Americana

1. GOP special election jitters
2. The Tesla defense league
3. The coming budget crunch
4. Elon’s Wisconsin intervention
5. Biden’s missing legacy

Also: A guy in a panda costume, and why he matters.

When I flew back from Colorado this week, after covering the largest rally of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ career, the question I kept getting was: Why is he doing this?

Surely he wasn’t running for president again, at age 83. He built his crowds — 32,000 people in Denver, 20,000 in Tucson — with New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, so maybe this was the dedazo that left-wing Democrats have been waiting for. But when ABC News asked if he wanted her to run for Senate, he stood up and ridiculed the “inside-the-beltway” question. He stopped one of mine, too, a probably too-early question about how progressives and Democrats should use executive power after Donald Trump expands it and they, one day, win. (Reading that again, yes, it was too early.)

These were questions about future political projects. Sanders was focused on the current moment, when Democrats don’t have the votes to stop anything. The goal, he told me, was building an organization that could oppose “oligarchy,” which Elon Musk had saved him the trouble of defining, and finding candidates who could beat that oligarchy.

“We are going to do our best to get people to run as progressives,” Sanders told me in Greeley, a college town in a swing seat where about 10,000 people showed up to hear him and Ocasio-Cortez. “If they are comfortable running as independents, as independents; if they are comfortable running as progressive Democrats, let them run as progressive Democrats.”

Sanders would take a personal role in that project, which resembles what some of his 2016 campaigns veterans created eight years ago: Justice Democrats, the organization that elected Ocasio-Cortez. The permanent campaign he imagined sounded a bit like Our Revolution, another spinoff from his 2016 candidacy. These are not designed to replace the Democratic Party, as some of Sanders’ fans would like. They exist to constantly pressure it and critique it and influence it when it wins.

The Sanders/Ocasio-Cortez tour has been working with organizations (typically labor unions) where it travels, and leaving organizations behind, like a staffer in Wisconsin helping on the April 1 state supreme court race. It’s doing this as institutions that liberals work with are under various levels of attack by the Trump administration. It’s sanctioned liberal law firms, rescinded university funding in exchange for policy and personnel changes, and demanded that post-George Floyd changes to museums be erased and replaced.

New Right thinkers have explained the theory here. The left doesn’t have a natural place in American politics, it’s burrowed into institutions to build one, and it can be rooted out if those institutions are humbled or purged. The Sanders tour, with its patriotic imagery and careful distance from Democrats, is about building something else, and proving the theory wrong.

Trump pulls UN pick after Dem gains

The president withdrew New York Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination for UN Ambassador on Thursday, explaining that “with a very tight Majority, I don’t want to take a chance on anyone else” in her deep red district. Stefanik, who held a three-stop “farewell tour” on what was supposed to be her journey out of Congress, will remain there to provide votes for the rest of the party’s agenda.

That decision came amid two Republican electoral heartburns — the loss of a formerly safe state senate seat in Pennsylvania, and a surge of resources into a Florida congressional seat that backed Trump by 30 points last year.

“The extremists are afraid they will lose the special election to replace her,” House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said Thursday. Hours earlier, he had been celebrating James Malone’s victory in Lancaster County, an upset over Republicans who turned away help, assisted by an intervention from Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro. “I know that these are challenging times,” Shapiro said in a robocall for Malone. “Folks are often casting about, trying to figure out, what is it that I can do to help in this moment?”

Democratic enthusiasm and GOP sloth had spurred a panic in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, too, a seat Trump won by 30 points, where Democrats did not expect to compete. Josh Weil, a Democratic teacher who hired an aggressive digital fundraising firm, raised $10 million (and spent most of it) as GOP state Sen. Randy Fine barely campaigned.

“He never showed up for anything,” Weil told Semafor, describing how he largely had the Space Coast district to himself in February. “He went out of his way to push for three special legislative sessions in Tallahassee. Normally, if someone had another campaign to win, they’d be doing everything they can to get out of there and come to the district.”

Fine raised just $1 million for his race; the Florida GOP and a crypto PAC have spent four times more to help him after the first week of early voting showed Democratic voters, despite being badly weakened in the state, running even with Republicans. A poll released Thursday by Fabrizio Ward showed a dead heat between the candidates, while the other April 1 election in the state, for the Panhandle seat vacated by ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz, has not been competitive.

GOP, DOJ back Tesla, target Texas Democrat

Republicans stepped up their defense of Elon Musk and Tesla by trying to censure Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett. The proximate cause was a weekend speech to the Human Rights Campaign, where she called state’s paraplegic Gov. Greg Abbott “hot wheels” presiding over a “hot-ass mess.” But the anger against the second-term congresswoman had been building since she joined a call for Tesla Takedown, a group that organizes peaceful protests outside Musk-owned dealerships, with a major day of action planned for Saturday.

Attorney Gen. Pam Bondi accused Crockett of wishing harm on Musk himself, falsely claiming that the Democrat wanted to “take out” (not “take down”) the DOGE leader. “In her own home state, after she said that: This morning, three explosive devices found in Austin,” Bondi said of Crockett on Tuesday, urging her to “apologize” to Musk and shareholders — even though the FBI’s assessment of anti-Tesla attacks is that they are not coordinated, and there is no evidence that they are inspired by the Democrats’ criticism and protests.

“They’ve tried to claim I’ve gotten rich off of something nefarious in Congress. Then they moved on to claiming that I had a husband and was engaged in something nefarious with him,” Crockett told Semafor. “Then they moved on to being outraged that I’ve gotten a private education, to now being mad that I’m supporting peaceful protests, as I have for years.”

Crockett’s sharp tongue has made her a central figure in GOP messaging against Democrats, portraying the former public defender as a party leader — though she lost a House leadership bid last year. It’s wormed right into the campaign to brand even peaceful anti-Tesla activism as violent, and violence against Teslas and their infrastructure as “terrorism.”

Tea Party fears spending jam

Republicans elected at the peak of the Tea Party movement are wary of some Trump demands in the upcoming budget, including an increase to the debt ceiling that they opposed under prior presidents.

“They need to be more verbal, and if they’re vocal now, I think we can remove it from the bill,” Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul told Semafor. “If more people don’t stand up, they’re going to jam things at the end and put it on.”

House Republicans have put their trust in Trump and Elon Musk’s DOGE to find spending cuts, a leap of faith that made it easier for the party to pass a continuing resolution this month. Senate Republicans who want bigger structural reforms are not as enthused by the assurance that later, not now, is the time for steep spending reduction.

“They say, ‘this is the first step here, we can always do more,’” Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson told Semafor. Unless the party cuts spending now, he said: “We’re not going to do more.”

Musk heads to Wisconsin for court election

Elon Musk said he’ll campaign in Wisconsin on Sunday, capping his unprecedented investment in the state’s supreme court race. It started with ad buys from his Building America’s Future PAC, continued with direct mail to Republicans from his America PAC, and accelerated with cash offers to voters who signed a petition to reject “activist judges who impose their own views” on citizens.

“I will also personally hand over two checks for a million dollars each in appreciation for you taking the time to vote,” Musk wrote on X, previewing his Sunday night appearance. It would be open, he said, to Wisconsinites who prove that they’ve voted in the race between Democratic Party-backed candidate Susan Crawford and GOP-backed Brad Schimel. Ben Wikler, the chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, said that by offering $100 to voters who signed America PAC’s petition, and awarding $1 million prizes to a random supporters, Musk was “committ[ing] a blatant felony.”

Musk’s spending — more than $20 million between his various groups — has been manna for Republicans. They were outspent by Democrats in the 2023 judicial election, and Democratic donors like George Soros and Gov. JB Pritzker came back this year, donating to the state party to bolster its work for Crawford.

Last month, armed with polling that showed Musk to be extraordinarily unpopular with Democrats, the party built a “People vs. Musk” campaign to highlight it. (Both parties figure that turning out more than 62% of their 2024 voters would win the race — it’s a turnout contest, not a persuasion game.)

“He’s not elected, he’s not appointed,” Crawford told Semafor last week, before Musk began offering money to voters who opposed “activist” judges. “He’s just out there doing his thing, and reviewing a lot of private data of citizens, and firing people, and really upending the federal government. I think just his proximity to the president is a unique and kind of disturbing factor here.” Republicans see Musk’s higher involvement as a pure benefit, exciting their base as they try to bring back their 2024 voters.

The incredible shrinking Biden legacy

Nine weeks after leaving the presidency, Joe Biden’s legacy inside the Democratic Party is non-existent. That was underlined at the rallies Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez held last week, as the two progressives and their special guests apologized for a liberal establishment that failed its voters.

“For the last 30 or 40 years, Democrats have turned their backs on the working class of this country,” Sanders told his massive crowd in Denver.

Sanders took a different tone during Biden’s presidency, when he ran the Senate’s HELP committee and the White House often acted on progressive goals. “Biden’s policies, by and large, are for the working class of this country, and we’ve got to appreciate that,” he told voters in Wisconsin last year, campaigning for the embattled elderly president after the CNN debate that ultimately unraveled his reelection bid.

Progressives and populists are now trying to reboot their arguments for the second Trump era. That means, in part, erasing the Biden administration and its wins from the record — and doing it before a wave of upcoming books that will revisit how Democrats made excuses for the ex-president’s age and stumbles, until they no longer could.

“All of us from the left to the center have to ask why the most pro-union president of our life time, a president who invested record levels in jobs for people without a college degree, who walked a picket line for the first time ever did not receive more support from working class people, who instead supported a billionaire,” said Center for American Progress president Neera Tanden, a top policy advisor for Biden. “Perhaps other issues are also at play.”

United States Interior Secretary Doug Burgum will join top global leaders at Semafor’s 2025 World Economy Summit. Taking place April 23–25, 2025, in Washington, DC, this will be the first major gathering of its kind since the new US administration took office.

Bringing together leaders from both the public and private sectors — including congressional leadership, finance ministers, and central bankers — the three day summit will explore the forces shaping the global economy and geopolitics. Across twelve sessions, it will foster transformative, news-making conversations on how the world’s decision makers are tackling economic growth in increasingly uncertain times.

Apr. 23-25 | Washington, DC | Learn More

Polls

Three months out from primary day, New York Mayor Eric Adams’ reelection bid is more or less over. Wounded by scandal, then by the DOJ deal that ended the investigation into his finances and donations, he now has an 18% job approval rating in the city — nine points behind Donald Trump. That’s been a massive boost to Andrew Cuomo, who’s now the first choice of most Black voters and voters without college degrees. Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who’s dominated fundraising and social media interest in the campaign so far, has consolidated the left-wing vote and surged with voters who have college degrees. There’s a sprawling liberal/left effort to stop Cuomo, but the instant runoff system, right now, helps him: When the weaker non-Cuomo candidates are disqualified, Cuomo beats Mamdani by a 2-1 margin.

Republicans have gained ground in Texas since 2020, as Latino and other non-white voters shifted right. Texas Sen. John Cornyn has never been particularly vulnerable in a primary or general election, since winning his seat 23 years ago. But Democrats are wondering if his less-than-total loyalty to Donald Trump might make Cornyn vulnerable to a candidate easier to run against — Attorney Gen. Paxton, who led one of Trump’s 2020 election lawsuits and survived an impeachment effort backed by members of his own party. “You’ve constantly turned your back on Texans and President Trump,” Paxton posted on X in a reply to Cornyn’s campaign launch video, which reintroduced him as an ally who powered some of Trump’s “biggest wins.” (Cornyn was skeptical of the 2024 Trump comeback run, and didn’t endorse the president until he won the New Hampshire primary.) Former Rep. Colin Allred, who lost to Sen. Ted Cruz last year, is being encouraged to run again, and has a 37-30 favorable rating here. “Cornyn doesn’t have a base,” pollster Celinda Lake told Semafor. “He’s net negative with everybody.”

The paradox of Trump’s second term continues: His overall ratings are higher than they got in his first term, even as support for his handling of the economy is lower than it ever got then. Trump’s 45% approval rating is tracking ahead of his support eight years ago, bolstered by better numbers with non-white voters. Opinion of his handling of the economy and trade is much lower, with less than a third of independents expressing support. He hit lower levels on “foreign affairs” in the first term, and on the federal budget, when his administration added trillions to the debt with tax cuts and COVID relief bills. But right now, he’s only above water on energy policy, with gas prices falling slightly since January, and not to the $2 pandemic price that the Trump 2024 campaign suggested he could get back to.

Ads

• Mike Verveer for Madison, “Pandamonium.” On April 1, Wisconsinites will vote in the most expensive state supreme court race in American history. Tens of millions of dollars have been spent on ads, howling at viewers about child sex predators and rape, accompanied to menacing music and imagery. It’s also election day in a number of state municipalities, and Verveer, a Democrat running for another term on the Madison common council, is trying to take advantage of the grisly ad wars with this antidote: Thirty seconds of him and a man in a panda costume talking about his progressive urban growth agenda.
• Republican State Leadership Committee, “Show Up.” As we wrote last week, the crime-focused ads in Wisconsin have been joined by a new Republican argument: Show up to support Donald Trump. The closing message from the GOP’s downballot campaign group is that letting Democrats hold their court majority “would be like if Trump never won,” a nightmare dramatized by images of transgender athletes and chaos at the border. To save America and Wisconsin, voters can support “Trump ally Brad Schimel.”
• Building America’s Future, “Sneak.” Musk’s super PAC isn’t just spending in Wisconsin. It’s been running ads that thank Trump for his work so far, and give Republicans some air cover over obscure issues. This one, running in Kentucky, warns that the 340B drug pricing program, a target of the pharmaceutical industry, is funding “healthcare for illegal aliens,” abortion, and gender surgery — largely a reference to how some Planned Parenthood clinics take advantage of the pricing fix. It positions a low-profile issue that conservative think tanks and lobbyists have struggled to get into the news as a threat to Trump that Republicans must end.

Scooped!

I talk to California Rep. Ro Khanna fairly frequently. Go back up to the Tesla story, earlier in this newsletter — he’s in there. But I must credit Shane Goldmacher at The New York Times for talking to Khanna after he decided to hold events in Ohio and at Yale Law School to campaign against Vice President JD Vance, because he doesn’t think his party is doing enough to define or debate the heir apparent to the presidency. This is an early and potentially important 2028 story, even if Khanna doesn’t end up running. Few Democrats focus on Vance right now, even as they plot out New Hampshire trips, and Goldmacher got there first.

Next

• Four days until Wisconsin’s state supreme court election
• 74 days until primaries in New Jersey
• 81 days until primaries in Virginia
• 88 days until primaries in New York City
• 221 days until off-year elections
• 584 days until the 2026 midterm elections

David Recommends

We’re enjoying a solid month for serious political books. You should read “Abundance,” if you’re going to be participating in any Democratic Party discourse through 2028; you should read “Revenge” to get started on the cannonade of 2024 campaign lookbacks coming all year. But I had a lot of fun with something completely different, Alan Siegel’s “Stupid TV, Be More Funny.” Finally, fresh reporting on the “golden age” of The Simpsons, which ended more than 25 years ago after saving the Fox network, imparting the history of 20th century pop to millennials, starting the adult animation renaissance, and more relevant to this newsletter, changing politics with a full-spectrum satire of America.

US President Donald Trump’s pro-fossil fuel policies spell opportunity for some climate investors.

Trump’s push to drill more oil and gas and reduce reliance on clean power may be drawing the ire of climate activists and have helped Big Oil firms pivot back to what they are best at. But as fossil fuel giants shun even limited efforts at solar and wind, inflation fears keep interest rates steady, and Washington rhetoric chills the green-power sector, some investors see bargains to be picked up, Semafor’s Prashant Rao reported.