Principals

1. Trump’s tariff week
2. GOP leaders ‘confident’ on budget
3. Fink warns on US debt
4. NJ gov race
5. House votes soon on DC bill
6. Dems’ dueling media strategies

PDB: Trump’s Putin threat

Trump signs more executive orders … Asian shares dip amid tariff worries … Le Pen found guilty of embezzlement

Tariffs test Trump relationships

It’s a huge week for President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda — and the global economy. Trump has set a Wednesday deadline for reciprocal tariffs, while the first auto imports tariffs are slated to take effect the following day. When it comes to their scope, uncertainty reigns: Trump had suggested the tariffs would have some exemptions, but told reporters Sunday the levies would hit “all countries.” The Washington Post also reported that he has revived his idea of a universal tariff. A maximally aggressive approach would set Trump on a collision course with US allies, businesses, and congressional Republicans. Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., said the administration needs to “make the case” to tariff skeptics. “We’ve got businesses that will be harmed by this but are also supportive of what the president is trying to do,” Johnson said. “They are willing to give the president the benefit of the doubt.”

— Morgan Chalfant and Burgess Everett

Trump agenda hangs in the balance

Senate Republicans want progress on Trump’s tax and border agenda before Easter, and preliminary budget votes could begin as soon as this week, but there’s still work to do. Senate GOP leaders are considering deferring tough decisions on spending cuts, but it’s not clear fiscal conservatives will go for that. And the president wants a debt ceiling increase to remain part of the mega-bill. “It’s not how I would prefer to do it. I understand it’s this White House’s preferred way of doing it,” said Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, who sees economic growth and spending cuts running in tandem. And both parties are still fighting over whether Republicans have to count tax cut extensions as deficit increases — which Democrats have dubbed “magic math.” Still, Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso said he’s “very confident that we’re going to be able to get there.”

— Burgess Everett

BlackRock CEO issues warning on US debt

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said the United States’ ballooning national debt risks the dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency. The greenback’s central role in global finance, which is what allows Washington to borrow freely, is “not guaranteed to last forever,” he wrote this morning in his annual letter. Interest payments on the national debt are set to exceed defense spending, and the crowd of those expressing concern is expanding beyond traditional deficit hawks. “If the U.S. doesn’t get its debt under control, if deficits keep ballooning, America risks losing that position to digital assets like Bitcoin,” Fink writes, though he has also criticized budget cuts as a solution. Others are more concerned about the yuan or a common currency launched by US adversaries.

— Liz Hoffman

Dems face ‘awkward’ NJ gov primary

In their bids for New Jersey governor, Democratic Reps. Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer have struggled to get support from their delegation. Their colleagues are backing other candidates in the race instead, Semafor’s Kadia Goba reports. The six-way Democratic primary includes two members of Congress, two mayors, and a pair of influential Democratic stalwarts, making it “awkward” for some — like Rep. Nellie Pou, who remains uncommitted. Still, some fellow Jersey members are endorsing their colleagues’ opponents. “I love all my children. I just love Steve a little bit more,” Rep. Donald Norcross, D-N.J., told Semafor of Stephen Sweeney, his childhood friend who’ll also be on the June 10 ballot. A similar dynamic may play out in Tennessee, where Sen. Marsha Blackburn is eyeing a bid against GOP Rep. John Rose for governor.

DC bill headed to House floor — likely with Dem help

Budget hardliners are still requesting amendments on the Senate-passed DC funding bill, even after Trump urged the House to bring the legislation to the floor “IMMEDIATELY.” “We should use this opportunity to make certain that DC isn’t wasting money on ideas like DEI or reparations,” Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md., who doesn’t support the bill, said in a statement. Republicans are now inclined to bring up the budget fix, which would free up $1 billion for the nation’s capital sometime before the Easter break, Punchbowl News reported. But some Republicans still want some sway over the District’s budget to deter city officials from pursuing what Harris described as their “usual woke agenda.” So, House Speaker Mike Johnson will likely need a boost from his colleagues across the aisle. Democrats are on board with passing the bill, a senior leadership aide told Semafor.

— Kadia Goba

Dueling futures for Democratic media

As Democrats reel from their November losses, they’re experimenting with two media strategies. The first, epitomized by California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s provocative new podcast, involves sitting down with the enemy for a friendly chat; the other, pioneered by the outlet MeidasTouch, calls for churning out a steady stream of furiously anti-Trump content. Newsom and MeidasTouch founder Ben Meiselas both talked to Semafor’s Max Tani about why their strategy will be key to clawing back power and influence from Trump and the media ecosphere that supports him. “I’m not trying to own the conservatives like these guys try to own the libs,” Newsom told Max. “I’m not trying to go in and kick their ass and get a viral moment.” Meanwhile, MeidasTouch has scored more than its share of those, with its daily videos racking up six- and seven-digit view counts.

Uncommon Bonds: Remaking FEMA

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem raised eyebrows last week when she said that the Trump administration would “eliminate” the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The idea of doing away with FEMA is controversial, but there’s been bipartisan talk for years about overhauling the agency. Case in point: Reps. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., and Byron Donalds, R-Fla., introduced legislation recently that would move FEMA out from under DHS, shaping it into a Cabinet-level independent agency within a year of the bill’s signing. “Byron and I have been talking about how we can improve emergency response since we served in the Florida state house together, and his area was just recently hit by Hurricane Ian a few years ago — so he was the first person I thought of to ask for the reintroduction,” Moskowitz told Semafor.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Nearly nine in 10 K Street leaders believe that the final Republican reconciliation bill will include cuts to Inflation Reduction Act tax credits, while 74% predicted cuts to Medicaid and 72% cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

Playbook: Law firms, Ivy League universities, and media outlets alike are bending to President Trump’s will. “They’re playing to Trump’s strengths, which is as a mob boss,” says former Trump White House lawyer Ty Cobb.

WaPo: The US Conference of Mayors is laying out its demands of Republicans as they craft the reconciliation package and Trump tax cuts. Among them, the mayors want Republicans to continue the Biden-era clean energy tax credit, revive the child tax credit, and protect Medicaid.

Axios: Trump is eyeing a visit to Saudi Arabia in May, which would be his first foreign trip of his second term.

White House

• President Trump during an NBC interview said he “couldn’t care less” if automakers hike prices due to the auto levies, threatened secondary oil sanctions on Russia as he fumed at Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine ceasefire talks, and said he isn’t joking about trying to serve a third term.

Congress

• House Republicans will try to use the Rules Committee to stamp out Florida Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s discharge petition on proxy voting for new parents. — Politico
• Oliver Stone, whose film JFK helped popularize conspiracy theories about former President John F. Kennedy’s assassination, will appear at a hearing Tuesday on declassified records about Kennedy’s death.

Outside the Beltway

• At a rally for GOP Wisconsin state supreme court candidate ‎Brad Schimel Sunday night, Elon Musk raffled off giant $1 million checks to Wisconsinites who signed a petition and said they’d voted — a stunt the state high court declined to block just hours earlier.

Economy

• Japan and South Korea pledged to cooperate with China on regional trade, as President Trump’s tariffs loom.

Courts

• A pair of federal prosecutors were “dismissed abruptly, notified by a terse one-sentence email stating no reason for the move other than that it was on behalf of the president himself.” — NYT

National Security

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US would build a new “war-fighting” command in Japan with the goal of deterring China.
• Hegseth brought his wife to sensitive meetings with foreign counterparts. — WSJ

Immigration

• Green card holders are canceling overseas travel plans out of concern they might have trouble reentering the US. — WaPo

Foreign Policy

• Iran has rejected the Trump administration’s offer of direct negotiations with the US over its nuclear program. “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing,” President Trump told NBC News on Sunday.
• Greenland’s prime minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, reacted to Trump’s suggestion that the US will “get” Greenland: “The United States will not get that. We do not belong to others.”
• Israeli forces ordered Rafah evacuated.

Media

• The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg denied White House national security adviser Mike Waltz’s assertions that the two have never spoken.
• The White House plans to overhaul the briefing room seating chart. — Axios
• President Trump commuted Ozy Media founder Carlos Watson’s sentence shortly before he was set to go to prison for fraud.

Big Read

• The New York Times reveals that the US has been much more intimately involved in Ukraine’s war against Russia than publicly acknowledged. At a US base in Wiesbaden, Germany, American and Ukrainian officials laid plans for counteroffensives and exchanged critical intelligence about Russian positions.

Principals Team

Edited by Morgan Chalfant, deputy Washington editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor

And Graph Massara, copy editor

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

David Weigel covers politics for Semafor. Subscribe to his newsletter, Semafor Americana.

Somalia’s government has offered the US “exclusive operational control” over strategic ports on the Gulf of Aden in a bid to derail any recognition by Washington of breakaway regions in the troubled Horn of Africa nation, Amanda Sperber scooped. It made the offer despite not being in control of the sites.

The offer comes as Somalia battles to hold onto critical breakaway coastal regions amid concerns that the US could end its support for the nation’s state-building.