Net Zero

1. How China can win
2. Coal and showerheads
3. Carbon-sucking data centers
4. Fossil-fueled AI
5. Shrinking shareholders

Hard times now for wind, and hard times ahead for COP30 delegates.

China can win an energy trade war

US President Donald Trump’s ramped-up tariffs on Chinese goods is a gamble that his trade war will hurt Beijing more than Washington. But in the energy sector, at least, US victory is far from assured.

Chinese clean tech companies may actually emerge stronger as a result of increased isolation from the US market, analysts told Semafor, while American energy companies — fossil fuels and renewables — could find themselves increasingly at a loss.

“Trade tensions with the US aren’t going to dislocate China’s position in global green development,” said Herbert Crowther, energy analyst at the Eurasia Group. “The US was never the driving force behind the growth of China’s green industry, and the long-term view is still positive for these sectors.”

The challenge ahead for Chinese manufacturers of solar panels, EVs, and batteries is what to do with their excess manufacturing capacity if they don’t have the US as a market after Trump increased tariffs on imports from China to 125%. The good news, from their point of view, is that there are a number of options on how to profitably pivot in response. A narrowing export market may actually force China’s clean tech companies to do some long-overdue housecleaning that could both strengthen their bottom lines and support China’s progress toward decarbonization. That may not matter much to Trump, who is already no fan of US clean energy industries, but it promises to widen the gap between China and the US on technologies that most energy experts agree will be increasingly vital in the years ahead.

Of coal and showerheads

US President Donald Trump’s latest round of executive orders aims to bolster coal, kneecap climate-conscious state lawmakers, and “make showers great again.”

The coal orders end a moratorium on coal mine leasing, roll back power plant pollution regulations enacted by Biden, and instruct the Justice Department to “vigorously pursue and investigate” the “unconstitutional” policies of “radically leftist states” that “discriminate against coal,” among other measures. Coal’s share of US power has fallen sharply in the last decade, down to about 16% from almost half in 2010. And between competition from cheaper sources like gas and renewables, and the enormous costs entailed in keeping plants running, analysts said the orders are little more than symbolic. Trump also ordered prosecutors to root out “unconstitutional” state and local laws aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, potentially setting up a major battle over states’ rights. Finally, he ordered the Energy Department to rescind Biden-era restrictions on water flow from showerheads.

The World Economy Summit 2025 is bringing together the decision-makers who are shaping the future of global economic policy. The three-day summit, taking place from April 23–25, 2025 in Washington, DC, will focus on ways leaders across business, finance, tech, and beyond are navigating the complexities of tariffs, shifting trade dynamics, and evolving policy landscapes.

Featuring on-the-record conversations with Carlos Cuerpo, Minister for Economy, Trade and Business, Spain; Jan Jambon, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finances and Pensions, Belgium; Jörg Kukies, Federal Minister of Finance, Germany; Éric Lombard, Minister of Economy and Finance, France; Hon. John Mbadi Ngongó, Cabinet Secretary for the National Treasury & Economic Planning, Kenya; Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer, United Kingdom, and more, the summit will facilitate in-depth discussions on how countries are adapting to these challenges and building resilience in a rapidly changing world.

April 23-25 | Washington, DC | Learn More

Carbon-sucking data centers

Orbital Materials, a company founded by a former DeepMind researcher, is launching a first-of-its-kind effort to capture carbon from the air by piggybacking off the hot air emitted by data centers.

The pilot program, the company told Semafor exclusively, will use a new material that was designed with the help of artificial intelligence to work more efficiently in data center conditions. Orbital hopes Amazon — which is already a data center partner — and other hyperscalers will become customers for its new carbon capture technology. In the age of AI, data centers are consuming enormous amounts of energy, boosting emissions. Orbital Materials says the site of the pilot program, a data center in the UK operated by cloud computing company Civo, could do the opposite, resulting in a net reduction in carbon in the atmosphere.

Fossil-fueled AI

Energy demand for data centers is set to double globally by 2030, fueling an increase in coal and natural gas consumption.

In the US, the world’s top data center market, gas provides about 40% of total data center power demand, the International Energy Agency reported. In China, the number-two market, about half of data center power comes from coal. But even as they grow in numbers and size, and consume more fossil fuels, data centers will still be a drop in the bucket of global greenhouse gas emissions, rising from about 0.5% of all emissions today to no more than 1.4% by 2030. Meanwhile, other growing sectors, including industrial factories and EVs, will add more to global power demand than AI.

Shrinking shareholders

Shareholder resolutions filed at ExxonMobil this year, the first time in 25 years for the company to face no critiques from its investors. That resounding silence is probably due to the lawsuit the company filed last year against two climate activist investors, who ultimately decided to relent rather than face a financially crippling fight with one of the world’s biggest companies. The Securities and Exchange Commission is helping too, with new rules that make it easier for companies to dismiss shareholder resolutions instead of bringing them to a vote. Occidental and Valero Energy also face no resolutions this year, according to Bloomberg.

New Energy

• Ørsted, the world’s largest offshore wind power developer, is urging European leaders to step in and save the wind industry from a “downward spiral” made worse by Trump’s tariffs.
• And in an indication of how quickly that spiral could transpire, analysis firm Wood Mackenzie slashed its outlook for US wind projects by 40%.
• As if all that wasn’t enough, French utility EDF was ordered to shut down a wind farm that a court ruled was responsible for killing 160 birds and bats.

Fossil Fuels

• A durable peace deal between Ukraine and Russia would be damaging to the US LNG industry, Wood Mackenzie warned.
• The US approved a $4.7 billion loan to support construction of an LNG export terminal in Mozambique, part of an effort to crowd China and Russia out of African fossil fuel projects.

Tech

• Equinor is consolidating its renewable and gas-fired power businesses into a new unit that will focus on serving the electrification of society, especially the growth of data centers.

Politics & Policy

• Nature crimes — including illegal forms of mining, logging, fishing, wildlife trade, and land grabbing — are on the rise, often in connection with money laundering, drug trading, and human trafficking, the World Resources Institute reported.

EVs

• Volkswagen offset a sales slump in China by doubling its first-quarter sales in Europe.

COP30

• Based on the preparations underway, COP30 promises to be hot, chaotic, and frustrating for locals and international delegates alike. Can’t wait!

At their rallies and protests, in interviews and Senate speeches, Democrats are pivoting to offering themselves as defenders of American democracy and tradition — a new Tea Party rebelling against a new mad king, Semafor’s David Weigel reported.

“Arguing that the current administration is not just wrong, but tyrannical, had been fairly effective for conservatives as they resisted Barack Obama and Joe Biden,” Weigel wrote. “Democrats are now very comfortable with that script.”