Gulf

1. Wage stagnation in Dubai
2. Sticky government jobs
3. Consultant woes in Saudi
4. Sudan sues UAE
5. Private equity slump
6. Chinese car surge

Dubai’s parking fines goldmine.

Dubai expats face reality check

Dubai’s once-idyllic expat lifestyle has become unattainable for many as costs rise and salaries stagnate. An influx of more than 400,000 expats since the pandemic has made the labor market more competitive, dragging down salaries and benefits even for top jobs, according to Bloomberg. Employers don’t expect to offer UAE workers a pay bump this year.

Rents for villas have nearly doubled, while apartment prices have risen 66%, according to real estate consultancy JLL, forcing many to consider commuting from neighboring Sharjah or even Ras Al Khaimah, 120 kilometers away. Dubai is now the Middle East’s most expensive city for international employees, ranking 15th globally, according to consultancy Mercer.

The dream, however, is still alive for the rich. Around 800 millionaires left Britain for the UAE last year, drawn by low taxes and luxury lifestyles, while significant numbers of wealthy Germans are also considering the move. Real estate developers are struggling to meet demand for high-end homes, with $100 million listings on the rise.

The allure of government jobs

The percentage of the Gulf domestic workforce that holds government jobs. Despite regulations and incentives to boost private sector employment, cushier public roles remain the top choice. Governments are ramping up efforts to change this. Riyadh plans to increase Saudization across hundreds of professions — starting July 2025, 45% of workers in dentistry and 40% in accounting must be Saudi. The kingdom also launched a $3.4 billion “Golden Handshake” program, offering cash incentives to encourage government workers to resign and transition into the private sector.

Analysis: PwC’s Saudi ban is a warning sign

Lower oil prices, localization, and the rise of a highly trained Saudi professional class may signal the end of boom times for foreign consultancies, Wael Mahdi, a long-time former energy and business correspondent, writes in a Semafor column.

A reported temporary ban on PwC working for the Public Investment Fund — still unconfirmed and unexplained by either the firm or the sovereign wealth fund — “has reignited debates about the dominance of foreign consultancies,” Mahdi wrote. Many Saudis are “expressing frustration over what they see as a monopoly by these firms, arguing that such dominance stifles the development of local expertise and opportunities.”

Sudan launches UAE case

Sudan launched a legal case against the United Arab Emirates, blaming the Gulf nation for arming the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in the country’s civil war. The case, filed to the International Court of Justice, claims the UAE armed the group responsible for ethnic-based attacks in Darfur that the US said amounted to genocide. The lawsuit underscores how the conflict has become a proxy war, and that Gulf nations “view the conflict as an opportunity to cement their hegemonic status in the Middle East,” an expert wrote in 2023. The war has led to the gravest displacement crisis in the world, and prompted the first global declaration of famine in decades. The UAE is seeking the “immediate dismissal” of the case.

A rare setback for private equity

Private equity deals in the Middle East and Africa fell to a three-year low in 2024, reflecting a global slowdown in the asset class. Tighter credit conditions and valuation mismatches hampered the execution of deals, according to a report by data analytics firm Magnitt. While the UAE has historically led the region in deal activity, Saudi Arabia has taken the top spot over the past two years and is expected to expand its lead further as it ramps up local investments to diversify its economy.

Globally, private equity assets under management declined in 2024 for the first time since Bain & Co. began tracking the asset class in 2005, and the consultancy expects continued pressure for up to four years. In this region, Magnitt predicts a rebound in 2025, driven by sovereign wealth funds — led by Saudi’s Public Investment Fund and Abu Dhabi’s ADQ.

Chinese cars win Ramadan deals

Ramadan is prime time for car deals, and this year Chinese automakers are set to dominate. While US, Japanese, and European brands have long ruled the Gulf market, lower-cost, high-tech options from BYD, Geely, Haval, and Jetour are gaining ground. Chinese brands’ regional market share doubled to nearly 7% in 2024 and is rising fast, according to the Middle East Automotive Council. Jetour — known for its boxy Land Rover lookalike — and other brands are attracting buyers with zero-percent financing on models that already undercut competitors on price. Concerns over resale value are also fading, with inquiries for used cars rising 77% between the third and fourth quarters of 2024.

Deals

• A Doha-based fund, JTA Investment, is considering a $1 billion bet on Vietnam’s electric vehicle maker VinFast. The potential deal may also extend to a VinFast sister company that focuses on hospitality. — The New Arab

Finance

• The UAE’s biggest bank has reorganized its operations to improve returns and better compete in the region. First Abu Dhabi Bank will be divided into four major business lines: investment banking and markets, wholesale banking, personal wealth and business banking, and international banking. — Bloomberg

Diplomacy

• The UAE and the Central African Republic signed a trade deal, cutting nearly all tariffs on goods. Officials expect trade to hit $1 billion within seven years, with investments flowing into telecommunications, hospitality, logistics, and fintech. The deal aims to boost trade in aluminum, ceramics, iron, silver, and gold.

Regulations

• Oman plans to set up a commercial and investment court to resolve business disputes in a bid to attract foreign investment. The country pulled in almost $70 billion of FDI in the five years to September 2024, an increase of 17.6%. — AGBI

The best part of running a toll road or parking lot? Collecting fines. Dubai’s publicly listed operators are making a fortune from penalties. In 2024, Salik saw fine revenue jump 15% to 62 million dirhams ($17 million), while Parkin, the city’s parking monopoly, raked in 249 million dirhams — up a third from the previous year. Parkin expects its fleet of 25 enforcement vehicles to drive fines up another 25% this year, bringing violations close to half of its total projected revenue for 2025.

The final frontier in privatization could be traffic violations. Dubai’s new traffic cameras can detect — and fine — drivers for not wearing seatbelts and phone use, even through tinted windows. Those penalties go directly to the government now, but investors would be eager for a share of that revenue stream.

Even cryptocurrency backers haven’t fully bought into US President Donald Trump’s “strategic reserve” plan, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller reported.

“I don’t mind the concept. I just don’t know what utility it serves,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., told Semafor. Though Trump’s announcement exposes it to criticism, the crypto industry maintains strong bipartisan backing in congress, and is well within reach of fulfilling its legislative wishlist.