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In this edition: Biden picks his battles, the crypto industry takes a California victory lap, and th͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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March 8, 2024
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Americana

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David Weigel

From the White House to the statehouse, Democrats’ anti-MAGA message snaps into focus

REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

THE SCENE

Tuesday’s primary guaranteed a Trump-Biden rematch. Thursday night’s State of the Union showed how the current president would fight it — more liberal populism, more contempt for the MAGA movement, and a strategic retreat on immigration.

“Not since President Lincoln and the Civil War have freedom and democracy been under assault at home as they are today,” Biden said, connecting Trump’s 2020 election denial to his refusal to commit to defending NATO allies from Russia.

On policy, Biden again attacked Republicans for blocking a border security bill, looking to neutralize one of their best-polling issues. And he repeatedly accused them of trying to roll back middle class benefits to free up cash for wealthy Americans’ priorities.

“You guys don’t want another $2 trillion tax cut?” President Joe Biden said, baiting the Republican side of the room by saying that the party wanted to keep tax cuts for the rich and inflate the deficit. “I kind of thought that’s what your plan was.”

DAVID’S VIEW

An election-year State of the Union is always a campaign speech, whether or not D.C. tastemakers and norms-lovers like it. Biden delivered his after a GOP primary that had been wrapped up with record speed, and Super Tuesday primaries that had, with very few exceptions, advanced the most pro-Trump, pro-MAGA candidates available to voters. The newest crop of Republican nominees gave Democrats confidence his message would translate up and down the ballot come November.

In North Carolina, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson easily won the party’s gubernatorial nomination, and giddy Democrats cracked open their file of his bizarre and alienating speeches. In Texas, judges and state legislators who’d crossed Attorney Gen. Ken Paxton lost most of their races — often after former President Donald Trump endorsed their opponents, a favor for an ally who’d tried to overturn the 2020 election and survived an impeachment over corruption accusations last year.

“They are the extreme of the extreme,” said Abhi Rahman, a spokesman for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which believes that MAGA candidates can help Democrats flip more seats and reduce GOP supermajorities in the states. “They’re eating the people who were the extremists.”

The emerging Democratic strategy is two-fold. One: They need to counteract “Trump amnesia,” the catchall term for voters forgetting aspects of his presidency that they hated in real time. The top of Biden’s remarks, invoking the Jan. 6 riots and how Republicans had memory-holed them, was part of that.

Outside of California’s central valley, where the House GOP’s super PAC spent money to help Rep. David Valadao beat a challenger who attacked his vote for Trump’s post-Jan. 6 impeachment, the party was nominating MAGA candidates who kept insisting that the 2020 election was stolen. As Trump locked up the nomination this week, Arizona U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake was picking up support from GOP leaders, ensuring that the swing state’s Republican ticket would be led by two candidates who’d lost it.

“They just don’t really align with the voters of Arizona,” said Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego, who got a break in his race against Lake this week when independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema opted not to run again. “She scared the hell out of people last cycle, and she has not gotten any better. Look at how she’s treated the McCain family, or how she just treated Nikki Haley on her way out.”

The second part of the strategy looks forward — a people-versus-the-powerful message, portraying Trump as a catspaw for right-wing economic interests.

“I wish there was more coverage of the Trump record of tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy,” said North Carolina Rep. Wiley Nickel, a Democrat leaving the House this year after Republicans re-drew the state’s map and made his seat unwinnable. “That’s their record. If Republicans have unified government, Social Security and Medicare will be on the chopping block.”

Biden worked that angle on Thursday, repeatedly, calling out United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain in the gallery and highlighting the GOP’s least popular economic policies. As Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reports, the campaign is increasingly focusing on Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s compendium of policy and personnel advice for the next Republican president. Hillary Clinton’s unsuccessful 2016 campaign separated Trump from the rest of the GOP, citing then-House Speaker Paul Ryan as a character witness. Biden is binding them together.

THE VIEW FROM REPUBLICANS

The GOP rebuttal started with in-house heckling, and continued with Alabama Sen. Katie Britt, whose official response mostly got panned on style. It was far heavier on immigration than economics, with mentions of high prices but no reference to tax rates. “His reckless spending dug our economy into a hole and sent the cost of living through the roof,” said Britt, blaming Biden for “soaring mortgage rates and sky-high childcare costs.”

NOTABLE

  • In The Washington Post, Paul Kane runs down the Tuesday primaries that shrunk the “bloc of House Republicans who prefer governance over political performance art.”
  • In Politico, Paul Demko, Jeremy B. White, and Jason Beeferman recap the week’s progressive candidate and policy defeats, which also showed what ground Democrats were giving up.
  • In Vanity Fair, Joe Hagan blows “Taps” for the Haley campaign and the GOP primary, “it was unclear what Haley intended to do with any ostensible movement, how she might translate it into political capital after the primaries.”
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State of Play

Hawaii. The “uncommitted” protest campaign put up its best numbers yet in Wednesday’s caucuses, grabbing 29% of the vote and seven of 22 available delegates. As in Michigan and Minnesota, a campaign to maximize the non-Biden vote and send a message about Gaza came together quickly. Democratic rules start assigning delegates to any candidate or ballot option that gets 15% of the vote, statewide and in congressional districts. “Uncommitted” now has 20 delegates — 11 in Minnesota, two in Michigan — of the 1,634 assigned in primaries so far.

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Ads
Make America Great Again, Inc.

Make America Great Again, Inc., “Jugular.” On Feb. 16, the president made short remarks on the death of Alexei Nalvany, pausing awkwardly after he quoted Trump’s riff that Russia could do “whatever the hell” it wanted if NATO members didn’t contribute more to their defense. “I guess I should clear my mind here a little bit and not say what I’m really thinking,” he said. That quote makes up a third of the Trump super PAC’s ad, which got plenty of earned media by running on cable before the State of the Union. Minutes into his speech, Biden attacked Trump over the same quote.

Tammy Baldwin for Senate, “American Jobs.” The first ad from Wisconsin’s Democratic senator centers on the Made America Act, both its content (requiring American-made steel for infrastructure projects) and its bipartisan support: “She got President Trump to sign her Made in America bill, and then she got President Biden to make it permanent.”

Reproductive Freedom for All Freedom Fund, “Senate IVF Response.” The abortion rights group formerly known as NARAL is running this ad in six swing House seats, recapping the days since the Alabama Supreme Court halted IVF treatments in the state by ruling that a frozen embryo had a right to life. The GOP’s objection to Senate Democrats’ IVF carve-out bill means “they’re coming after IVF.”

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Polls

On Tuesday, 19% of Minnesota Democrats picked “uncommitted” over Biden, and 29% of Republicans picked Haley over Trump. Right now, the Haley voters are less interested in party unity. Nineteen percent of Republicans who weren’t supporting Trump in the primary say they support Biden, while just 6% of Democrats who didn’t support Biden say they’re now supporting Trump. Between a quarter and a fifth of voters who rejected the likely nominees say they support another, unnamed candidate, but no other names were tested, in a state where it’s relatively easy for third parties to get ballot access.

The fight for Bob Menendez’s Senate seat hasn’t had much to do with Menendez himself. He has until March 25 to file for the seat, which he hasn’t done yet; he hasn’t competed in the roughhouse county convention fights between First Lady Tammy Murphy and Rep. Andy Kim. The larger context is that New Jersey Democrats want him to go away. Seventy-five percent of all New Jersey adults believe that the senator’s probably guilty of the corruption he’s charged with, including 74% of Democrats; fifty-nine percent of Democrats want him to resign. The last time the senator faced legal trouble, Gov. Chris Christie would have been allowed to pick his replacement. With party control no longer an issue, partisan support for Menendez has imploded.

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On the Trail
Reuters/Elizabeth Frantz

White House. For both major parties, the biggest surprise on Thursday was Joe Biden responding to Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene as he called on Congress to tighten border security.

“I’d be a winner…not really,” said Biden, stumbling over the prepared line “it’d be a winner for America.” Greene shouted “Laken Riley,” the name of a 22-year old nursing student whose alleged killer entered the United States illegally in 2022. Biden slowly reached for one of the LAKEN RILEY buttons that Greene and other House conservatives wore to the speech.

“Lincoln – Lincoln Riley, an innocent young woman who was killed by an illegal,” said Biden, tripping over the victim’s unfamiliar name. “That’s right. But how many thousands of people have been killed by legals?” He looked up at the public gallery, where Riley’s parents weren’t sitting — they had passed on an invitation offered by another House conservatives. “To her parents, I say, my heart goes out to you, having lost children myself. I understand.”

Biden was quickly rebuked by multiple Latino members of Congress, for using language — “illegal” — that had been banished from the party’s lexicon. “He should have said ‘undocumented,’” Rep. Nancy Pelosi told CNN, “but it’s not a big thing, okay?”

Senate. California Rep. Katie Porter ran third in California’s top-two primary on Tuesday, then angered fellow Democrats with a word they stopped using after 2020 — “rig.” In social media posts on Wednesday, Porter attributed her loss to “an onslaught of billionaires spending millions to rig this election.” On Thursday, she explained that “rigged” meant “manipulated by dishonest means,” referring to super PACs that ran ads against her, one of them funded by the crypto industry.

“Thank you, Katie Porter, for giving Fairshake credit for your loss,” a spokeswoman for the PAC told the New York Times. Rep. Adam Schiff, who got his preferred match-up with Republican former baseball player Steve Garvey, told Fox 11 that Porter had never called to concede the race.

House. Former New York Rep. George Santos filed to run against one of the Republicans who ousted him last year, making it official while he watched the State of the Union from inside the House chamber. (Being expelled by his colleagues did not end his lifetime floor privileges.) “I look forward to debating him on the issues and on his weak record as a Republican,” he said of Rep. Nick LaLota, who represents the Suffolk County-based 1st Congressional District. In a statement, LaLota said he’d “led the charge” to remove Santos and would happily beat him again; his district is significantly more Republican-leaning than the seat Santos flipped in 2022.

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Q&A
REUTERS/Brian Snyder

On Wednesday morning, as Nikki Haley ended her presidential campaign, Robert Schwartz was racing the clock. He’d stayed up late calculating how many votes Haley had won on super Tuesday; his super PAC, Primary Pivot, was about to relaunch as Haley Voters for Biden. He barely had time to finish the announcement. “It was a much shorter speech than I anticipated,” Schwartz told Americana. But he had his new mission — instead of convincing Democrats to temporarily become pro-Haley Republicans, he’d be urging hundreds of thousands of swing state Haley supporters to vote for the president. This is an edited transcript of the conversation.

Americana: What did you make of Haley’s speech, ending her campaign? Was it helpful?

Robert Schwartz: We’re pleased that she followed this through to Super Tuesday, despite the writing on the wall. She exposed some real fissures in the Republican Party. In our communication with Haley voters, across the political spectrum, there was a deep kind of anger and resentment towards the way Trump and MAGA treated them.

Nikki Haley is probably, eventually, going to endorse Trump. But as we saw from the statistics coming out of Iowa, and South Carolina, and even North Carolina, just because Nikki Haley will eventually support Donald Trump, that doesn’t mean her supporters will go with her. This is an effort, from people who supported Nikki Haley, to guide as many of them as possible toward the candidate that respects democracy — even if they may disagree with him politically.

Americana: What makes you think she’ll eventually endorse Trump?

Robert Schwartz: She didn’t talk about Biden winning over her voters. She talked about how she’s always been a Republican, and how it’s the job of Donald Trump to win over her voters. I think that indicates where her loyalty lies. She started by talking about the threat of socialism, which sounds like she’ll eventually attack Joe Biden and the Democrats for being socialists. When she says, “we’ve got a country to save,” she’s not necessarily talking about saving our democracy. She’s talking about saving our country from the path that it’s currently on. If she wants to be in the conversation in 2028, ultimately, it’s good for her to be seen as a loyal Republican. But we’d love it if she doesn’t endorse him.

Americana: What resources are you starting this effort with, in terms of mailing lists, money — basic campaign tools?

Robert Schwartz: We started Primary Pivot with no money, but of the original $1 million that we raised, we have a significant amount that was set aside for Georgia, if she stayed in. We can spend that elsewhere. We’d reached out to voters in nine different states and sent 2.1 million mailers and text messages to over 1.1 million unique individuals, many in Michigan, North Carolina, and Georgia. We’ve already been aggressively reaching out to these people. We bought voter files in all of these states, and we focused on people who had voted in a previous Democratic primary. If they ended up voting in the Republican primary, they almost definitely voted for Nikki Haley.

Americana: How do you communicate with them for the next eight months?

Robert Schwartz: We really see three groups of voters. The first group is Biden supporters who pulled a Republican ballot. We can reconfirm their support, but they should be Biden supporters in November anyway — we don’t need to aggressively recruit them. The second group of voters that we targeted was the Biden skeptics, the ones that thought he was too old, the ones in New Hampshire that were considering Dean Phillips. Those are people we and the Biden campaign will have to aggressively court.

The third group of voters, which is going to be the most important and the most difficult to reach, is conservative, Republican Haley supporters. We call them the genuine Haley supporters. Many of those people have not previously voted in the Democratic primary. We are going to hyper focus on them, and we have a number of Republicans and former Republicans on our staff that will kind of flip our message away from “you may disagree with Nikki Haley on abortion or climate, but at least she respects democracy…” to “you may disagree with Joe Biden on abortion and climate change, but at least he respects democracy.” We’ll emphasize the foreign policy issues that Biden and Haley agree on.

Americana: Did Haley herself do enough to win over these anti-Trump, pro-democracy voters? I met some people who were tempted to support her, but stopped themselves, because she said she’d pardon Trump.

Robert Schwartz: If Nikki Haley had gone the full Chris Christie route, or the full Liz Cheney route, which was where many Democrats wanted her to go, I think the results would have been obvious. We wanted Nikki Haley to win the nomination, not just make a point. So, we felt that she strategically navigated those issues in a way that allowed her to not tank her support among conservative voters, who are now going to be essential in building a broad Biden coalition. I do think there are questions as to whether her campaign would have survived as long as it did without our efforts to bring in independent and left-of-center voters.

Americana: What did you make of the Biden campaign’s reaction to her leaving the race?

Robert Schwartz: It was a great first step. There have been all these outreach efforts by the Biden campaign to reach these uncommitted voters in Michigan. There were about 100,000 uncommitted voters in Michigan — but there were 300,000 Haley voters. Those uncommitted voters don’t have anywhere else to go, except to stay home and throw the election to somebody they absolutely despise. Haley voters are incredibly important in places like Michigan, and North Carolina, and Georgia and the Biden campaign should be aggressively courting them, and we expect they will be doing the same type of voter outreach that we are, but with a different message.

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Next
  • four days until presidential primaries in Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington
  • 11 days until presidential primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Kansas, and all primaries in Illinois and Ohio
  • 17 days until the start of Trump’s trial in New York
  • 248 days until the 2024 presidential election
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