Africa

1. China’s USAID opportunity
2. Risk of ending AFRICOM
3. DRC rules out rebel talks
4. UK’s $50M trade deal
5. The Week Ahead

A Burkina Faso film adaptation of Shakespeare’s Macbeth wins a top prize.

China won’t ‘replace’ USAID

The Trump administration’s decision to freeze billions of dollars in foreign assistance creates an opportunity for China to strengthen its presence in Africa, but Beijing will not step in to replace Washington’s decades-old aid programs.

Most of the near dozen China-Africa analysts who spoke to Semafor said Beijing was set to position itself as a reliable partner in the face of the uncertainty unleashed by the shuttering of programs run by USAID, but would not change its overall approach.

Hannah Ryder, CEO of Development Reimagined, said China “can’t replace USAID” because it does not “give aid.” Beijing has instead committed tens of billions of dollars through both trade and infrastructure project loans in Africa over the last decade. Still, China now has an opportunity to step up with headline-grabbing moves in Africa, as it did by providing vaccines in some African countries early during the COVID-19 pandemic, Eric Olander, the editor of the China Global South Project, said.

Risks of dismantling AFRICOM

Reports that the Trump administration will move to dismantle the US Africa Command (AFRICOM), an American military center that protects US interests on the continent, could create a damaging power vacuum, a former George W. Bush administration official wrote in a Semafor column.

“AFRICOM’s presence has done more than build relationships of trust and partner capacity,” wrote Cameron Hudson, now a senior fellow in the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It has helped keep at bay America’s adversaries and prevented them from securing enduring military partnerships that threaten US strategic interests.”

Reports that US President Donald Trump is considering moving AFRICOM to a subcommand position under European Command could create a “vacuum that could see China establish a long-desired naval presence in the Atlantic or Russia obtain a warm water port to threaten Red Sea trade routes,” Hudson warned.

DRC rules out talks with rebels

DR Congo refused to negotiate with the rebel alliance that has taken control of swaths of the country, sparking fears of a worsening humanitarian crisis. Kinshasa said it would instead seek dialogue directly with Rwanda, which the DRC says funds the M23 militia that leads the rebels, a claim Kigali rejects. The conflict over the mineral-rich eastern DRC has exposed its army’s weakness: Despite decades of fighting experience, it has been incapable of halting the rebels’ advance, hamstrung by rampant corruption, extortion, and abuse. “The army really operates like an armed group,” an expert told The New York Times.

UK agrees $50M African trade deal

The UK’s development finance institution, British International Investment (BII), agreed a $50 million deal with Ghana International Bank (GHIB) to boost trade in seven African countries.

The agreement — which will see GHIB lend to businesses through local banks in Sierra Leone, Liberia, The Gambia, Benin, DR Congo, Rwanda, and Tanzania — aims to expand access to finance in frontier markets where firms lack the backing of global banks due to perceived credit risks, officials from BII and GHIB told Semafor. The new partnership aims to deploy capital for the “biggest impact” by helping local businesses import the commodities and equipment needed to scale their businesses and increase trade, Kwabena Asante-Poku, BII’s country director for Ghana, said. Efforts to increase trade volumes will create jobs and spur economic growth through the “multiplier effect,” GHIB CEO Dean Adansi added.

— Alexis Akwagyiram

The Week Ahead

• Mar. 3-4: Ghana holds a two-day National Economic Dialogue attended by business leaders, think tanks, and civil society groups.
• Mar. 4: South Africa publishes fourth-quarter GDP data.
• Mar. 4: Nigerian writer Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie’s new novel Dream Count is released.
• Mar. 4-6: Africa Energy Indaba — exploring financing solutions, renewables expansion, the role of tech in energy sustainability, and more — takes place in Cape Town.
• Mar. 4-6: Solar Power Africa, a conference for solar energy providers and policymakers, is held in Cape Town.

Business & Macro

🇲🇼 Malawi lowered its growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% from 4%, amid protests spurred by rising inflation caused by foreign exchange shortages.

🇳🇬 The Nigerian Exchange Group, which operates the country’s stock market, reported 157% year-on-year growth in its pre-tax profit for the 12 months ending December 2024. Its 13.6 billion naira ($9 million) profit was a company record.

Climate & Energy

🇰🇪 Kenya designated Olkaria, a geothermal energy hub about 60 miles north of Nairobi, a special economic zone offering tax exemptions to attract investment in renewable energy.

🇳🇬 A 990-kilowatt solar project in Nigeria’s northern state of Niger and funded by the European Union and German government was unveiled to extend electricity to nearly 4,000 households.

Geopolitics & Policy

🇬🇼 West Africa’s economic bloc ECOWAS said Guinea-Bissau’s President Umaro Sissoco Embaló threatened to expel a mission it sent to mediate over a timeline for new presidential elections.

🇳🇦 Namibia’s top court dismissed a petition by opposition groups against the election of Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah as president last year, clearing the way for her to be sworn in on March 21.

Tech & Deals

🌍 The European Investment Bank invested $75 million in a fund by Africa-focused private equity firm Helios Investment Partners to back digital infrastructure and financial services businesses in Africa.

🇰🇪 Kenya’s government is struggling to find buyers for its holdings in two historic hotels — one a Hilton, and the other an InterContinental — BusinessDaily reports.

Katanga: The Dance of the Scorpions, a movie adaptation of Shakespeare’s Macbeth set in Burkina Faso, won the top prize at the Pan-African Film and Television Festival of Ouagadougou on Saturday. The Mooré-language film, directed by Burkinabe filmmaker Dani Kouyaté, has been described as a “powerful, Afro-noir thriller.” It is “a story that plunges viewers into the backstage of power and its plots, juggling between jealousy, hatred, betrayal and paranoia,” RFI wrote. Kouyaté dedicated his award to legendary Malian director Souleymane Cissé who died last month.

US President Donald Trump got elected promising relief for voters’ pocketbooks, but he’s already running into harsh economic reality, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller, Burgess Everett, and Shelby Talcott reported.

“The tariff regimen has to be right, or it’s going to be inflationary,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., who faces a tough 2026 reelection race, warned. Congressional Republicans are still a long way from openly critiquing the president, but the fact there’s any daylight just five weeks in may betray deeper fault lines to come.

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— Alexis Akwagyiram, Preeti Jha, Alexander Onukwue, and Yinka Adegoke.