Africa

1. AGOA uncertainty grows
2. Ending the aid model
3. South Africa blackouts
4. New fertility findings
5. The Week Ahead

The Ethiopian volcano spewing an unusually large volume of methane.

US-Africa trade deal questions

Africa watchers in Washington, DC, are increasingly skeptical about the future of the African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) trade deal that offers sub-Saharan African countries duty-free access to the US market.

The 25-year-old program, set to expire in September, is unlikely to survive in its current form, Capitol Hill staffers and analysts told Semafor, as US President Donald Trump pursues a policy of imposing tariffs on longstanding partner nations.

One congressional staffer, who spoke to Semafor on condition of anonymity, said they viewed AGOA as “80% dead.” News that four Republican Congressmen this month called for South Africa to be ruled ineligible for AGOA over geopolitical concerns has only added to the uncertainty.

Zainab Usman, director of the Africa program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said she was “not encouraged” by the tone of discussions she has heard about AGOA’s future in Washington. But she said it could be “reframed” within the Trump administration’s “transactional mindset.”

An opportunity to reset aid

The world should prepare for the end of a decades-old international aid model, argues Ken Opalo, an African politics expert at Georgetown University, in a column for Semafor.

There is no doubt that international aid from wealthy donor nations has helped improve human welfare at scale around the globe, he writes, with public health the gold standard. But the aid model has been far from perfect. “By engendering aid dependency, it robbed these [aid receiving] countries of the chance to cultivate policy autonomy,” Opalo argues. “It’s imperative to prepare for what comes next.”

S. Africa implements new power cuts

The number of megawatts South Africa’s state energy utility Eskom removed from the grid Sunday as part of a program of rolling blackouts to ration energy. This level of “loadshedding” has not been implemented since last February, reported Bloomberg. Authorities took the step after power generation units broke down at some plants. The aging coal-fired power stations that provide most of South Africa’s electricity are prone to breakdowns, which typically prompts the planned outages. The blackouts can last for up to 12 hours a day, hampering growth in Africa’s most industrialized economy in recent years.

Women’s education influences family size

Women with higher education levels in sub-Saharan Africa are leading the shift toward smaller family sizes, new research found. A study analysed data from more than a million women in 39 countries across the region between 1986-2022. Researchers found it was not only a woman’s personal educational attainment that reduced fertility rates — a known driver of demographic change — but also the broader influence of other women’s educational levels in her surroundings. “Women with less education often follow the behaviors and norms of more educated women in their community,” a co-author of the study said, telling Semafor the findings “can be used for education-specific fertility forecasting.” The team, from institutions in Germany and Austria, hopes the study’s insights will help in the design of future family-planning programs.

— Preeti Jha

The Week Ahead

• Feb. 24-27: The Nigeria International Energy Summit takes place in Abuja.
• Feb. 24-25: The B20, which connects the business community with G20 governments, launches in Cape Town.
• Feb. 25: The African Development Bank launches an action plan to combat money laundering.
• Feb. 26-27: The Africa Media Festival takes place in Nairobi.
• Feb. 28: Kenya releases inflation data.

Business & Macro

🇿🇦 South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to hold a special cabinet meeting to discuss the postponed budget.

🇳🇬 A Nigerian court ordered the final forfeiture of more than $5 million and multiple properties linked to former central bank chief Godwin Emefiele because they were the alleged “proceeds of unlawful activity.”

Climate & Energy

🇰🇪 Kenya’s electricity transmission company moved closer to signing a $347 million deal to build new power lines that will add 300 megawatts of electricity to the national grid.

🇿🇦 SolarAfrica, a commercial and industrial green energy provider in southern Africa, raised $98 million from Investec and RMB for SunCentral, a 1 gigawatt solar utility being built in South Africa’s Northern Cape province.

Geopolitics & Policy

🇨🇩 DR Congo President Felix Tshisekedi said he will reach out to the opposition to create a “government of national unity,” as the country’s east remains rocked by violence.

🇸🇩 🇰🇪 Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group and allies signed a charter in Nairobi that paves the way for the establishment of a parallel government.

Tech & Deals

🇿🇦 🇳🇱 Prosus, a subsidiary of South Africa’s Naspers Group, will buy Dutch food delivery company Just Eat Takeaway.com for $4.3 billion.

🇰🇪 British International Investment is providing $100 million to KCB Bank Kenya to help it lend to climate-related and women-led businesses.

Mount Fentale, an active volcano in Ethiopia’s Great Rift Valley, is spewing unusually large amounts of methane from its crater. A Canadian satellite detected emissions at a rate of 58 metric tons per hour on Jan. 31, New Scientist reported, equivalent to the emissions from burning 20 million kg of coal. The observation comes after an increase in regional seismic activity prompted the evacuation of tens of thousands of people. Volcanoes more commonly release carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide, a volcanologist told the outlet. The exact source of the methane remains unclear. The figures help fill the data gap on methane emissions, a major global warming contributor, as a growing number of satellites monitor emissions from both human and natural sources.

Two weeks after Carl Eschenbach laid off 1,750 Workday employees in the interest of “prioritizing innovation investments like AI,” Eschenbach is not buying the idea that artificial intelligence will replace vast swaths of the workforce, writes Semafor’s Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson.

In a year, Eschenbach predicts Workday may have even more people on its payroll than before, but they will increasingly be focused on AI, and more spread out around the world.

If you’re enjoying the Semafor Africa newsletter and finding it useful, please share with your family and friends. We’d love to have them aboard too.

Let’s make sure this email doesn’t end up in your junk folder by adding africa@semafor.com to your contacts. In Gmail you should drag this newsletter over to your ‘Primary’ tab.

You can reply to this email and send us your news tips, gossip, and good vibes.

— Alexis Akwagyiram, Preeti Jha, Alexander Onukwue, and Yinka Adegoke.