Net Zero

1. Battery makers face trade war
2. Oil gets bearish
3. Reviving LNG talks
4. Wind deals get cheaper
5. AI extends fossil fuels

Winning Wall Street back to ESG, and winning Trump’s ear on ‘energy dominance.’

How a trade war with China helps (some) US companies

The escalating trade war between China and the US could boost some American battery manufacturers, amid what is otherwise a major setback for the US energy transition that will hit power utilities and electric vehicle makers that rely heavily on technology imported from China.

Grant Ray, vice president of global market strategy at the battery materials producer Group14, told Semafor the company’s silicon-based components are well insulated from rising tariffs on Chinese imports and retaliatory restrictions by China on exports of critical minerals, which Beijing tightened on Monday. Group14’s product particularly cuts out the need for Chinese graphite. Moreover, the company’s manufacturing strategy, which hinges on building relatively small, modular factories rather than multibillion-dollar gigafactories, will mitigate the impact of rising costs for steel and other construction materials.

“We’re perfectly positioned for a much more homegrown and controllable energy resource for batteries,” Ray said.

If the point of US President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign is ultimately to revitalize US manufacturing, few industries should be better poised to take advantage than battery producers.

Oil gets bearish

OPEC’s expectation in barrels per day for global oil demand growth this year, down 150,000 from its forecast a month ago. The cut is based on projections that US tariffs will lead to a global economic slowdown. And OPEC isn’t the only group feeling bearish about the oil market: The International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Administration both slashed their outlooks this week. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, warned that oil prices are likely to decline for at least the next two years, below the $60 point that’s a critical profit threshold for many US drillers.

Steve Ballmer, Founder, USAFacts and former CEO, Microsoft, will join top global leaders at Semafor’s 2025 World Economy Summit, taking place April 23-25, 2025, in Washington DC. As the first major gathering since the new US administration took office, the summit will feature on-the-record discussions with 100+ CEOs.

Bringing together leaders from both the public and private sectors — including congressional leaders and global finance ministers — the three-day summit will explore the forces shaping the global economy and geopolitics. Across twelve sessions, it will foster transformative, news-making conversations on how the world’s decision-makers are tackling economic growth in increasingly uncertain times.

April 23-25 | Washington, DC | Learn More

Reviving LNG talks

Europe is taking a closer look at US liquefied natural gas imports as a way out of a tariff showdown.

Europe’s LNG imports have increased sharply since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the EU’s subsequent pivot away from Russian pipeline gas, with the International Energy Agency reporting this week that the bloc’s LNG imports are poised to reach all-time highs this year.

US President Donald Trump has made clear that new LNG contracts are the quickest way for Europe to de-escalate the trade war. But analysts see a few problems: US LNG export terminals are already at capacity, there’s little real appetite among gas consumers in Europe for more LNG, and many European policymakers are wary of linking the region’s energy fate to a single supplier, a strategy that backfired disastrously with Russia. Still, the EU plans to reopen talks on increasing US gas purchases, Politico reported, and could adopt a strategy of aggregating demand between member states to buy at better rates.

Wind deals get cheaper

Trade wars haven’t increased the price of solar power contracts in the US, and wind deals are actually getting cheaper, a sign that the renewables industry is finding its footing again.

First-quarter data on renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs) from the intelligence firm LevelTen Energy shows that solar offtake prices in North America are flat, a sign that the market is holding out hope that US solar installers — who were already fairly well divorced from suppliers in China — won’t need to jack up their prices yet. Wind is a different story: PPA prices are falling by the fastest rate in at least five years, which LevelTen suggests means the industry is overcoming inflation and supply chain obstacles. Wind’s high production capacity makes it “particularly compelling for tech players seeking to power growing data center needs,” the report says.

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AI extends fossil fuels

The AI boom will require a lot more fossil fuels, BloombergNEF cautioned in a new report. The group’s latest outlook on energy trends to 2050 projects that data centers globally will use less power than EVs by that time, but more than air conditioning and heat pumps. About two-thirds of that power will come from gas and coal, the report projects, a finding at odds with what many utility and Big Tech execs say should be a starring role for renewables. Data centers will indeed drive the construction of a lot more renewables, the report says — but also extend the life of existing gas and coal plants. Meanwhile, the economy at large is still charging toward decarbonization. BloombergNEF expects renewables to provide two-thirds of the world’s power, while oil demand will begin to fall after 2032, although not nearly fast enough to meet the Paris Agreement’s global warming limits.

Fossil Fuels

• BP announced a major new oil discovery off the US Gulf Coast.
• China will continue to build new coal-fired power plants at least through 2027, government planners said, raising questions about the country’s ability to carry out its plan to phase down coal by 2030.
• Oil and gas companies in the North Sea are pushing through a series of mergers that will help cut their tax bills.
• The US wants to take control of a natural gas pipeline that crosses Ukraine, a contentious new addition to the proposed mineral deal between the two countries.

Finance

• BP is facing a backlash to a backlash: After some investors complained about the company’s green pivot, others are demanding it swing back toward climate action.
• An alliance for climate-minded banks will no longer require members to align their portfolios with the Paris Agreement.

Politics & Policy

• Opponents to Trump’s anti-climate agenda are experimenting with a new message: Gutting federal agencies will stall progress toward “energy dominance.”
• The law firm Paul Weiss, a longtime leader on ESG issues, scrubbed references to ESG from its website after being attacked by Trump.

Minerals & Mining

• Beijing suspended exports to the US of numerous rare earth minerals that are essential for semiconductors, batteries, and other industries.

EVs

• GM boss Mary Barra is fighting Tesla, China, tariffs, and customer preferences to make her $35 billion bet on EVs pay off.

Mark van Baal, founder of Follow This, an investor advocacy group.

John Barrasso keeps a leather whip in his Senate leadership office, though he hasn’t needed it to corral Republican votes — yet, reports Semafor’s Burgess Everett.

“When he needs to be tough, he’s tough; when he needs to be soft, he’s soft,” said Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio. Barrasso isn’t a nationally known figure like Ted Cruz or Rand Paul, but his role is vital to clinching Trump’s agenda — and when a final tax bill comes to the Senate floor, it will be Barrasso’s job to find 50 votes.