Principals

1. Three years of Russia’s war
2. House’s budget move
3. Biden rule rollbacks
4. DOGE’s symbolic deadline
5. Retirement ‘crisis’
6. US missile shield
7. CPAC takeaways

PDB: Dems and Republicans further apart than ever on views of Israel

Trump, Macron to hold press conference at 2pm … Conservatives win big in German parliamentary elections … WSJ: RNC email system breached by Chinese hackers last summer

Ukraine at odds with US on war’s anniversary

Three years after Russia’s invasion, Ukraine finds itself increasingly in the crosshairs of the country that had once been its biggest backer. President Trump has insisted on a deal on critical minerals in exchange for US aid, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is still demanding better terms. Trump administration officials are also pushing a watered-down UN resolution on the war’s anniversary and using softer rhetoric towards Russia as they look to keep Moscow at the table for peace talks. The war “was provoked. It doesn’t necessarily mean it was provoked by the Russians,” Trump envoy Steve Witkoff said on CNN. Ukraine will feature prominently today in a G7 leader call and in Trump’s meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron. The Europeans want to convince Trump to agree to a limited US role in a peacekeeping plan for Ukraine.

House Republicans’ moment of truth

The House will try this week to approve its budget blueprint for an all-encompassing bill addressing border, energy and the 2017 Trump tax cuts. We’re told leadership “feels good” about passing the resolution, which sets up steep spending reductions to pay for the tax cuts. But some members are concerned about potentially slashing entitlement programs. “I want to hear how $880 billion will be cut in E&C and how it will impact Medicaid,” Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., said. Meanwhile, the Senate is fresh off advancing its own border-first plan, which leaves tax cuts for later. Senators are privately skeptical the House can move anything, but are publicly cheering on the lower chamber. “The best thing that could happen is that they do one bill that substantially meets the goal,” Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham said. “I think we need to have a backup plan.”

— Kadia Goba and Burgess Everett

GOP lawmakers’ Biden-era targets

House and Senate Republicans want to vote as soon as this week on scrapping Biden administration regulations on bank mergers, WiFi hotspots, and oil and gas production, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller and Burgess Everett report. The resolutions they’re eyeing would use the Congressional Review Act to undo an Office of the Comptroller of the Currency rule that created more hurdles for bank mergers; a FCC order that allowed the subsidy of hotspots for students; and a Bureau of Ocean Energy Management rule that required some oil and gas companies to submit archaeological reports. Notably, lawmakers have yet to initiate any CRA repeals — and they only have 60 legislative days from when the regulation was finalized to act. The House has already put two resolutions on the schedule for this week that would undo Energy Department and EPA rules.

Agencies rebuff Musk’s directive

Today is the deadline for federal employees to respond to a request from the Office of Personnel Management to list their recent accomplishments — but it’s not clear they’ll face any repercussions for (not) replying to the mass email, despite Elon Musk’s vow to treat non-responses as resignations. Multiple agencies, including the Defense Department, FBI, and ODNI, appeared to be surprised by the demand and quickly instructed employees to ignore it. At least some at the White House also seemed caught off-guard, despite chief of staff Susie Wiles recently urging Musk to better coordinate on DOGE actions. A White House official clarified to Semafor that DOGE doesn’t have the authority to fire federal workers and that it’s up to agency managers to determine their workers’ productivity, as well as any consequences for missing Musk’s deadline.

— Shelby Talcott

BlackRock, lawmakers look to tackle retirement ‘crisis’

BlackRock and the Bipartisan Policy Center are convening lawmakers and executives next month for a summit meant to address the “impending crisis” surrounding Americans’ retirement plans, Semafor’s Rachel Witkowski writes. The March 12 gathering will bring together executives like BlackRock’s Larry Fink and JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon and lawmakers like Sens. Katie Britt, R-Ala., Todd Young, R-Ind., and Cory Booker, D-N.J., and Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., with the goal of coming up with legislative plans to address retirement issues. (Semafor is a media partner for the event.) A survey conducted by BlackRock last month found US voters increasingly dissatisfied with their retirement plans, with more than half saying they feared running out of money before retirement even more than they feared death.

Israel’s missile maker proposes system for US shield

Israel Aerospace Industries, one of the country’s biggest defense companies, is touting its Arrow missile defense system in response to Trump’s executive order mandating the creation of an American defense shield, IAI CEO Boaz Levy told Semafor. The Arrow system — codeveloped with the US Missile Defense Agency — is the backbone of Israel’s air defenses. It successfully intercepted hundreds of Iranian missiles in April and October, demonstrating real-world effectiveness. “We believe President Trump means he needs something Arrow-like, and we see this as an opportunity to work together in America,” Levy said in an interview in Abu Dhabi. “We are improving our capabilities, and we have a lot of lessons learned” after the Iranian attacks.

Trump lays out nationalist agenda at CPAC

Trump used his weekend appearance at CPAC to home in on his nationalist agenda. He vowed to end the conflict in Ukraine with benefits for the US, while overstating how much the US has contributed to backing Kyiv against Russia. “We’re going to get our money back, because it’s not fair,” Trump told activists in Maryland. Trump’s speech capped a four-day celebration of his aggressive moves at home and abroad; his top officials said he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize, and congressional Republicans pledged to advance his agenda. “The entire federal bureaucracy works for President Trump, and not the other way around,” said White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller. Speakers took potshots at the courts slowing down some of the Trump and DOGE agenda, with most expressing confidence that they wouldn’t stall the president for long.

— David Weigel

Debatable: Is Trump’s ‘Fork in the Road’ program legal?

A recent federal court ruling allowed Trump to implement a plan to slash the federal government by letting employees resign while remaining on the payroll through September — but did little to settle questions about its broader legality. The decision, by a Clinton-appointed judge, paved the way for thousands to agree to the “Fork in the Road” program, but doesn’t rule out future litigation. Nick Bednar, a University of Minnesota law professor, argues that the deferred resignation program “likely violates a number of statutory provisions,” pointing to the looming government shutdown deadline and existing limits on administrative leave. OPM, meanwhile, says that employees who accept the offer would be in the same boat as other federal workers affected by a shutdown and that “the decision to grant administrative leave, and for how long, lies largely within the agency’s discretion.”

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: House Republicans are planning a floor vote on their budget resolution after 6pm on Tuesday — but several factors could cause it to shift.

Playbook: Wall Street is starting to worry about the stock market in the Trump era, with some like JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warning “that investors are plowing cash into stocks with inflated prices.”

WaPo: President Trump’s criticisms of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “have unnerved even some fellow Republicans.”

White House

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth defended President Trump’s decision to remove Air Force Gen. CQ Brown Jr. as Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman on Saturday, calling him “not the right man for the moment.”
• The Trump administration is putting much of USAID’s international staff on leave and firing some 1,600 US-based workers.

Congress

• The Senate will vote this evening on advancing President Trump’s pick for Army secretary, Daniel Driscoll.
• The House Rules Committee will meet at 4pm on the budget resolution.

Outside the Beltway

• The Vatican said the “night went well” for Pope Francis, after describing him as in critical condition.
• A measles outbreak in Texas and New Mexico has sickened at least 90 people.

Polls

• Republicans and Democrats are further apart on views of Israel than they’ve ever been, according to polling from Gallup conducted earlier this month. Whereas 83% of Republicans hold favorable views of Israel, only 33% of Democrats feel the same — a record gap. Republicans are also more likely to view Russia and Saudi Arabia positively, while a significantly greater share of Democrats than Republicans view Ukraine in favorable light.

Economy

• The wealthiest 10% of Americans now account for 49.7% of all spending, the highest since records began in 1989. — WSJ

National Security

• After being sworn in as FBI director, Kash Patel is expected to take over as acting director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. — ABC
• President Trump announced that Patel had tapped conservative podcaster Dan Bongino to be his deputy. The position doesn’t require Senate confirmation; with his selection on Sunday, the bureau’s top two jobs will be filled by men who have never worked for it before.

Foreign Policy

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would resign in exchange for peace in Ukraine or for NATO membership.
• The Trump administration took aim at China with several moves in recent days, including a directive designed to beef up restrictions on Chinese investment in the US.

Media

• Joy Reid’s MSNBC show was cancelled.

Principals Team

Edited by Morgan Chalfant, deputy Washington editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Jeanne Shaheen is a US senator from New Hampshire and the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Large corporations are shopping for underground bunkers that can survive a nuclear blast to protect their data centers and C-suite employees as geopolitical tensions rise. The first adopters are primarily cryptocurrency firms, companies that build the facilities told Semafor’s Rachyl Jones.

Larry Hall, owner of Kansas-based Survival Condo, said he recently priced an underground data center and executive suite space to a crypto company for $64 million. The pitch is the apocalypse. “The nuclear clock is moving closer to midnight,” he said.