Africa

1. Nigeria’s oil concerns
2. S. Africa tries to ‘reset’
3. Senegalese accounting error
4. Mobile money expands
5. Sudan ex-PM’s warning
6. Cocoa price surges

A new wave of hip-hop in northern Ghana.

Hello! The concerns in African capitals over US President Donald Trump’s new tariff regime were initially focused on trade. But in truth, African trade with the US is relatively small — under $80 billion per year — and has been shrinking relative to the booming China-Africa trade that hit nearly $300 billion in 2024.

This is why the optimistic take has been that sub-Saharan Africa should have a buffer from the worst of the global trade disruption. But, as the saying goes, when the US sneezes, the world catches a cold, and Africa is particularly vulnerable. There’s now increasing talk of a global economic slowdown, so commodity prices are getting slammed as oil producers like Nigeria (see Alexander’s story below) worry about the “oil price effect.” Metals such as copper and gold are also getting hit as some investors flee.

Ralph Mupita, CEO of MTN, Africa’s largest mobile network, warned on Tuesday that a trade war would likely constrain its $2 billion capital spending plans. And an emerging markets private equity investor I met with yesterday suggested his firm would adopt a “wait and see” strategy due to the uncertainty. That seems to be something of a consensus.

Nigeria braces for oil revenue hit

Nigerian officials raised concerns about sweeping US tariffs, which came into full effect today, saying they could negatively impact Africa’s largest oil producer as crude prices drop over fears of a global recession.

The Trump administration imposed a 14% tariff on imports from Nigeria as part of last week’s “Liberation Day” announcement, blaming “unfair trade practices” that Washington says harm US exporters, including Nigeria’s import bans on items such as beef, pork, and certain pharmaceuticals.

The tariffs themselves have limited direct impact on Nigeria, given that oil and gas purchases are exempt. But they have served to drive oil prices down: Crude traded at four-year lows on Tuesday, edging towards the $60 mark. For Nigeria, which gets about 90% of its foreign exchange earnings from oil exports, that amounts to significant lost income. “It’s the price effect, the oil price effect that may affect Nigeria,” the country’s finance minister said.

The government’s $37 billion budget for 2025 — with its $8 billion deficit — was benchmarked against an international oil price of $75 a barrel.

ANC seeks coalition ‘reset’

South Africa’s African National Congress called for a “reset” in its relationship with its main coalition partner after weeks of contentious debate over the country’s budget.

The move comes as Africa’s most industrialized economy tries to allay investor and business concerns over a potential collapse of the government of national unity (GNU) formed less than a year ago.

ANC Secretary‑General Fikile Mbalula told journalists on Tuesday that the party was not planning to expel the Democratic Alliance from the coalition. Mbalula said the ANC — which last year lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid — has resolved to “reset the button to engage with all political parties in the GNU and those that are not in the GNU to address the impasse with regards to the budget.” Yet the ANC-DA partnership appears to be on borrowed time, after the DA voted against the budget this month, following protracted wrangling.

On Tuesday Morgan Stanley said risks to South Africa’s growth “skewed to the downside” because of political uncertainty.

Senegal vows to fix error

The International Monetary Fund’s Africa director acknowledged Senegal was taking steps to address an $11.8 million accounting error, which last month forced the IMF to suspend funding for new programs with Dakar.

Abebe Aemro Selassie said he had “constructive discussions” with Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye in Dakar over the West African country’s economic challenges and a push for fiscal transparency and accountability. The IMF suspended a $1.8 billion credit facility to Senegal last month pending a review of state finances after the country revealed in February that its debt and budget deficit were much wider than the previous administration had reported.

Faye, who at 45 is Africa’s youngest democratically elected leader, has been in office for one year and has earned an early reputation as “Mr Clean” on account of his anti-corruption campaign and national finance audits.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s mobile money clout

Sub-Saharan Africa drove the vast majority of growth in the global mobile money sector last year, according to a new report. The region saw $1.1 trillion in transactions processed through mobile money accounts out of a global total of nearly $1.7 trillion, the GSMA trade body found. “Sub-Saharan Africa remains the epicentre of mobile money,” the report said, driven by new registered accounts and rising monthly activity in East and West Africa. But a gender gap persists in eight of 12 surveyed countries, the report noted: Nigeria and Ethiopia stood out for lower mobile account ownership among women.

Olugbenga Agboola, Founder and CEO, Flutterwave; Robert Bradway, Chairman and CEO, Amgen; Doug Burgum, US Interior Secretary; John Caplan, CEO and Director, Payoneer Joanne Crevoiserat, CEO, Tapestry; Jacek Olczak, CEO, PMI and more will join the Taking the Pulse of Consumer Confidence session at the 2025 World Economy Summit. As consumer spending drives global economic growth, this session examines how shifting demographics, digital transformation, and economic uncertainty are redefining consumer sentiment and behavior worldwide.

April 25, 2025 | Washington, DC | Learn More

Sudan’s former PM issues warning

There is no military solution to the civil war in Sudan, a former prime minister of the country wrote in the Financial Times. “The only force capable of preserving Sudan’s unity and preventing its disintegration is a democratic, civilian-led government that represents all Sudanese people,” said Abdalla Hamdok, who served as premier between 2019 and 2022. More than 150,000 people have died and 12 million displaced in the conflict between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces that began in April 2023. Khartoum recently sent a letter of protest to the UK after it was excluded from a planned conference of global foreign ministers in London next week to discuss the war.

Côte d’Ivoire boosts cocoa prices

The price per kilogram that Côte d’Ivoire will pay its cocoa farmers for the mid-crop season from April to September, up from $3.01 for the main season that just ended, according to the agriculture minister. The price hike comes amid mounting complaints among farmers in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana — which together supply 60% of the world’s cocoa, mostly via forward contracts — that prices remain too far below the going rate for international buyers, which currently stands at $8.08 per kilogram. Drought and disease have hit cocoa production in recent years, rattling international markets.

“For farmers the increased price is good news but remains a disappointingly small share of the overall market cocoa price,” Caroline Cornier a researcher at Manchester University told Semafor, highlighting increased cocoa smuggling to neighboring countries.

— Madeleine Wright

Business & Macro

🇿🇦 Standard Bank Group made group chief executive Sim Tshabalala the interim CEO of the bank’s South Africa’s operations.

🌍 The Afreximbank issued a $303 million Panda bond on China Interbank Bond Market, the first to be issued by an African financier since Egypt in 2022.

Climate & Energy

🌍 The International Finance Corporation is considering a $100 million investment in a $1 billion climate-focused fund by private equity firm TPG that will invest in emerging market companies.

🇰🇪 Kenya Power, the utility, will spend $93 million in new financing from the African Development Bank to extend a rural electrification project to 150,000 households in 45 counties across the country.

Geopolitics & Policy

🇩🇿🇲🇱 Algeria and Mali banned flights between each other’s countries following tensions over Mali’s accusation that Algeria shot down an unmanned surveillance drone.

🇹🇿🇦🇴 Tanzania will offer visa-free entry for Angolan tourists, part of plans by both countries to strengthen their trade and security partnerships.

Tech & Deals

🌍 Sweden’s development finance body Swedfund will invest €15 million ($16.5 million) in AfricInvest Small Cap Fund, which aims to fund small and medium-sized agriculture, healthcare, education and consumer goods businesses in Africa.

🇳🇬 Sabou Capital, a Nigerian-owned investment firm, plans to raise a small-business fund to invest between $350K and $1.5 million in the agriculture, renewable energy, and logistics sectors.

A new wave of hip-hop in northern Ghana is winning over young audiences. Rooted in the dialect and culture of the city of Tamale, the music is “shaking up social media” with its distinctive north Ghanaian aesthetic, Pan African Music magazine reported. Artists including RICCH KID and Fad Lan make up the scene, drawing on trap and drill music as key influences. Their ”raw, unapologetic lyrics and heavy, synthesized beats are captivating audiences and filling up stadiums in the region,” the outlet wrote.

The Trump administration has reportedly made clear that it wants Europe to drop content moderation requirements for US tech giants. Vice President JD Vance offered hints of the approach at the February AI summit in Paris, where he denounced two European laws: The privacy-focused GDPR and the Digital Services Act.

The big US platforms are likely to win these fights, the German legislator and Big Tech critic Franziska Brantner told Semafor’s Ben Smith.

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— Preeti Jha, Alexander Onukwue, and Yinka Adegoke.