Economy Minister Luis Caputo. Milei is set to take the stage at CPAC in Washington, D.C. on Saturday, only a day after a scheduled meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Buenos Aires.

• Rep. Bob Good, R-Va., who supported Ron DeSantis in the GOP presidential primary before eventually pivoting to Donald Trump, was kicked out of a pro-Trump event by a former Republican county chair who said, “Bob is not a Trump supporter” in a statement to Breitbart. Good faces a primary challenger who has the support of Trump’s close ally Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga.

Economy

Economists have a warning: Don’t read too much into the latest high-profile economic reports, which show inflation running hotter than expected and job growth exploding. They’re often updated with more precise measurements later on.

Courts

• Hunter Biden’s attorneys mounted a “wide-ranging legal assault” against the charges that he faces in California and Delaware, arguing that David Weiss was driven by politics and illegally appointed as special counsel. — Politico
• The Supreme Court on Tuesday declined to hear the case of whether a prestigious Northern Virginia magnet school discriminated against Asian American applicants in an admissions policy that was meant to encourage diversity at the school without overtly considering race.
• The Fulton County case against Donald Trump may be “fatally compromised” by revelations about the relationship between District Attorney Fani Willis and one of her prosecutors, Nathan Wade, Georgia attorney Andrew Fleischman writes. — The Hill
• Two men were charged with murder following a deadly shooting at the Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl celebration last week.
• Physicians in Alabama are grappling with how to proceed after the state Supreme Court on Friday ruled that frozen embryos are people. — WaPo

Polls

Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif. remains in the lead in California’s jungle primary for Senate with 28% support, according to a new poll from Emerson College. Republican Steve Garvey, who Schiff has elevated in his ads in the hopes of avoiding a two-person runoff with fellow Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, comes in second at 22%. Porter sits at 16%.

On the Trail

• “It is a form of Navalny,” Donald Trump said when asked by Fox News Channel host Laura Ingraham about the $355 million civil ruling against his business.
• Trump endorsed California Assemblymember Vince Fong, a protege of Kevin McCarthy, to succeed the former Speaker in Congress. McCarthy has also endorsed Fong for the seat.
• Republican businessman Eric Hovde officially entered the Senate race in Wisconsin, hoping to topple incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis.
• Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis popped up in South Carolina unexpectedly… to promote term limits.
• Former CNN Anchor John Avlon filed to run for Congress in New York.

Foreign Policy

• The U.S. vetoed a U.N. resolution that called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, after proposing its own draft resolution endorsing a temporary ceasefire.
• The United Kingdom’s Labour Party, which is expected to win the next general election, shifted its stance and said for the first time there should be an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza.
• The U.S. informed allies that Russia could deploy a space-based nuclear weapon designed to take out satellites as early as this year. — Bloomberg
• Russian officials refused calls for an independent examination of Alexei Navalny’s remains.
• A Russian court extended Evan Gershkovich’s pretrial detention.

Energy

The Biden administration plans to allow year-round sales of E15 gasoline next year. — Reuters

Technology

Advances in artificial intelligence are rapidly accelerating, but that is mostly taking place in the private sector. That has heightened concerns among some AI researchers because the amount of information companies are sharing about these achievements is shrinking, potentially hurting future innovation.

Media

A.G. Sulzberger, publisher of the New York Times, acknowledged earlier this week that the White House has been “extremely upset” over the newspaper’s reporting on President Biden’s age.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio subpoenaed Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra to obtain records on unaccompanied child migrants who have been charged with crimes.

What the Right isn’t reading: Arizona GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake, who alleged election fraud was the reason she lost the 2022 gubernatorial election, said in an interview that she doesn’t “know who exactly stole the election.”

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Jasmine Crockett is a Democratic congresswoman from Texas. We asked her about Donald Trump’s $399 high-top sneakers.