Africa

1. Budget limbo in S. Africa
2. Kenya’s RSF fallout
3. Renewables under Trump
4. Nigeria sues Binance
5. Weekend Reads

Texting with a Lagos filmmaker about Yoruba music and Afrobeats.

S. Africa limbo after budget delay

South African businesses are grappling with uncertainty around the government’s economic plans after the unprecedented postponement of the budget this week.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana on Wednesday delayed his budget speech until Mar. 12 after the Democratic Alliance, a main coalition partner of the African National Congress, opposed plans to increase value-added tax to 17% from 15%. The government wants to spark growth in Africa’s most advanced economy without increasing borrowing — public debt is now 75% of GDP, compared to 27% in 2008 — but VAT has become a major sticking point: The ANC sees the tax hike as a way to avoid future credit downgrades but the DA says it would hit the poorest South Africans struggling with the cost of living.

The row marks the biggest policy disagreement since the ANC was forced into a coalition last year. And, with South Africa’s tax year set to start on Mar. 1, businesses lack finality around the government’s plans. “Uncertainty is something we can ill afford,” said Khulekani Mathe, CEO of the Business Unity South Africa organization, an employers’ group. He added that the delay casts doubt on the coalition’s “ability to collaborate effectively.”

Kenya’s tea traders fear RSF fallout

Kenya’s tea exporters voiced concern about potential blowback from Sudan, a key market for the country’s biggest commodity, after the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group held a symbolic political meeting in Nairobi this week.

The Sudanese government described Kenya’s hosting of the RSF, which Khartoum’s forces have been fighting in a civil war since March 2023, as “an act of hostility against the Sudanese people,” vowing to take “all necessary measures to redress the balance.” On Thursday it recalled its ambassador to Nairobi in protest.

Sudan ranks among the top 10 markets for Kenyan tea, Nairobi’s biggest export and leading foreign exchange earner. “A breakdown in relations could easily become an economic problem,” Ian Mwangi, a Nairobi-based trade consultant, told Semafor.

African renewables under Trump

Investors must adjust to US climate skepticism under the Trump administration in order to ensure renewable energy continues dominating infrastructure finance in Africa, a private capital industry figure told Semafor.

“African businesses, investors, and governments must adapt by seeking alternative partnerships,” said Nadia Kouassi Coulibaly, head of research analytics at the African Private Capital Association (AVCA) industry body, pointing to European and Asian investors.

Despite the political shift, “sustainable investing will remain a viable and strategic approach,” she said, continuing a trend highlighted in an AVCA report seen by Semafor Africa. It showed the energy sector — dominated by renewables — led private capital infrastructure investments in Africa between 2012 and 2023, with deals worth more than $27 billion. The $11 billion telecommunications industry was the next largest, followed by the digital infrastructure and transport sectors.

— Alexis Akwagyiram

Nigeria sues crypto giant Binance

The amount Nigeria is suing cryptocurrency exchange Binance for over economic losses and back taxes. Nigeria’s federal tax agency said the crypto firm should pay corporate income tax for its 2022 and 2023 operations in the country, accusing it of also influencing the depreciation of the naira during this period. Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, has not yet commented. The lawsuit comes after Binance official Tigran Gambaryan, a former US tax investigator, was detained for several months in Nigeria last year, a move that critics said was a means of extorting Binance. Gambaryan has in recent days posted details of his ordeal, alleging misconduct by Nigerian agencies and officials.

Weekend Reads

• China has forged 23 space pacts with African nations in a bid to surpass the US and become the industry’s dominant power, Reuters reports. It has publicly donated satellites, space-monitoring telescopes, and ground stations to countries including Egypt, Ethiopia, Namibia, and Nigeria. What hasn’t previously been reported, the outlet notes, is that Beijing has access to the data and images collected from this space technology as it rapidly expands its global surveillance network.

• Patients in sub-Saharan Africa face a “Wild West” of treatments for snake bites, The Bureau of Investigative Journalism (TBIJ) reveals, with ineffective antivenoms that are badly made, badly marketed, and badly regulated. An estimated 20,000 people died from snakebites in the region in 2023. In wealthy countries like Australia, where antivenom is high quality and free to patients, TBIJ reports, snakebites cause one to two deaths per year.

• The long-planned “Africa Energy Bank” to fund oil and gas projects on the continent must balance profit with climate considerations, experts tell Al Jazeera. Angola, Libya, and Nigeria are among the countries involved in the initiative, which comes as Western financial backers move away from investing in fossil fuels. One associate professor of economics said Africa should instead leverage its infrastructure to build out its “huge” renewable energy potential, harnessing solar, wind, and geothermal resources, as well as its supply of critical minerals needed for green technologies.

• A proposed global shipping levy could provide a lifeline for urgent climate action in Africa, writes a maritime policy adviser for African Arguments. Discussions over a flat tax on the industry’s carbon emissions are due to be finalized in April. Kenya, Liberia, and Nigeria joining the pro-levy majority at the International Maritime Organization in January was “an important and welcome development,” says Eldine Glees, urging African governments to push further for a strong levy.

• Shifting international power dynamics under a second Donald Trump presidency could galvanize Africa’s calls for reparations from Europe. That’s the argument put forward by Liliane Umubyeyi in The Guardian. The demand for reparations isn’t new, she notes, but says “Trump’s return could push Europe to rethink its indifference” and role in preventing economic development on the continent.

Business & Macro

🇿🇦 Mining giant Anglo American wrote down the value of its South African diamond subsidiary De Beers by $2.9 billion due to a “really, really difficult” market for diamonds, Anglo American’s CEO Duncan Wanblad said.

🇲🇱 Barrick Gold reached an agreement with Mali to end a years-long dispute that will see the Canadian miner pay the government $438 million and resume operations at its Loulo-Gounkoto mine in western Mali, Reuters reported.

🇳🇬 The Central Bank of Nigeria held its main interest rate unchanged at 27.5% following a rebasing of inflation data by the government’s statistics agency. The bank’s monetary policy committee had raised the rate by 16 percentage points since 2022.

Climate & Energy

🇿🇦 Neosun Energy, a solar energy company in Pakistan, began installing a solar energy system in Johannesburg’s Jet Park industrial area that will generate about 1.35 GWh of electricity a year.

🇳🇬 Nigerian refineries have contributed less than half of the 50 million liters of petrol consumed daily in the country since the beginning of the year, a local oil sector regulator said.

Geopolitics & Policy

🇳🇪 A national conference in Niger, where the military seized power in a 2023 coup, proposed a five-year timeline for transition to democratic rule. It recommended abolishing all political parties for a new charter that will permit no more than five new parties.

🇫🇷 France will keep 80 military officers in Côte d’Ivoire for training purposes and for a “joint detachment” that could be used as the need arises in the country, said France’s Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu.

Tech & Deals

🇲🇿 British International Investment, Swedfund, and Norfund jointly invested $85 million in AgDevCo, an agribusiness investor in sub-Saharan Africa focused on Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia.

🌍 African e-commerce company Jumia’s revenue fell by 10% to $167.5 million in 2024, it reported, saying the firm would this year focus on expanding outside urban centers and strengthening relationships with international sellers.

Bobo Omotayo is executive producer of The Odyssey, a documentary about the history of Yoruba music and its influence on Afrobeats and beyond. The film is due to hit festivals this year and streamers by 2026.

Malian director Souleymane Cissé, a pioneer of African cinema, died in Bamako on Wednesday, aged 84. Cissé came to global prominence in 1987 when his film Yeelen (The Light) won the Jury Prize at the Cannes Film Festival, making him the first filmmaker from sub-Saharan Africa to win an honor at the event. His career was “marked by a commitment to African storytelling, deep humanism and profound political engagement,” wrote Le Monde. Even on the day of his death he urged Mali’s junta to back filmmakers. “It is not enough to make cinema, the works must also be visible. May the authorities help us with the construction of cinemas,” he told a press conference. “This is the appeal I make to them before my death.”

US President Donald Trump’s potential rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine could deliver a major victory for Russia’s oil and gas companies — at the expense of their American competitors, Semafor’s Tim McDonnell wrote.

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— Alexis Akwagyiram, Preeti Jha, Alexander Onukwue, and Yinka Adegoke.