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In this edition: Quick videos dominate the 2024 campaign, Ohio Republicans settle the year’s most co͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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March 19, 2024
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David Weigel

The viral ‘bloodbath’ clip and the rise of the liberal video influencer

AFP via Getty Images/Kamil Krzaczynski

THE SCENE

The day before the State of the Union, the Biden administration hosted a group of social media influencers to talk strategy. They got a preview of the speech, embargoed until it was delivered; they talked with White House strategist Anita Dunn and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff about the president’s agenda. Two guests in particular, Aaron Rupar and Ron Filipowski, had the power to drive day-long news cycles with carefully chosen video clips.

“I don’t consider myself all that important, so it was very surprising to me that they all followed me on Twitter,” Filipowski told Semafor. “It was kind of shocking to me that they paid so much attention to what I did.”

Millions of people pay attention to the Florida-based Filipowski, the Minnesota-based Rupar, and the anonymous Acyn, a video editor in Los Angeles who works under Filipowski at the activist liberal news site MeidasTouch. They have a combined 2.3 million followers on X, formerly Twitter, though only Filipowski pays for a blue check. And their editorial judgments have immense influence on campaign coverage and the political discourse.

That was proven over the weekend when Acyn clipped 17 seconds from Donald Trump’s Saturday rally speech in Ohio — a riff on his plan for a 100% tariff on foreign cars, warning that “if I don’t get elected, it’s gonna be a bloodbath.” The text of Acyn’s post quoted Trump, but did not include his comments about the auto industry, enraging Republicans who complained it was misleading. Democrats, meanwhile, leaped to demand news outlets cover it as a major story that underscored Trump’s violent intentions.

The Biden campaign shared a shorter clip of the same moment 58 minutes later, and on Sunday and Monday, Republicans who ventured onto news shows were confronted with a “bloodbath” question, rejecting the premise, but failing to stop its spread.

“Look, I talk in a different format than what the former president does,” South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds told CNN on Sunday, repeatedly resisting an ask to condemn the “bloodbath” language. Some Trump critics on the left and right blanched at the interpretation, but they were outnumbered by Democrats like Hillary Clinton (“What would you say if you saw this in another country?”) — and by the Biden campaign, which cut the clip into a web ad.

“The problem that he ran into with the ‘bloodbath’ thing was that he gave all of these networks a very easy headline and frame,” Rupar told Semafor. Rupar talked frequently with Acyn, over direct messages; after the Ohio speech, he recalled Acyn saying it was “kind of boring,” as he suggested there was a lot of potential content. In the end, Acyn’s “bloodbath” clip drove days of news.

“We compete in that we’re posting a lot of similar stuff for a similar audience,” said Rupar. “But it’s not like it’s some zero-sum game. There’s room for everybody.”

DAVID’S VIEW

For all its Elon-era quirks and maladies, like the inability to post anything without a spambot sliding into replies, X hasn’t lost its power to drive the news cycle. It’s the most popular conveyance for short video clips, which can be copied and re-shared by anyone, with little care for context — urban crime, bad AI, and the worst moments from political speeches.

Last summer, Democrats believed they were losing this info war to the right, and specifically to the Republican National Committee, whose rapid response account was a nonstop clip machine. If Joe Biden ambled around before leaving a stage, it would show up on RNC Research, and there was nothing Democrats could do; Biden’s speeches were seen less, and shared less, than his verbal and physical miscues.

So the Biden campaign beefed up its rapid response team, now at a dozen people, sharing potentially viral videos on its BidenHarrisHQ account, which has clocked one billion impressions since its August 2023 relaunch — 26 million alone of a moment when Nikki Haley gave a rambling response to a New Hampshire town hall attendee who asked about the cause of the Civil War.

It worked because of the independent video-clippers — mainly Rupar and the MeidasTouch team — that looked relentlessly for killer moments from Trump interviews and rallies. Trump gave most of his interviews to ideologically friendly outlets, and those outlets had content that liberal viewers would never see unless it was presented elsewhere.

“Every morning, I get up and I rip through the Maria Bartiromo show to see which guests are on there,” said Rupar, who now employs “some really brilliant and talented people” to help with his Public Notice newsletter. “I rip through Fox and Friends. I rip through the Newsmax morning show.”

Rupar and Filipowski frequently saw their videos get spread around X, then appear in news segments, then, sometimes, in late-night monologues. One of Filipowski’s goals was changing the storyline of presidential feebleness, the driver of so many Republican video clips, by making every Trump slip infamous. The Biden campaign launched a similar effort.

“The Meidas guys, as a team, said: We are going to do this to Trump,” Filipowski said. “We are going to hit every gaffe, every mispronunciation, every slurred word, every mispronounced name, every time he mixes up a name. We’re going to clip that and we’re going to put it out and we’re going to put it in montages. No one else was doing that. Before last August, you can’t find a mainstream media story about Trump mispronouncing and slurring words. They weren’t out there.”

The Biden campaign didn’t comment directly on how a few influential anti-Trump accounts, working on laptops with video-clipping software, had become so important in shaping campaign coverage. But Matt Gorman, a longtime GOP communications pro who worked on Sen. Tim Scott’s presidential campaign, said “online personalities” had natural advantages over campaign accounts or traditional media.

A media outlet might hesitate to post something that critics could call out for missing context; a campaign was assumed to be bending facts for its own benefit. (Think of the campaign reactions to their candidates’ debate performances, which never seriously compete with viral clips.) It was smarter, said Gorman, for campaigns to cultivate allies, then promote their work.

“That’s the way rapid response is going,” said Gorman. “If Biden were to embed the video in a press release, no one would see it or click.”

And plenty of people click on these accounts. Later on Monday, Trump filed a lawsuit against ABC News and George Stephanopoulous for defamation, citing Rupar five times to show how the host’s description of the E. Jean Caroll case had spread through the media and damaged the former president.

ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT

The larger meaning of Trump’s “bloodbath” comment, that the auto industry would be gutted if he didn’t win the election, worried some liberals who felt Democrats should pick fights on stronger ground. Kevin Drum, arguing with Trump critic George Conway, said that hyping Trump clips would “give him yet another excuse to call out how unfairly he’s treated.” The Intercept’s Ryan Grim called Rupar, and people like him, “Trump’s most valuable weapons,” for highlighting quotes that Trump could spin away.

“My sense is that he is more about kneecapping people like me than he is actually opposing Trump,” said Rupar. (Grim called Rupar “a threat to the free press, undermining honest reporters by presenting himself as a journalist but behaving as a partisan hack.”)

THE VIEW FROM THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN

Biden’s rival tried to turn the “bloodbath” coverage to his advantage, releasing a video on Monday that blamed the president for a “border bloodbath,” compiling news clips of illegal immigrants accused of grisly crimes — which trended on X afterward, and led a fundraising email.

“No amount of gaslighting from the Biden campaign can mask Biden’s Bloodbath he has brought all across America,” said Trump spokesman Steven Cheung, “from the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal costing American lives, record number of illegals crossing the border to kill Americans, making America less safe with a feckless foreign policy, and allowing rampant crime to explode in cities.”

NOTABLE

  • In Politico, Meredith McGraw profiled Filipowski at his Sarasota home, explaining how he could “blow up a politician’s comment or gaffe with attention.”
  • In the New York Times, Maggie Astor studies how the “bloodbath” quote was used by both campaigns, irking Republicans like Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy: “That kind of rhetoric, it’s always on the edge — maybe doesn’t cross, maybe does, depending upon your perspective.”
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State of Play

The presidential primary is over, except for protest voting, but the primary season continues. Three states — Arizona, Florida, and Kansas — will hold preference polls today, assigning a total of 329 Democratic delegates and 207 Republican delegates. In Florida, there’s literally no Democratic contest, following the state party’s vote to nominate Biden at its convention, and some progressives are worried about the paltry turnout they’ve seen in the nine counties holding simultaneous local elections.

In three other states, Democrats will decide whether to re-nominate one of their oldest House incumbents, raise Chicago taxes, and pick criminal justice reformers for prosecutor races; Republicans will pick a challenger to Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown and their nominees in a few safe seats, including two left vacant by retirements.

Ohio. The GOP primary for U.S. Senate ended in a storm of scandals, denials, and legal threats, after the Associated Press reported on an old Adult Friend Finder hook-up page tied to luxury car dealer Bernie Moreno, right before Trump arrived to campaign for him. Moreno’s campaign fought back all weekend, and public polling showed him with a narrow lead over state Sen. Matt Dolan — both are wealthy men who have loaned their campaigns millions of dollars and gotten super PAC back-up from other wealthy donors.

Both men, as well as Secretary of State Frank LaRose, are also based in northeast Ohio; only Moreno, who abandoned a 2022 U.S. Senate bid to support J.D. Vance, has never won an election before. Dolan, who lost that 2022 race to Vance, performed best in and around the state’s biggest cities, where he campaigned as the least-MAGA-aligned Republican. He’s consolidated that vote this year, picking up endorsements from Gov. Mike DeWine and former Sen. Rob Portman; Moreno has been endorsed by Vance, Vivek Ramaswamy, and other high-profile Trump supporters.

Republicans will also pick candidates in two deep red seats — the 2nd district outside of Cincinnati, the 6th district in Appalachia — and nominees in two swing seats that Democrats held in 2022. (Voters in the vacant 6th district will also be picking their candidate for the May special election to fill the seat.) The candidates in the 2nd include Phil Heimlich, an “anti-MAGA” Republican with some support from Democrats, and Derek Myers, a former aide to ex-Rep. George Santos who accidentally issued his concession speech hours before polls closed.

In the Toledo-based 9th district, former state Rep. Craig Riedel stayed in the race after being caught on tape attacking Trump; state Rep. Derek Merrin jumped in before the filing deadline after national Republicans panicked about the tape’s impact. (They were worried because J.R. Majewski, who lost the 2022 race in a rout, was running again; he dropped out of the race 17 days ago, after being caught using a slur for mentally disabled people.) Trump endorsed Merrin on Monday. In the Akron-based 13th district, ex-state Sen. Kevin Coughlin and suburban councilman Chris Banweg are fighting for the right to challenge Rep. Emilia Sykes.

Illinois. Each major party has a competitive primary in a safe house seat. In the Chicago-based 7th district, where Rep. Danny K. Davis is seeking a 15th term, four Democrats are challenging him. Community activist Kina Collins is running for the third time, after winning 14% of the vote in 2020 and 45% in 2022; Chicago city treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin jumped into the race as Davis began to look more vulnerable. She outraised and outspent him, but was bedeviled by ethics investigations, and Gov. J.B. Pritzker endorsed the incumbent as early voting began. Also on the ballot in Cook County — a real estate tax favored by Mayor Brandon Johnson, and a successor to State’s Attorney Kim Foxx, a criminal justice reformer whose popularity crumbled as crime increased after 2020.

In southwestern Illinois’s 12th district, which Democrats gerrymandered to be safe for Republicans, Rep. Mike Bost drew a challenge from Darren Bailey, a former state representative who lost the 2022 gubernatorial election to Pritzker — after Pritzker spent money to help him beat stronger-seeming candidates. Bost handily outraised Bailey, with ads celebrating his own Trump endorsement. Bailey, who built his conservative reputation by opposing COVID restrictions, has accused Bost of going along too frequently with his party, and not doing enough to halt spending in the House.

California. The race to replace ex-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy could end today, in a jungle primary where McCarthy and a super PAC have spent six figures to help Assemblyman Vince Fong. If Fong wins more than 50% of the vote, he’ll win the Bakersfield-based 20th district outright. If he gets less than that against the eight other candidates on the ballot — two Democrats, three Republicans, and three independents — he and the second-place finisher will head to a May 21 runoff.

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Ads
Buckeye Leadership Fund

Buckeye Leadership Fund, “Breaking News.” Every reporter and operative in Ohio was aware of the Adult Friend Finder profile that could hurt Bernie Moreno before the AP covered it on Thursday; the page was exposed in a 2016 network hack. It took just hours for Matt Dolan to put the accusation on TV, with this spot built to look like a news alert and repeating the “creepy” allegations, warning that Democrats are already spending money to help Moreno because they think he’ll lose.

Bernie Moreno for Senate, “MAGA Alert.” Moreno’s campaign is closing with the biggest, most important validator in 2024 Republican politics: Donald Trump. This 15-second spot covers nothing else, flashing photos of the two men together and apart, urging MAGA voters to back another “conservative businessman.”

United Democracy Project, “Wrong Choice.” In 2022, Kina Collins came within seven points of beating Rep. Danny K. Davis. Last year, shortly after the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel, Collins called for a ceasefire. That helped coax the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s allied super PAC into the race, with an ad not about Israel, but about comments she made in June 2020, comparing riots that summer to the Boston Tea Party and calling to “defund the police and fund communities.” The last three words of that sentence don’t make it into the ad.

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Polls

The closing message of Matt Dolan’s campaign is that he’d beat Sherrod Brown, and that Bernie Moreno would lose to him. Dolan ran the same electability play in 2022, when polling showed a jump ball race between now-Sen. J.D. Vance and then-Rep. Tim Ryan. But Brown is better-known, and runs between 2 points and 5 points ahead of Joe Biden; the Republicans run 5 to 8 points behind Trump. Dolan’s advantage over Moreno is at the edge of the margin for error.

Republican politicians are unanimous: Trump’s ongoing legal problems are “election interference” and “lawfare,” political gambits to defeat him in 2024. Voters aren’t convinced by that. While 44% of Republicans say that Trump shouldn’t go on trial this year, supermajorities of Democrats and independents disagree. Half of all voters say that Trump should be imprisoned if convicted, another outcome that Republicans call unthinkable.

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On the Trail
REUTERS/Bonnie Cash

White House. President Biden headed to Nevada on Tuesday for a post-State of the Union swing. On Tuesday, he focused on policy — specifically, lowering rents and home prices.

Trump kept a light schedule, talking with former aide Sebastian Gorka on his podcast, avoiding details on Gaza policy but accusing Democrats of anti-Zionism for criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“I don’t think they hate him, I think they hate Israel,” Trump said. “And the Democrat Party hates Israel.” Any Jewish voter who supported Democrats, he said, “hates their religion.”

In New York, Trump’s attorneys told the court of appeals that he’d been unable to find creditors to pay the $464 million judgment against him and his family in the state’s civil fraud case. That left him without the resources to get an appeal bond, leaving three options: A successful appeal, sales of some of his properties, or seizures of his properties by the state.

Senate. New Jersey Rep. Andy Kim got his day in court on Monday, as hearings began over his lawsuit arguing that the state’s “county line” system unfairly discriminates against some candidates. “Races are not presented to voters in an even-handed way or a constitutional way,” said Kim’s attorney, Flavio Komuves, in district court. One day earlier, he’d won the convention vote in Morris County, giving him a 9-7 advantage in county endorsements over First Lady Tammy Murphy, though Murphy won in the most vote-rich Democratic counties.

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Next
  • four days until presidential primaries in Louisiana and Missouri
  • six days until the start of Trump’s trial in New York
  • 118 days until the Republican National Convention
  • 153 days until the Democratic National Convention
  • 237 days until the 2024 presidential election
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