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Donald Trump has plans to smash the “deep state” and a conservative think tank has plans to help him͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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May 19, 2023
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Principals

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Steve Clemons
Steve Clemons

The Heritage Foundation is working to help Donald Trump (or whichever Republican can stop him) mount a conservative takeover of the federal bureaucracy — not just the top jobs, but the positions where expertise lies and real work gets done. Shelby Talcott has more on this ambitious project to create a “private LinkedIn for conservatives.”

When it comes to debt ceiling negotiations, some progressives and GOP hardliners are worried that good news for talks is bad news for what they each want out of them. As Joseph Zeballos-Roig reports, Thursday was the House Freedom Caucus’ turn to make some noise. The question is how many would vote against a compromise deal, and whether there’s enough backup from Democrats to preserve it.

On the global front, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai has negotiated a U.S.-Taiwan deal that would deepen trade and streamline regulatory compliance. China won’t be happy with the arrangement. Many in Congress are applauding, though some members tell Morgan Chalfant that going around their approval will make the agreement less durable.

I’m in Warsaw today for the 2nd edition of the Strategic Ark meeting organized by the Polish Institute of International Affairs. I’ll share more with you on Monday on the big takeaways, but the Ukraine conflict is the biggest of topics. Polish President Andrzej Duda told me last night that his country has given roughly about 1.5% of GDP to the Ukrainian cause.

Plus, I got a passionate one good text from Polish Institute of International Affairs Director Sławomir Dębski on whether Ukraine is destined to become a frozen conflict.

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Priorities

White House: The Biden administration is rolling out over 300 new sanctions on Russia and slapping export controls on 70 entities while President Biden is in Japan for the G7, according to a senior Biden administration official. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy is expected to be at the G7 this weekend to lobby for aid. Meanwhile, a White House official said Thursday evening that “steady progress is being made” on debt ceiling talks with congressional leaders.

Senate: Senators are out of town next week, but they’re being told to keep close: Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told his colleagues to be in a position to return to Washington within 24 hours at any given time if the White House and Speaker Kevin McCarthy reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling.

House: Negotiations on the government’s borrowing limit are expected to continue through the weekend. McCarthy wants to see a bill on the House floor next week.

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Need to Know
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Amid its ongoing feud with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Disney scrapped plans to open up a new $1 billion campus in Orlando on Thursday, citing “changing business conditions” in a memo to employees. The company didn’t mention DeSantis by name, but its spat with him “figured prominently” into the move, according to the New York Times. “Given the company’s financial straits, falling market cap and declining stock price, it is unsurprising that they would restructure their business operations and cancel unsuccessful ventures,” DeSantis spokesman Jeremy Redfern said in a statement.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif. is suffering from Ramsay Hunt syndrome, a condition that causes facial weakness or paralysis, following her bout with shingles. A spokesperson for the California senator confirmed the diagnosis after the New York Times reported that Feinstein hadn’t publicly disclosed the extent of her health conditions. Feinstein also suffered from encephalitis, which causes brain swelling, which her spokesperson said has since resolved. But the senator denied having encephalitis to CNN on Thursday, saying instead that she had “a really bad flu.”

Biden’s embattled federal appeals court nominee Michael Delaney withdrew himself from consideration on Thursday after it became clear he did not have the votes needed to advance out of the Senate Judiciary Committee. Delaney had faced criticism over his representation of a boarding school facing a sexual assault lawsuit, and come under fire from progressive groups for defending a New Hampshire law requiring minors to tell their parents before having an abortion while he was the state’s deputy attorney general.

China’s Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao is traveling to the U.S. next week and plans to meet with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, Chinese embassy officials told reporters on Thursday. The meetings, which have not been confirmed by the U.S. side, would be the latest sign of Washington trying to smooth over tensions with Beijing. Wang is expected to meet with Tai while she is in Detroit on the sidelines of an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting.

The Pentagon overvalued the cost of the weapons it is sending to Ukraine by at least $3 billion due to an accounting error that was disclosed to lawmakers on Thursday. The discovery may end up benefitting Kyiv, since it leaves more budget room for the U.S. to send gear to Kyiv.

Morgan Chalfant and Shelby Talcott

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Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: A bipartisan group of senators, including Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Josh Hawley, R-Mo., Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Steve Daines, R-Mont. are spearheading a new proposal to ban lawmakers from owning and trading individual stocks while serving in Congress.

Playbook: The pro-Trump Super PAC MAGA Inc. is out with a new ad targeting DeSantis on Fox News, CNN and Newsmax, as well as in Iowa and New Hampshire. The ad, with lyrics sung to the tune of “Old MacDonald Had a Farm,” hits DeSantis on his previous support for a national sales tax (“With a sales tax here, and a sales tax there / Here a tax, there a tax, everywhere a sales tax…”)

Axios: Speaking of DeSantis, the Florida governor is expected to announce his candidacy next Wednesday in Miami. Per Axios, his pitch to GOP primary voters is essentially to “Make America Florida,” using his home-state conservative cultural agenda as a blueprint for the country.

The Early 202: Debt ceiling talks are looming over the G7 meeting in Japan this week, Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass said in an interview with the Washington Post, because the situation is “a stark reminder that [the U.S. is] less predictable and reliable and dependable than we were.”

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Shelby Talcott

Heritage is looking for a few good conservatives to deconstruct the administrative state in 2025

REUTERS/Russell Cheyne

THE NEWS

Think tanks often act as an administration-in-waiting for presidents — a place to stash future appointees, generate policy plans, and flag promising young staffers. This year their role on the right is taking on outsized importance, however, as the 2024 Republican field has made overhauling the bureaucracy with more reliable allies one of their top stated goals.

That’s where the Heritage Foundation, alongside 50-plus conservative organizations in partner roles, hopes to come in. In April, the conservative nonprofit unveiled the start of a new $22 million project intended to staff the next Republican presidential administration from day one — a “private LinkedIn for conservatives,” as Paul Dans, the lead of “Project 2025,” described it.

Their work dovetails with the goals expressed in Donald Trump’s calls to “destroy the deep state,” for example, and his plans to fire and replace federal workers en masse. Rivals like Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy have already accused Trump of not going far enough as president in rooting out ineffective or disloyal appointees and civil servants.

“What fundamentally unites our coalition is deconstructing the administrative state,” Dans told Semafor.

Besides the database the group is continuing to compile, the conservative think-tank’s ambitious effort is comprised of three additional pillars: A policy book for the next administration, an organized training effort dubbed the “Presidential Administration Academy,” and eventually a “180-day game plan of regulations and executive orders that a president could sign on day one,” Dans explained.

They’ve even recently begun taking the show on the road — some of the project’s top members have already visited Hillsdale College and Florida International University — to try and attract more promising young conservatives to Washington. Eventually, they hope to begin hosting roundtables and debates featuring some of the experts involved in the project’s policy book, and are even considering setting up posts along the campaign trail in key early primary states.

SHELBY’S VIEW

“Project 2025” is, at its core, a response to Trump’s win back in 2016. In an interview, Dans said how his upset victory “took Conservative, Inc., by surprise” and thus the movement was unprepared to properly help him as he took office.  Trump, who was superstitious about preparing a transition before winning, struggled to fill in the gaps himself.

“They certainly hadn’t done a lot of homework to support them,” Dans said, later adding: “I think we acknowledge, if nothing else, Biden was prepared to go in there.”

Heritage’s efforts also tie into ongoing conservative allegations of “weaponization” of government officials against their priorities (which are fiercely disputed by Democrats.) This is perhaps the most organized effort thus far to respond by trying to pack the executive branch with staff of their choosing.

Prior to this, the most aggressive attempt came from Trump, who issued an executive order dubbed “Schedule F” late in his term, with guidance from former Heritage staffers. The proposal — reversed by President Biden — sought to allow the White House to get rid of huge numbers of civil servants, who are typically protected against the whims of a new president. It’s now a key part of his plans for a second term.

“I think any candidate is going to have to, at a minimum, embrace a Schedule F sort of major reform,” Dans told Semafor. “We’re embarking on the 100 year reform period here in the United States.”

Heritage is also distributing its dense 887-page policy booklet, which covers topics ranging from, as Dans put it, “ending the woke military” to establishing “full spectrum energy dominance,” to 2024 presidential hopefuls plus some notable politicians. They’ve passed it on to Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin as well as Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., a critic of COVID-19 policies and a prominent spreader of anti-government conspiracy theories, and former Democratic Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard.

ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT

Trump’s fiery denunciations of appointees and staff who have defied his orders — including those who testified about his behavior as part of impeachment trials and federal investigations — have some observers worried his plans would be a step toward silencing his critics (or a Trump-like president’s) and enabling corruption.

“The last thing we need is for a president to fire dedicated and experienced public servants and replace them with sycophants and grifters without the skills to carry out the functions of government within the rule of law,” Sen. Ben Cardin, D-Md. said last year after introducing legislation with other Democrats to try and prevent any sort of “Schedule F” executive orders from going into effect in the future.

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Default Watch

Conservatives stand athwart debt ceiling talks and yell stop

REUTERS/Nathan Howard

Progressive Democrats spent much of this week on Capitol Hill scrambling to regain control over debt ceiling talks after President Biden signaled he might be open to some key Republican demands.

Thursday offered a sort of mirror image, with conservatives raising their own alarms after House Speaker Kevin McCarthy offered his first truly upbeat assessment of negotiations. “I can see where a deal can come together,” the GOP leader told reporters, adding that he was hopeful an agreement could be struck over the weekend, with a bill reaching the floor next week.

“I just believe where we were a week ago and where we are today is a much better place because we’ve got the right people in the room discussing it in a very professional manner,” he said.

GOP hardliners were less sunny, as the reality seemed to set in that negotiations were headed for a compromise that would sacrifice some of their priorities. The House Freedom Caucus issued a statement urging against scaling back the GOP debt limit bill, and seemingly called on McCarthy to halt his talks altogether. “There should be no further discussion until the Senate passes the [House’s] legislation,” they said in a statement.

“No more discussion on watering it down,” the group tweeted for emphasis. “Period.”

In a slightly confusing turn, the group appeared to walk back its statement — or at least heavily caveat it — later in the day. “We’re not saying you shouldn’t continue to negotiate, but we can’t be the buyer and the seller in the same agreement,” Freedom Caucus chair Scott Perry told CBS News.

The waffling drew some derision. “Republicans have the upper hand,” a House GOP aide told Semafor. “However this nonsense does not help us maintain that upper hand.”

At least some Republicans continued to insist McCarthy wouldn’t budge from the House’s bill. “I think the speaker’s gonna hold the line,” Rep. Andrew Clyde, a McCarthy holdout, told Semafor. “We are not going to deviate from this.”

And a few GOP members even seemed ready to up their ambitions, suggesting that McCarthy should try to insert the House’s recently passed border security bill into a debt deal.

Texas Rep. Chip Roy, a leader of the Freedom Caucus, said he’d be willing to consider a debt limit extension past the 2024 presidential election if the border bill — which the White House has already promised to veto — was tacked onto the final package. “Everything has a price,” he told Semafor.

The noises from the Freedom Caucus were a reminder that any deal capable of passing both the House and Democrat-controlled Senate risks shedding a large chunk of Republican support. The question is how many of his members McCarthy will ultimately be willing to lose, and how many Democrats will be comfortable backing a compromise that could involve some painful cuts to federal programs when many would have preferred Biden not negotiate at all.

“My impression here is that you’re going to reach a narrower agreement with some face-saving measures and no triumphalism,” Rep. Richard Neal of Massachusetts, the ranking Democrat on the House Ways and Means panel, said.

Joseph Zeballos-Roig

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Foreign Influence
WikimediaCommons

The U.S. and Taiwan say they’re ready to sign an initial agreement strengthening trade ties in the coming weeks, the latest step in an increasingly tight relationship between the two governments.

Because it falls short of a full free trade pact, the deal won’t require an up or down vote from Congress. But U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai’s office said it would help U.S. businesses send more goods to Taiwan, while streamlining regulatory procedures so products move more smoothly.

“We look forward to continuing these negotiations and finalizing a robust and high-standard trade agreement,” Tai said in a statement.

The announcement is almost sure to be met with anger by China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory and has reacted furiously to signs of the still-technically unofficial relationship between Washington and Taipei growing stronger.

Building up trade with Taiwan has been a hot topic on Capitol Hill, particularly within the House’s select committee on China, whose members met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in California earlier this year. Earlier this week, the committee’s chairman, Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., told reporters he’d like to see Congress pass a tax agreement with Taiwan as a way to stop the double taxation of U.S. and Taiwanese businesses.

A source close to the China select committee told Semafor that while the panel welcomes the Biden administration’s agreement with Taiwan, advancing it without congressional approval “will harm their durability and limit any effectiveness in providing trading partners meaningful alternatives to deeper trade and economic ties to China.”

Morgan Chalfant

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One Good Text

Sławomir Dębski is Director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs headquartered in Warsaw.

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Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

WHAT THE LEFT ISN’T READING: Republican senators wrote to Anheuser-Busch calling for an investigation by the Beer Institute’s Code Compliance Review Board and requested documents regarding Bud Light’s partnership with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney, alleging the beer company may have been marking to underage individuals.

WHAT THE RIGHT ISN’T READING: A bipartisan House bill would prevent members of Congress from getting paid in the event of a U.S. default or government shutdown.

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— Steve Clemons

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