Net Zero

1. Tariffs and turmoil
2. Whither ‘investable’ climate plans?
3. Top emitters
4. Africa’s driving boom
5. Coal-powered AC

Joe Public is paying Big Tech’s power bills.

Tariffs and turmoil

Tariffs on imports to the US from Mexico and Canada imposed this week by the Trump administration sent shockwaves across the energy market.

The price of oil hit a three-year low on Wednesday, as the US reported a larger-than-expected increase in the volume of oil in storage — a sign of falling demand — at the same time Trump proceeded with 25% tariffs on two countries that are among the most important customers for US oil. The decision by OPEC+ to unwind production cuts next month also weighed the price down.

Prices tipped slightly up on Thursday, but energy companies and consumers — i.e., everyone — are far from being out of the woods. Canadian officials are cranking up their own tariffs on power exports, while the CEO of one of North America’s biggest pipeline companies warned the tariffs will cause all energy prices in the US and Canada to increase, and energy security to weaken. The levies will also cause a jump in the price of building wind farms, since Mexico is the top exporter of wind hardware to the US, according to ING Research.

“There are no more delays or speculation,” said Al Salazar, director at Enverus Intelligence Research. “The retaliation has begun. Should tariffs stick, global economic growth in 2025 will be lower than 2024 and oil demand will suffer.”

Financiers are looking for ‘investable’ climate plans

A growing number of bond investors and banks are pressing nations for increasingly granular versions of existing energy-transition plans, part of efforts to better price — and bet on — countries’ efforts to navigate climate change.

Their calls come with barely any countries having met last month’s deadline to submit updates to their “nationally determined contributions,” or NDCs, a requirement of the Paris Agreement whereby governments outline their targeted reductions in carbon emissions. Money managers, bankers, and analysts argue that even those overarching plans are insufficient, and that governments need to offer more details of interim targets, policy revisions, and spending programs aimed at reaching their goals in order to court investors. They are coalescing around calls for “investable NDCs.”

“It’s moving beyond simply stating emissions targets and actually starting to set out how those targets will be delivered… as a kind of forward guidance on the direction of climate policy,” Thomas Dillon, head of sovereign ESG at Aviva Investors, which has more than $300 billion in assets under management across bonds, stocks, and other assets.

Aviva held discussions with more than 50 national governments in 2024 alone about the issue, Dillon said, and plans to push that engagement further in the coming year: Perversely, countries missing the UN’s deadline last month means Aviva and other bondholders have more time to make their point. “The window for us getting that message across is still open.”

Cutting-edge innovations in carbon capture technology, green hydrogen production, and next-gen aircraft are revolutionizing the energy landscape. As these technologies advance, what are the biggest hurdles making them commercially viable? Hosted on the sidelines of CERAWeek in Houston, Semafor’s Climate & Energy Editor Tim McDonnell will lead news-making conversations with industry leaders including John Ketchum, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy, Inc.; Jeff Gustavson, Vice President, Lower Carbon Energies, Chevron Corporation; and more, on the latest breakthroughs, challenges, and the policy shifts.

March 10, 2025 | Houston, TX | RSVP

Top emitters

More than half of the world’s carbon emissions are produced by just 36 companies, including Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil, and Shell, according to analysis by InfluenceMap.

State-owned oil and gas producers top the list by a wide margin, especially those in China; 23% of global fossil fuel and cement CO₂ emissions in 2023 were produced by Chinese companies. Western investor-owned oil majors like Exxon and Shell were each responsible for around 1% of emissions. Although energy companies typically deflect individual responsibility — ultimately, they only produce what their customers ask them to — that argument is being increasingly challenged in court. Individual corporate emissions tracking is also the cornerstone of carbon-based trade tariffs being implemented in Europe and elsewhere, so the differentiation is more financially meaningful than ever.

Africa’s driving boom

Projected rate of vehicle ownership per 1,000 people in African countries by 2050, double the current rate. Africa’s “motorization,” currently among the lowest in the world, is now among the fastest-growing. But most purchases are of low-cost used cars imported from overseas, so more drivers means worse air quality and a greater reliance on unaffordable fuel imports, a report from the think tank Energy for Growth Hub argues. There’s a major opportunity to push a greater share of vehicle adoption into EVs, but it will only happen if financial institutions get more creative about payment options and governments invest more in EV infrastructure, the report argues.

Coal-powered AC

Air conditioning needs driven by extreme weather in India, China, and the US last summer contributed toward a surge in coal generation to meet increased electricity demand, an Ember report found.

The research appears to confirm a vicious cycle that scientists have long warned about: Cooling accounted for all of the US’ year-on-year electricity demand growth in June, a third of which was supplied by coal and gas. Relying on fossil fuels in this way is a “losing strategy,” Kostantsa Rangelova, a global energy analyst at Ember told Semafor, “because it exacerbates the pressure from heatwaves, it makes [them] even more frequent, more severe.”

Scaling up rooftop solar and the sale of more efficient conditioners is part of the solution, the report argues. But low-income households — already disproportionately affected by extreme heat — often face “numerous obstacles” to installing panels, from cash constraints to landlords’ objections, said Sheila Foster, a climate professor at Columbia University.

New Energy

• China said it would develop new offshore wind farms and accelerate the construction of “new energy bases” across desert areas, while continuing to increase coal production and supply this year.
• The US Environmental Protection Agency unfroze a $7 billion grant program for solar energy following a review of Biden-era climate spending.

Fossil Fuels

• US President Donald Trump told Congress he believes Japan and South Korea are among the countries willing to contribute “trillions of dollars each” to a new natural gas pipeline in Alaska.
• Ukraine will ramp up natural gas imports next season due to the damage caused to its production capacity by Russian attacks.
• Saudi oil giant Aramco will slash its dividend payout this year after net income dropped 12% due to falling energy prices.

Finance

• The US is reportedly withdrawing from the Just Energy Transition Partnership, a collaboration between richer nations to help developing countries transition to cleaner energy.

Politics & Policy

• Europe’s defense spending hikes are pulling billions of dollars away from climate finance initiatives, a further blow to developing countries after the Trump administration cut USAID.

Personnel

• Former BP chief executive Bernard Looney has been appointed chairman of a sustainability-focused AI startup, a year and a half after he was dismissed from the oil giant over “serious misconduct.”

COP30

• COP30 President-Designate Andre Aranha Correa do Lago said he would push for multilateralism and respect for science, in an apparent rejoinder to the US’ retreat from climate action.

Ari Peskoe, director of the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard University. His new paper explores “how the public is paying the energy bills of some of the largest companies in the world.”

Palantir is targeting the global financial services industry as the next big market for its AI tools, reported Semafor’s Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson.

“We’re at the very beginning of what will be a pretty seismic shift when artificial intelligence truly runs a lot of systems,” one executive heading up the push told Semafor. From fraud prevention to the processing of legal documentation, Palantir told analysts on its earnings call last month it viewed AI as a means to “the self-driving company.”