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South Africa’s budget, Nigeria’s capital importation, Zimbabwe’s emergency polio drive, and Cape Tow͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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February 22, 2024
semafor

Africa

Africa
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Alexis Akwagyiram
Alexis Akwagyiram

Hello! Welcome to Semafor Africa, where we’re counting down the days to South Africa’s general election. Campaigning was already in full swing but the announcement this week that voting will take place on May 29 means the country’s political parties now know their deadline. In a year that will be defined by elections, South Africa’s is, in my opinion, the most eye-catching vote. It would mark a generational shift if the ruling ANC fails to secure a majority for the first time since coming to power 30 years ago after the end of apartheid. That could also involve the move to coalition government, with the ANC having to govern with the help of smaller parties for the first time.

Business leaders, investors and foreign powers will watch South Africa’s vote keenly. Africa’s most industrialized economy has floundered in recent years, largely due to its struggling state-run companies and the rot that set in under erstwhile president Jacob Zuma. As Sam Mkokeli reports in this edition, yesterday’s budget was a final attempt by the government to present its economic vision before the vote. Meanwhile, South Africa has increasingly clung to its BRICS partners — particularly Russia and China — to create an opposing force to U.S. dominance in global affairs. The outcome of the election is likely to dictate the country’s economic and foreign policy trajectory over the coming years. And, to add an extra layer of suspense, Zuma — now an insurgent backing a new party — and firebrand opposition politician Julius Malema are among the maverick figures who may play an outsized role as the election draws nearer.

🟡 Elsewhere, we continue our series on African healthcare with a look at Ethiopia. We’ve previously looked at the exodus of nurses out of the continent and efforts to stem the flow of medical staff. But, in this edition’s main story, we look at Ethiopia’s ambitious plan to create an African medical hub.

🟡🟡 For those of you in Nairobi, Yinka, Martin, Muchira and Samuel Getachew are hosting a Semafor Africa get together this evening. Everyone else can follow us on social media here, and help spread the word with our signup here.

Stat

The total debt that Niger has defaulted on after failing to make a $22 million repayment earlier this month. The West African nation previously missed payments in August, November, and January. Regional economic bloc Ecowas imposed sanctions that froze Niger’s assets at the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO), while the lender closed its branches in the country, following a military coup in July. That same month, a planned $51 million bond issuance by Niger was canceled by the BCEAO. Ecowas is set to hold a summit on Saturday in Abuja, Nigeria, where some sanctions may be lifted.

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Samuel Getachew

Ethiopia bids to be an African medical tourism hub but its health system is struggling

Roha Medical Campus

THE NEWS

ADDIS ABABA — Ethiopia hopes to reinvent its biggest city as an African medical tourism hub with a new $400 million hospital complex set to open next year. But the plan for a major for-profit hospital in a country with a health system close to collapse is already being criticized.

The Roha Medical Campus, which is backed by U.S. investors, is being built close to Bole Airport in Addis Ababa, which is already one of Africa’s busiest air transit hubs. The hope is that patients will stop in the city for medical services rather than flying on to the West, or countries like Turkey, or India.

Africans spend more than $5 billion annually traveling outside the continent, according to Roha’s analysis of statistics from the World Bank and the U.S. National Library of Medicine. Many people are seeking advanced medical treatment especially as noncommunicable diseases like cancer, diabetes, and hypertension rise across the continent. Ethiopians spend an estimated $500 million on medical tourism, according to an unpublished health ministry report seen by Semafor Africa.

Lia Tadesse, who stepped down as minister of health earlier this month, has been a key supporter of the project. She told Semafor Africa the government had “prioritized support” for projects like the new center as it could help reduce the need for Ethiopians to spend scarce foreign exchange on seeking medical treatment abroad and open up a new market for the country.

Support from the government has included the Addis Ababa city administration availing 28 hectares of land for its construction and favorable tax status for medical supplies and equipment it imports.

KNOW MORE

Accessing adequate healthcare remains a major challenge for most of Ethiopia’s roughly 120 million citizens. Damage to medical buildings during conflicts over the last two years has added to pressure on the health system caused by a long-term shortage of hospitals and clinics in Africa’s second most populous country. And those facilities that have remained open often lack basic equipment and supplies.

The situation is exacerbated by a shortage in foreign currency reserves. Hospitals report being unable to purchase necessary medical imports due to a shortage of foreign currency like the U.S. dollar. The forex scarcity has seen some unscrupulous entrepreneurs illegally importing and selling medicines at exorbitant prices and without adhering to regulatory standards.

These challenges lead middle class and wealthy Ethiopians to travel abroad for surgery, advanced tests, and specialized treatment.

ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT

Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region has been one of the regions most underserved by healthcare services in recent years. A hard-fought two-year war between rebels and the country’s army had devastating consequences for its hospitals and clinics. “The region’s health care system has collapsed,” said Fasika Amdeslasie, a surgeon at Mekele University’s College of Health Sciences, a publicly owned institution.

“A majority of our people can’t even afford basic medicine let alone basic care. While such enterprise [Roha Medical Campus] is welcomed, I hope the government gives its urgency and priorities to the public sector more,” the surgeon told Semafor Africa.

Read on for Samuel’s take on what this could mean for Ethiopia’s health system →

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Evidence

The flow of capital into Nigeria’s economy reduced by 27% to $3.9 billion in 2023, the national statistics agency said, marking the lowest figure since 2007. Most major sectors of the economy recorded steep falls in inflows, except the production/manufacturing, and information technology sectors. Loans of $2.3 billion made up over half of the total inflows, as foreign direct, and portfolio investment each reduced by about 19%. Reforms to remove petrol subsidies and unify foreign exchange rates by the then new Tinubu administration last May led to a devalued naira currency and increased the cost of doing business. It was a year in which some multinationals began to close operations in the country, while others — particularly foreign airlines — complained about being unable to repatriate their earnings. The airlines say $700 million of their money remains trapped in Nigeria.

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State of Happiness
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Focus

South Africa targets gold and currency reserves in pre-election budget

Reuters/Esa Alexander

CAPE TOWN — South Africa will use a third of its gold and foreign exchange reserves to manage mounting debt and create spending room in an election year. Finance minister Enoch Godongwana announced this unusual move in the country’s parliament in Cape Town on Wednesday.

The announcement came a day after President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that the country’s general elections would be held on May 29. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) faces its toughest campaign since Nelson Mandela led it to power in 1994 to end apartheid rule.

South Africa will withdraw 150 billion rand ($8 billion) over three years. Godongwana said steps will be taken to ensure that sufficient buffers are available to absorb exchange rate swings and the solvency of the Reserve Bank is not compromised. The financial markets seemed to welcome the move, with the currency appreciating while bond yields went down.

The country’s biggest worker union federation also welcomed the move. “It is critical these reserves be used strategically to stabilize and rebuild Eskom and Transnet in particular, as this can only be a once off relief and needs to be utilized to grow the economy and reduce unemployment,” said Matthew Parks, spokesman for the Congress of South African Trade Union.

Sam Mkokeli

Read on for Sam’s View on the budget. →

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Tech Talk
Chesnot/Getty Images

Crypto exchange Binance said its users in Nigeria are “experiencing issues” using its website, fueling speculation that the country has made good on a threat to restrict crypto sites.

Nigerian media reported on Wednesday that the Nigerian Communications Commission has directed telecom operators to suspend access to crypto sites, including Binance and Coinbase, the U.S. crypto company. A spokesperson for the commission declined to comment.

Binance is one of the most-used apps for buying and selling crypto currencies in Nigeria. Its peer-to-peer feature, which enables users to trade directly with each other by advertising deals, made it popular with users after the Nigerian central bank banned lenders from enabling crypto transactions three years ago. The central bank lifted the restriction on banks in December and is considering issuing licenses.

But as the naira plunged to record lows this week, Binance limited trades on Tuesday, saying it was targeting “users behaving in a manipulative way.” The platform prevented users from selling their holding of USDT, a stablecoin pegged at par with the U.S. dollar, and fixed a price for users who wanted to buy the token against the norm of letting sellers determine prices. While access to its website is restricted, the company said its app remains available.

Alexander Onukwue

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Briefing

Relations between DRC and Rwanda are deteriorating

Guerchom Ndebo/AFP via Getty Images

→ What’s happening? Tensions are escalating between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) following the advance of M23 rebel forces in recent weeks towards the city of Goma in eastern DRC. Dozens have reportedly been killed in the assault and the United Nations has accused M23 of “indiscriminate bombing.” DRC President Felix Tshisekedi has accused the Paul Kagame-led Rwandan government of backing M23 to destabilize the country. Rwanda has described the situation in eastern DRC as a national security threat and vowed to defend itself.

→ What’s the background to the conflict? Two years after defeating the government responsible for the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, the Kagame-led Rwandan government went after ethnic extremist groups that were among the millions that fled Rwanda for neighboring DRC. This marked the first of two wars in eastern DRC and the beginning of constant conflict and instability in the region. M23, a group forged in that conflict, re-emerged in 2021 after years of being dormant. It is only one of over 100 armed groups vying for control of lucrative mines and trade routes in the mineral-rich region. Eastern DRC’s mineral resources include cobalt, a key component in many electronic devices.

→ Why is this escalation different from other periods of unrest? “The big fear is that this escalation could trigger a direct military conflict between Rwanda and DRC because of the military build up reported on both sides,” explained Nairobi-based security consultant Brian Githinji, warning that a war would have devastating consequences for the region. The UN is also warning of the risk of direct confrontation between the two countries, while the U.S. is urging them to “walk back from the brink of war.”

→ Why is this escalation happening? Githinji said the expiration of a ceasefire on Dec. 28, 2023, coupled with the exit of an East African peacekeeping force in November last year, had left eastern DRC exposed and allowed the M23 rebels to advance on Goma. He argued that the offensive had influenced the first battlefield deployment in DRC of a Southern Africa peacekeeping force in February.

→ Why is the U.S. criticizing Rwanda? The U.S., in a Feb. 18 statement, condemned Rwanda for its alleged support of M23 and demanded that Kigali withdraw military personnel and surface to air missiles from DRC. The statement was expected to put pressure on Rwanda, which has long denied links to M23. In response, however, Rwanda said it would seek clarification from Washington on whether the statement “represents an abrupt shift in policy, or simply a lack of internal coordination.”

→ Who else has commented? France on Tuesday called on Rwanda to “cease all support for M23 and to withdraw from Congolese territory.” While it welcomed the statement, DRC called for international economic sanctions against Rwanda over their support of M23.

→ What does the UN want? The UN has called on M23 to cease its offensive, noting the growing strain on resources to support an estimated 800,000 internally displaced people in the region, and 2.5 million more displaced in the larger North Kivu province. The UN Security Council on Tuesday sanctioned six people from five armed groups in eastern DRC.

Martin Siele

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Need to Know
Wang Guansen/Xinhua via Getty Images

🇹🇿 Tanzania will modernize its largest city after agreeing a loan from the World Bank worth nearly $400 million. The agreement will kick off the second phase of the Dar es Salaam Metropolitan Development Project. Some 5 million people live in Dar es Salaam. The project will upgrade the city’s roadways, waste disposal services, marketplaces, and canals, while funding the construction of nine bus terminals. The funds will also address climate change concerns in the region.

🇪🇹 Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on Tuesday said that his government is considering selling 10% of state-owned Ethio Telecom to the public. Abiy told the government’s investment arm that board members would decide on how to proceed with the sale, a move he said could be a “game-changer” for the country’s growth aspirations. Reuters reported that a source close to the sale said the state would retain 45% of the company, sell 45% to investors, and list the remaining 10% on the stock exchange. Ethio Telecom has 72 million subscribers and currently competes with Kenya’s Safaricom which only has around 5 million subscribers since launching in October 2022.

🇲🇿 Mozambique’s Ressano Garcia rail line, which links the nation’s largest port to the South African border, will receive $40 million in upgrade financing from the African Development Bank. The funding is expected to improve the line’s efficiency in transporting minerals. Iron ore and coal are distributed via the rail line — and it is a key shipping route for South Africa.

🇿🇼 Zimbabwe has launched an emergency vaccination campaign to protect more than 4 million children against a mutated strain of polio. The virus mutated from a strain used to create an oral vaccine, and paralyzed a 10-year-old girl last month. Officials are using a new polio vaccine specifically designed to reduce the risk of the virus mutating in the future. The health ministry, which began the campaign on Tuesday, said it is collaborating with health authorities in at least five other African countries that had recently detected the deadly virus.

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Outro
Adek Berry/AFP via Getty Images

A ship holding 19,000 cows docked near Cape Town departed South African waters for Iraq on Tuesday, taking with it a smell locals described as “putrid.” The 623-foot-long ship, owned by a Kuwait-based livestock trade company, had docked near the city’s harbor on Sunday to replenish its stocks. Locals have expressed their relief at the ship’s departure, with some describing the smell as “unimaginable,” The New York Times reported. South Africa’s Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals has lobbied the government to ban the practice of transporting live animals by sea — and while this is the first time such a ship has moored in Cape Town, the shipping of live cattle remains common practice around the world.

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— Yinka, Alexis, Alexander Onukwue, Martin Siele, and Muchira Gachenge

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