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Chinese workers across Africa, Kenya’s digital lenders, Gbagbo comes back, and a Nigerian city’s hid͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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March 12, 2024
semafor

Africa

Africa
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Alexis Akwagyiram
Alexis Akwagyiram

Hello! Welcome to Semafor Africa, where we know cliches are sometimes true. A case in point is the often recited fact that Africa is the world’s youngest continent. It’s a truism and demographers point out that African populations are growing rapidly whereas people in wealthy nations are having far fewer babies, leaving them with aging populations. In sub-Saharan Africa, the fertility rate — the number of children an average woman is expected to have — is 4.6, compared with 1.5 in the European Union. Demographers say a rate of 2.1 is required for a country to hold its population steady without the addition of migrants. But less is often said about how that imbalance is already playing out on the continent and elsewhere in the world.

For this edition’s main story, I looked into newly released figures from the British government on the recipients of visas to work in the country’s care system. It’s clear that the U.K. has a rapidly growing population of elderly people who are living for longer and need to be cared for. The pandemic crystalized this. Nearly 20,000 care home residents in England died with COVID-19 between March 2 and June 12, 2020, according to rights group Amnesty International which described a “complete breakdown” of the care system in the first weeks of Britain’s pandemic response. The pandemic prompted the policy change that led to a sharp rise in Africans taking care work in Britain.

The figures also show the way in which Africans are woven into the fabric of global politics. Brexit compounded the systemic weaknesses exposed by the pandemic because Britain was unable to turn to Europeans who previously could settle and work in the U.K. without a visa. As Africans become a bigger part of the global workforce, it makes sense that policy decisions elsewhere in the world will create opportunities for work. If demography is destiny, as the saying goes, this tells us a lot about the years to come.

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Stat

The number of digital lenders licensed by Kenya’s central bank. The apex bank disclosed that it had licensed 19 more lenders in the latest round of issuances, nearly two years after it began the mandatory registration of digital credit providers in line with new laws regulating the sector. It also said the number of new license applicants had risen to 480. Hundreds of unregulated mobile lending apps have sprung up in recent years, many of which have been accused of unethical practices including the abuse of user data and high interest rates on loans.

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Alexis Akwagyiram

Africans have become the solution to the UK’s elderly care crisis

10'000 Hours via Getty Images

THE NEWS

The number of Africans entering Britain as care workers nearly trebled over the last year after visa rules were changed to tackle staff shortages exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic and Brexit. It highlights the West’s growing reliance on migrants from the world’s youngest continent to care for its aging populations.

Africans now make up the majority of foreigners given the right to work in Britain’s care system. Some 57,000 Africans entered the country on a Health and Care visa in 2023 — up from just over 20,000 in 2022 and more than half of the approximately 106,000 granted the right to travel to Britain for that work, Semafor Africa’s analysis of Home Office data shows.

Britain’s government in December 2021 added care staff to a list of occupations for which visas would be granted to address a shortage of workers which rose sharply during the pandemic.

The U.K.’s health ministry said it was acting on recommendations made by the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), an independent body that advises the government. The MAC, in its 2021 annual report, also said restrictions for care workers needed to be eased due to the impact of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. “The ending of free movement and the absence of a work route for care workers is likely to contribute to the recruitment problems faced by the sector,” the body warned.

ALEXIS’ VIEW

The sharp increase in the number of Africans working in Britain’s care sector illustrates a clear demographic trend — the world’s fastest growing continent will increasingly make up the shortfall of workers in Western countries. That makes sense for a continent that is expected to make up a quarter of the world’s population by 2050.

“We’re seeing absolute declines in the number of working age people in rich countries that we haven’t seen since the Black Death [of the 1300s],” Charles Kenny, an economist and senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Global Development think tank, told me. He said that will create “a massive demand for workers from somewhere, and for Europe the obvious place is Africa.”

The care visa trend highlights the extreme contrast between the youthfulness of African nations and the aging populations of advanced economies in the northern hemisphere. That gulf was crystalized during the pandemic.

Beyond the demographic advantage, the rapid rise of African caregivers into the U.K. highlights two other trends. The first is that the increased cost of living and lack of jobs seen in several African countries is forcing young people to seek opportunities beyond the continent, where the pay is relatively high. The fact that care work doesn’t require a higher level of education or special skills opens up care work to those who aren’t qualified medics, for example. Even qualified nurses are leaving their home countries to take care jobs.

The second trend to bear in mind is that African workers will continue to fill worker shortages in the aging workforces of the West — but, without vast improvements in education systems, it will continue to be in roles that are poorly paid. Advances in technology like AI will reduce the need for foreign workers in skilled jobs, leaving only opportunities for work — like caring for the elderly — that literally requires a human touch.

Could a new rule increase the exploitation of African carers in the U.K.? →

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Evidence

The number of Chinese workers in Africa dropped to a new low in 2022, continuing an annual decline since a peak of nearly 264,000 workers in 2015. Algeria and Angola have had by far the highest number of Chinese workers in Africa, each with over 400,000 in total between 2009 and 2022, according to the China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins. Chinese workers in Africa include those who work on construction projects by Chinese contractors, and those who leave China to work for local companies. Their populations rose in the years up to 2015 as the gross revenues of Chinese companies in Africa increased but also began to decline in line with “a reduction of overall Chinese economic activity on the continent,” according to an IMF working paper.

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Need to Know
Courtesy: Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala/ Committee to Protect Journalists

🇨🇩 Congolese journalist Stanis Bujakera faces 20 years in prison following the publication of a story on the circumstances of the death of a former transport minister. Bujakera’s lawyers said on Friday that a prosecutor had asked a court in the capital Kinshasa to sentence and penalize him one million Congolese francs ($364). The story was published by French news magazine Jeune Afrique, which denied Bujakera was the author. Bujakera denies all charges.

🇬🇦 The Economic Community of Central African States agreed to lift sanctions on Gabon and reinstate its membership, the country’s foreign minister said on Saturday. The regional bloc suspended Gabon following the Aug. 30 coup that ousted President Ali Bongo. The bloc did not immediately announce the lifting of sanctions but it was confirmed by Burundi’s foreign minister on social media platform X.

🇨🇮 Côte d’Ivoire’s former President Laurent Gbagbo is set to run in next year’s presidential election, his African People’s Party – Côte d’Ivoire (PPA-CI), said on Saturday. Gbagbo, 78, was acquitted by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity committed in 2010 following his refusal to concede an election defeat.

🇪🇹 Ethiopia is mulling scrapping its recognition of Somaliland amid growing pressure from the international community, Bloomberg reports. Ethiopia in January said it was set to recognize the semi-autonomous territory officially considered part of Somalia in a deal that would provide access to the region’s Berbera port and Red Sea Coast. Somalia has opposed the deal, as have Turkey, China, Egypt and the U.S.

🇳🇬 Nigeria paused its plan to impose a levy on companies employing expatriate workers. The interior ministry said the plan, which would charge businesses $15,000 for an expat director, was paused for “dialogue among stakeholders”. Local business groups and trade unions had criticized the levy for being potentially punitive.

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Outro
Samuel Alabi/AFP via Getty Images

A recent archeological study has uncovered evidence of over 1,000 years of human occupation in Nigeria’s western city of Ilorin before the 1800s, and its connections to other Yoruba communities. Bolaji Owosen, a research fellow at the University of Cambridge, focused on broken pieces of ceramic materials known as potsherds for her study. She used radiocarbon dates and potsherds analysis to produce information on a period from the mid-sixth to the 16th century. Owosen argues in The Conversation that Ilorin was more developed than previously believed in that roughly 1,000-year period.

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Hot on Semafor
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