Principals

1. Shutdown draws closer
2. Growing hopes for Gaza ceasefire
3. Biden vs. ‘uncommitted’
4. NATO expands
5. Gallup: Border fears rising
6. New York, new map
7. Justices take on social media censorship

PDB: Senate Republicans expected to discuss House tax bill this week

Pro-Palestinian protesters show up for Biden’s ‘Late Night’ appearance … Harris meets with voting rights leaders … Politico: Musk’s Tesla is the biggest winner in Biden’s EV charging push

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

McConnell and Schumer try to fend off a shutdown

The Big Four congressional leaders are meeting today with President Biden to discuss how to prevent the government from shutting down starting March 2. During Monday’s lead-up to the meeting, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer made it crystal clear that they, at least, are on the same page. “As always, the task at hand will require that everyone rows in the same direction: Toward clean appropriations and away from poison pills,” McConnell said in a floor speech, adding he believed there was “just enough time” to keep the government funded. Schumer said there had been “good progress” made in spending negotiations but “our House Republican colleagues are still struggling to figure themselves out.” Speaking of whom: House conservatives remain irate at recently being told by House GOP leaders to accept “singles and doubles” instead of “home runs” on their priorities. “We can’t let the swamp dictate the terms,” Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, posted on X. It’s still an open question what Speaker Mike Johnson’s move will be as he faces the choice between a potential shutdown or the wrath of his right flank. But some members in his conference are already showing despair. As one House Republican told Axios: “We feel like there’s no plan, morale is really low.”

— Joseph Zeballos-Roig

Biden predicts Gaza ceasefire within the next week

Leave it to Joe Biden to break news on an ice cream run. The president told reporters Monday in New York that a ceasefire in Gaza allowing for the release of hostages could be imminent. “My national security adviser tells me that we’re close, we’re close, we’re not done yet. My hope is by next Monday we’ll have a ceasefire,” Biden said. Biden expanded on the comments during an appearance on late-night television, saying Israel would be willing to commit to a ceasefire during Ramadan if a hostage deal is released. Israeli officials said they were surprised by his remarks, the Associated Press reported, while Hamas publicly downplayed the notion of progress. The comments punctuated other signs of progress in the negotiations mediated by Qatar. Israel has privately agreed to a U.S. proposal that would see a group of Palestinians convicted of major terrorism charges released in exchange for Israeli soldiers jailed by Hamas, the New York Times reported. For the time being, Israel is still pressing forward with the war and believes the Hamas leader behind the Oct. 7 attacks, Yehiya Sinwar, is hiding in the tunnels beneath Gaza surrounded by “a human shield of hostages” to protect him, the Washington Post reported.

Democrats look to Michigan for signs of Gaza blowback

Democrats will be watching for protest votes in Michigan’s primary tonight, where polls close at 8 p.m. local time and one million people have already cast ballots. A group of high-profile elected Democrats in the state have pushed voters to choose the ballot’s “uncommitted” option as a way to urge President Biden to change course on Gaza. “We’re just trying to get to a threshold of at least 15% of the vote,” Listen to Michigan campaign manager Layla Elabed — and sister of Rep. Rashida Tlaib, who is supporting the effort — told Semafor. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer sounded the alarm this week, warning voters that the “uncommitted” effort would play into Donald Trump’s hands. “I am encouraging people to cast an affirmative vote for President Biden,” she said on CNN. Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, who scaled back his campaign and canceled a visit to Michigan, also remains on the ballot. On the Republican side, just 16 of the state’s 55 delegates are in play; the rest will be picked at caucuses this coming weekend, where supporters of the former president tend to dominate.

— David Weigel

How Biden will lean into NATO expansion

Sweden will finally join NATO after Hungary’s parliament approved the country’s accession. The move, along with Finland’s addition last year, cements a significant expansion of the alliance since Russia invaded Ukraine. The news comes almost two years after President Biden hosted the leaders of the Nordic countries at the White House to offer a strong show of support for their membership bids; the process was held up by objections from Hungary and Turkey. His political team is eager to tell that story: A Biden campaign official told Semafor that he will point to NATO’s expansion to underscore arguments that he is strengthening alliances and standing up to Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the reelection campaign attacks Donald Trump for saying he would not defend NATO allies that don’t meet defense spending targets. The Biden campaign is already running a digital ad in key battlegrounds highlighting Trump’s NATO comments.

— Morgan Chalfant

Gallup: Immigration fears surge

As President Biden and Donald Trump prepare dueling border trips, a new Gallup survey finds Americans growing more and more concerned about what they see. Some 28% of respondents named immigration as the most important issue facing the nation, up from 20% just last month. It’s the first time since 2019 the topic has topped the issue rankings in Gallup’s polling. The change is mostly driven by Republicans, with 57% citing immigration as their top concern, up from 37% in January. The poll, which was conducted from Feb. 1-20 as Congress debated and rejected a bipartisan immigration deal, also found 55% of respondents agreed that “large numbers of immigrants entering the United States illegally” constituted a “critical threat” to the country, up 8 points from last year.

New York Democrats get a chance to gerrymander

The biggest congressional news yesterday may have been in Albany, not Washington. The Democratic-controlled state legislature voted down a bipartisan redistricting plan, giving lawmakers the opportunity to redraw the maps themselves and potentially roll back Republican midterm gains that were critical to building the current House majority. “For a party that claims they want to protect democracy and put people over politics, they sure have a funny way of showing it,” Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y. grumbled in the New York Times. How aggressive Democrats get is still an open question — pushing too hard to maximize their advantage could run afoul of New York’s ban on gerrymandering, which prompted the state’s highest court to intervene in 2022 and appoint a special master to decide district lines. Democrats have rejiggered the court with a more favorable lineup since then.

Justices sound doubtful about letting states regulate social media

The Supreme Court spent almost four hours on Monday hearing arguments over whether states should be able to limit how social media companies moderate content. By all accounts, most of the justices sounded quite dubious about laws Florida and Texas passed in 2021 to stop platforms from removing certain posts or users in the wake of the right-wing uproar over tech censorship. Justice Brett Kavanaugh, for instance, emphasized that the First Amendment was only meant to prevent the suppression of speech “by the government,” rather than private companies, while Chief Justice John Roberts fretted about states regulating the “modern town square.” But overall, the justices seemed to struggle with the breadth of the laws, and how their rulings might apply to other services ranging from Gmail to Venmo. Some signaled they might want to send the cases back to the lower courts for more fact-finding — meaning we may have to wait a bit longer for a historic ruling.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer said Israel needed Congress to pass aid for the country “yesterday” as lawmakers struggle with a path forward for the large foreign aid package. “The sooner we get that aid, the better the situation will be. And I don’t want to compare Israel to Ukraine. And the urgency of their needs versus the urgency of our needs. But I can just tell you, we’re very eager,” Dermer said.

Playbook: President Biden is “outwardly playing it cool” when it comes to today’s Michigan primary, but White House and campaign officials “are freaking out about the uncommitted vote,” said a Democrat close to Biden.

Axios: An envelope delivered to Donald Trump Jr.’s home containing a suspicious white powder also included a typed letter containing “eight paragraphs of vile rantings about the Trump family.” (The unidentified substance was not believed to be life-threatening.)

White House

• President Biden and Vice President Harris will host Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries at the White House today at 11:30 a.m. to discuss government funding and Ukraine aid.
• The White House announced that Biden and first lady Jill Biden will host the White House Easter Egg Roll on April 1.
• Harris is hosting voting rights leaders at the White House today.
• Biden tried to address concerns about his age by making fun of Donald Trump’s memory lapses during an appearance on “Late Night With Seth Meyers.”
• The families of American hostages held in Gaza have been invited to the State of the Union on March 7. — Channel 13

Congress

• Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell might endorse Donald Trump. — NYT
• House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green, R-Tenn. is reconsidering his decision to retire. — Punchbowl News
• Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, the ranking Republican on the Finance panel, will likely update GOP senators about the House tax bill over lunch sometime this week. We got that tidbit from fellow Finance panel Republican Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind. who — if you ask us — already sounds like he’s strongly leaning yes on the legislation. “I’m less concerned about having a perfect process and more concerned about just getting this thing done, getting the R&D provisions reauthorized,” the Indiana Republican said.
• House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, R-Texas is threatening to move to hold Secretary of State Antony Blinken in contempt of Congress over what he described as a failure by the department to respond to a subpoena for certain documents in the committee’s Afghanistan investigation.

Economy

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will hold a press conference today in São Paulo before meetings with the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors.

Regulation

The Federal Trade Commission is suing to block a planned merger between Kroger and Albertsons.

Courts

• Donald Trump appealed his $454 million judgment in the New York civil fraud case handed down by Judge Arthur Engoron earlier this month.
• Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg asked the judge overseeing Trump’s prosecution in New York to impose a gag order that prevents the former president from “making or directing others to make” statements about witnesses in the case.
• A federal judge ruled that Alexander Smirnov, the former FBI informant charged with providing the bureau with false information about the Bidens, will remain jailed while awaiting his trial.
• Kenneth Chesebro, a lawyer who helped facilitate Trump’s fake electors plot in 2020, promoted the election subversion scheme using an anonymous Twitter account, despite telling Michigan investigators that he didn’t use Twitter. — CNN

Polls

Congressional approval hit 12% in Gallup’s February poll, the lowest reading since November 2015.

On the Trail

• The Republican National Committee will hold elections to replace outgoing chairwoman Ronna McDaniel and outgoing co-chair Drew McKissick on March 8, during its spring meeting.
• Let the VEEP rumors keep flying: South Dakota GOP Gov. Kristi Noem met with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Monday.
• Trump’s small-donor donations are on the decline compared to his last presidential campaign. — CNBC

National Security

• A Pentagon review found no evidence of “ill intent or an attempt to obfuscate” by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin or his staff in the decision not to share information about his hospitalization with the White House or the public earlier this year. The report was released publicly ahead of Austin’s scheduled appearance before the House Armed Services Committee on Thursday.
• Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said leading advanced semiconductor companies have asked for $70 billion in U.S. funding — double the amount passed through the CHIPS and Science Act for grants to incentivize chip producers to make their products in the U.S.
• The Pentagon struck targets in the Middle East with the help of artificial intelligence. — Bloomberg

Foreign Policy

• The presidents of the Republic of Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of the Marshall Islands wrote to Senate leadership earlier this month to raise concerns about the Congress’ failure to ratify their formal partnership agreements with the U.S., Semafor’s Jay Solomon reports. “Although we understand the delay in the legislation’s approval, it has generated uncertainty among our peoples,” they wrote.
• French President Emmanuel Macron said that sending western troops to defend Ukraine “could not be ruled out.”
• Before the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, talks were underway to secure his release and that of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan from jail in Russia in exchange for Germany releasing a Russian hitman. — Bloomberg
• In a surprise development, Iran reduced its stockpile of nearly weapons-grade nuclear material, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported.

Media

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador defended his move to broadcast a New York Times reporter’s private phone number after she sought comment about allegations that his allies took money from drug cartels.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: A majority of Americans now support building a wall at the southern border, according to polling from Monmouth University.

What the Right isn’t reading: Rep. Andy Kim, D-N.J., who is running for Senate in New Jersey, filed a lawsuit challenging the state’s ballot design.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

February 29 | Washington D.C.

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Gabe Vasquez is a Democratic congressman from New Mexico. He faces a challenge from former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell.