• D.C.
  • BXL
  • Lagos
  • Dubai
  • Beijing
  • SG
rotating globe
  • D.C.
  • BXL
  • Lagos
Semafor Logo
  • Dubai
  • Beijing
  • SG


In this edition: Democrats making peace with the “uncommitted” campaign, the age-joke phase of the B͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
sunny Phoenix
sunny Washington, D.C.
sunny Tallahassee
rotating globe
March 12, 2024
semafor

Americana

Americana
Sign up for our free newsletters
 
David Weigel

Democrats are giving ‘uncommitted’ pro-ceasefire voters some space

REUTERS/Rebecca Cook

THE NEWS

In a few hours, Joe Biden will cross the 1,968-delegate threshold he needs to claim the Democratic nomination. The 2024 primary, the shortest in decades, will be over.

Sort of.

In Washington, where Democrats can mark “uncommitted” on their ballots instead of Biden, a coalition of pro-Gaza ceasefire politicians and labor unions are trying to maximize the protest vote.

Next week, they’ll try again in Kansas. Next month, they’ll do it in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin — all states where “uncommitted” efforts have come together quickly, inspired by campaigns in Michigan, Minnesota, and Hawaii that have denied Biden 20 delegates so far.

“We’re focused on ensuring that President Biden and his campaign listen to us,” said Rami Al-Kabra, the 47-year-old deputy mayor of Bothell, a city in Seattle’s suburbs. “What happens in November? Hopefully we will not be having the same conversation again.”

The activists organizing “uncommitted” votes don’t expect to defeat Biden, or even carry a state; they did best last week in Hawaii, where an ad hoc coalition of progressives and pro-Palestinian groups won 29% of the vote in a low-turnout caucus. They agree on some demands — a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, an end to military aid to Israel without human rights conditions — and don’t fight about the others.

So far, they’re also meeting little resistance from the Biden campaign or state Democratic parties. After a brief frenzy in Michigan, where Biden surrogates barnstormed the state to turn out more votes for the president, Democrats are taking a light touch.

Al-Kabra got involved in the “uncommitted” campaign after he learned that a friend had thrown out his mail ballot instead of casting a protest vote. He and local Democratic leaders agreed: Keeping voters active, even if they’re temporarily undermining the president, was preferable to watching them drift away and sit out the November election.

“We welcome the discussion,” said Shasti Conrad, the chair of the Washington State Democrats. “We want people to feel as though this party is a space that they can participate in, where they can hold opinions that are different than the majority. That’s why we’re not a cult. That’s why we’re different than the Republican Party.”

KNOW MORE

Not every state allows primary voters to cast a recordable protest vote. The option doesn’t exist in today’s other major primaries, in Mississippi and Georgia — which are likely to push Biden over the delegate threshold before polls close in Washington.

But in every place that offers the option, there’s an “uncommitted” campaign underway, inspired by and often in contact with the national organizers who kicked things off in Michigan.

“These are mostly low-budget, grassroots efforts around the country of Democrats expressing that Biden has a real moral and electoral problem on his hands due to his funding of Israel’s atrocities in Gaza,” said Waleed Shahid, an organizer and spokesman for the effort. “Whether it’s through protests or voting uncommitted, democratic expressions of discontent will continue as long as Biden’s policies remain the same and jeopardize his chances of defeating [Donald] Trump in November.”

From state to state, the effort has come together in similar ways; conversations between frustrated activists, then some organizing, on the smallest budgets possible. A “Listen to Wisconsin” campaign was launched this month, taking its messaging and inspiration from Michigan, using the same tactics to support the state’s “uninstructed delegates” option.

“We have red lines related to funding governments and supplying weapons when it relates to mass destruction and genocide,” said Omar Daoud, 28, a Palestinian American with family members in Gaza who were living in tents after their home was destroyed. “The ‘vote uninstructed’ campaign is designed to say, polling has clearly shown what we want, yet you continue to do otherwise.”

Wisconsin votes on April 2, along with Connecticut and Rhode Island — both states with an “uncommitted” option, both with campaigns just now getting underway. “This is a worthwhile moment to think about what primaries are,” said Lex Rofeberg, a 33-year old rabbi who said he’d just started having conversations about a grassroots Rhode Island campaign after reading about which states allowed a countable protest vote.

The Hawaii campaign, which was organized even quicker than Michigan’s, showed how this could work even in places with few Muslim or Arab American voters. Cindy Franklin, an academic at the University of Hawaii, said that the effort that would win nearly a third of all caucus votes came together when people already organized in “Palestine solidarity” campaigns realized they could pull it off.

“I would like to see complete defunding of Israel,” Franklin, 61, said of her own goals. “I would like to see condemnation of Israel as an apartheid state. I would like to see the United States stop making possible not only genocide, but decades of settler colonialism that include practices of apartheid, military occupation, ethnic cleansing, and dispossession.”

There is no serious organized Democratic Party effort to stop these campaigns, which highlight an issue that separates the president from most of his voters. (The Hawaii Democratic Party voted to endorse a permanent ceasefire in December.) State party chairs who talked with Semafor about the campaigns agreed on two points — that the president was trying to get a ceasefire that nearly all critics should be able to support, and that they’d rather those critics cast ballots than throw them out.

“We don’t censure our members for disagreements on policies,” said Nancy DiNardo, the chair of the Connecticut Democratic Party. “We have that all the time. We just hope that, later, we can talk to them and convince them why it’s important that they do vote Democratic in November.”

DAVID’S VIEW

The end of the competitive phase of the primary is a boon to protest-voters and organizers, who have flooded the zone that Nikki Haley and Dean Phillips just abandoned. These primaries are going to happen anyway, and a press corps hungry for a story — this is me, breaking the fourth wall — will have one until the war ends.

What’s new, since Michigan, is how little the Democratic Party’s institutions are worried about the protest vote. There was audible grumbling from Biden HQ about how much attention last month’s “uncommitted” vote got in Michigan, including equal time on cable news panels and live coverage from a Dearborn election night party. Biden allies pushed back with facts about the previous uncommitted vote, downplaying the meaning of 101,000 Michiganders voting against Biden, when more than 623,000 voted for him.

The grumbling phase is over. “Uncommitted” got just 0.4% of the vote in Washington four years ago, when Bernie Sanders was still in the race and came 22,000 votes away from beating Biden. Democrats expect a decent-sized protest vote tonight, and maybe in the following weeks. But they are viewing it less as a threat and more as a safety valve for unavoidable frustrations over a difficult topic.

THE VIEW FROM THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN

“The President believes making your voice heard and participating in our democracy is fundamental to who we are as Americans,” a Biden campaign spokesman said in a statement. “He shares the goal for an end to the violence and a just, lasting peace in the Middle East. He’s working tirelessly to that end.”

NOTABLE

  • In The Stranger, Seattle’s alt-weekly, editors urged Washingtonians to cast protest votes. “If the two genocidal geriatrics leading the polls this primary season do not excite you, then you’re in good company.”
  • In the Ettingermentum Newsletter, the eponymous author maps out every state where protest-voters can go for uncommitted. “How many prospective uncommitted voters out there actually know what their options are?”
PostEmail
State of Play

Ohio. Gov. Mike DeWine and ex-Sen. Rob Portman both waded into the GOP’s competitive U.S. Senate primary, endorsing state Sen. Matt Dolan over Secretary of State Frank LaRose and Trump-backed luxury car dealer Bernie Moreno. “We believe this proven conservative is the strongest candidate,” DeWine wrote in a joint statement with his wife. He didn’t mention either challenger, but Moreno has polled slightly worse than Dolan in trial heats against Sen. Sherrod Brown, while LaRose was damaged by his campaigning against last year’s “reproductive freedom” amendment. The measure passed easily after voters rejected a LaRose-backed effort to make it harder to change the state constitution.

D.C. The Republican National Committee acclaimed Trump as the party’s 2024 nominee last week, and elected its new co-chairs — North Carolina GOP chair Michael Whatley, and Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law. They set about laying off dozens of RNC staffers, to the delight of conservative activists who wanted ex-chair Ronna McDaniel gone. “The anti-Trump sleeper cells all have to go,” Turning Point USA president Charlie Kirk posted on X. “The RNC is getting ready to win.”

PostEmail
Ads
Biden for President

Biden for President, “For You.” It’s been the most popular bit of advice for Biden from freelancing Democrats: Lean into your age. Biden did it in his State of the Union address, and does it in his first post-speech ad buy, from its first line (“Look, I’m not a young guy”) to its fake-out blooper ending (“Look, I’m very young, energetic and handsome, what the hell am I doing this for?”) The careful candor bookends a contrast spot that boasts about the Biden record and warns that Trump would fumble it away.

Patel for PA, “Patel Builds.” On April 23, Pennsylvania Rep. Summer Lee will face the first primary challenge for a member of the extended “squad.” Like Lee’s 2022 challengers, Bhavini Patel suggests that the incumbent can’t bring resources home because she crosses her party, highlighting her opposition — as a candidate, who didn’t have a vote yet — to the 2021 infrastructure bill. “I’m about strengthening our party and rebuilding our region,” says Patel. Lee, like many progressives, opposed the bill unless it was paired with the rest of Biden’s Build Back Better agenda. And like every incumbent, she’s touted the money it brought back home.

Bost for Congress, “Own Words.” Six years ago, Trump traveled to eastern Illinois to campaign for Rep. Mike Bost, promising that the conservative congressman was “going to win big.” Trump endorsed Bost for re-election, in a redrawn district where he faces a right-wing primary challenger. In lieu of a new campaign spot, Bost recycled the last one, with the presidential seal right under Trump and a pitch (“a continuation to make America great again”) that hasn’t changed.

PostEmail
Polls

The big theory of the Biden re-election campaign is that voters don’t appreciate how much the economy has recovered, and that when they do, they’ll climb on board. The FT’s poll is the latest to find that around a third of all voters, mostly Democrats, know that a few major indicators are better than they were in January 2021. The numbers have jumped since December, and all of the data was collected before the State of the Union, which the Biden campaign saw as its chance to shift the “better off four years ago?” conversation.

As soon as North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson clinched the nomination last week, Democrats uncorked the opposition research they had on him — many videos and many Facebook posts in which he condemned modern feminism and LGBT rights movements. The goal is making Josh Stein, the two-term attorney general, the only possible choice for moderate voters. This early poll puts Stein 28 points ahead with moderates, boosting him even as both candidates are supported by about the same share of partisans.

PostEmail
On the Trail
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

White House. Both Trump and Biden should clinch their re-nominations today by winning most of the delegates available in Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington. Democrats wrapped up their Northern Mariana Islands caucuses early in the morning, with Biden sweeping all six delegates after his surprise loss in American Samoa last week, and they’re finishing the international Democrats Abroad vote, with 13 delegates available; Republicans will assign 19 delegates in Hawaii’s caucuses.

The big prize for both parties is Georgia – 59 GOP delegates, and 108 for Democrats. Trump led Haley by landslide margins before the former U.N. ambassador quit the race, and delegates are winner-take all, statewide and in House districts, for any candidate who gets a simple majority. Trump and Biden both swung through the state over the weekend, but none of Biden’s challengers campaigned there, and there’s no “uncommitted” option to vote for. (Democrats have uniform rules: If a candidate or “uncommitted” crosses 15% in the state or district, they start to win delegates.) Polls close at 7 p.m. eastern time.

Polls close at 8 p.m. eastern time, in Mississippi, where Democrats will pick 35 delegates and Republicans will pick 40; they close at 11 p.m. eastern in Washington, with 92 Democratic delegates and 43 Republican delegates. Trump needs 137 more delegates to win the nomination, or 86% of what’s available today; Biden needs just 96, and could lock it up as soon as Georgia’s votes get counted.

Senate. Trump endorsed former Rep. Mike Rogers for Michigan’s open seat, syncing up with the GOP’s Senate campaign committee and opposing two former members of Congress who’d crossed him. (They are: Ex-Rep. Peter Meijer, who lost his House seat in 2022 after voting to impeach Trump, and his predecessor, ex-Rep. Justin Amash, a libertarian Trump critic.) After Trump’s intervention, wealthy self-funder Sandy Pensler scrapped a planned ad buy.

House. Colorado Rep. Ken Buck will leave the House on March 22, surprising his Republican colleagues and reducing their numbers to 218. “I hear that people are not happy with Trump and they’re not happy with Biden,” Buck told CNN on Tuesday, in a round of interviews where he condemned how his party was running the place. “I am going to find the right organization to join and I’m going to start working on that issue. We have to have better candidates up and down the ballot.”

Buck’s departure will create a vacancy that Republicans can’t fill until June, at the earliest. Democrats, who hold 213 seats after their special election victory on Long Island, are favored to hold a safe open seat in western New York on April 30; Republicans likely won’t start filling their three vacancies until late May 21, when California Assemblyman Vince Fong is the favorite to replace ex-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. (It could be sooner if Fong takes more than 50% in a March 19 special election primary. If not, he’ll face another candidate in the May runoff.) No sitting member of Congress can run in another district without resigning — which means that Rep. Lauren Boebert, currently seeking Buck’s 4th Congressional District instead of her swingier 3rd District, will either have to quit to run in the special, or stand aside as another Republican replaces Buck through November.

Montana Rep. Matt Rosendale ended his short Washington career on Friday, announcing his retirement from the House just nine days after abandoning his U.S. Senate campaign. The reason: Unreasonable harassment of his family, which he didn’t explain further. “I have been forced to have law enforcement visit my children because of a death threat against me and false and defamatory rumors against me and my family,” Rosendale said in a statement.

In New Jersey, Rep. Bill Pascrell, Jr. got a fresh challenge from Prospect Park Mayor Mohamed T. Khairullah, who’d be the state’s first Muslim member of Congress. First elected in 2005, the Syria-born Khairullah made national news last year when he was abruptly disinvited from a White House Eid celebration, a decision the president’s team never explained. Pascrell, the second-oldest member of the House, last faced a serious primary 12 years ago, when he was forced into a new district with a former Democratic colleague; Pascrell’s team pointed out last week that he was the first to demand answers after the White House snub.

PostEmail
Next
  • three days until the Northern Mariana Islands Republican presidential caucuses
  • four days until the Guam Republican convention
  • seven days until presidential primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Kansas, and all primaries in Illinois and Ohio
  • 13 days until the start of Trump’s trial in New York
  • 244 days until the 2024 presidential election
PostEmail