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In today’s edition, we visit a farm in southern England that is betting supermarkets like Tesco will͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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May 24, 2023
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Net Zero

Climate
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Tim McDonnell
Tim McDonnell

Hi everyone, welcome back to Net Zero.

Ruminants like cows and sheep are responsible for at least one-third of global methane emissions, so curbing their farts and burps is one of the world’s most pressing climate priorities. Cutting back livestock methane in the short term will buy the global economy more time to tackle trickier sources of emissions from other sectors. Today, Xiaoying You has a dispatch from a farm in southern England that is breeding low-methane sheep — and is betting that Tesco and other major food retailers will prioritize climate-friendly meat.

Also today: The price of lithium is rebounding, and Google is using artificial intelligence to predict floods up to a week in advance.

If you like what you’re reading, spread the word.

Warmups
REUTERS/Ron Bousso

Security guards shielded Shell’s CEO and board members from protesters attempting to rush the stage during the company’s annual shareholder meeting on Tuesday. The climate activists succeeded in disrupting the event. But they did not convince investors to adopt more stringent emissions targets. The resolution only won about 20% of shareholder votes.

ExxonMobil entered the global race to produce lithium, paying about $100 million for rights to mine a plot of land in Arkansas. It’s a relatively small investment for the oil and gas major. But it signals a bet that mining for critical minerals, which hews fairly close to the company’s traditional extractive business model, could turn a better profit than renewable energy systems.

More than 130 U.S. and European lawmakers called for the head of the COP28 climate summit to be replaced. In a joint letter, they said fossil fuel companies held “undue influence” over the negotiations, which will be held in Dubai this year, and urged the removal of Sultan Al Jaber — the head of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company — as COP28 president.

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Evidence

The price of lithium rebounded in May after a multi-month collapse triggered mostly by oversupply in Chinese electric-vehicle battery factories. Those factories are now restocking, EV sales are strong, and lithium production in China, Chile, Australia, and Namibia has stayed flat. As a result, Citibank analysts expect the price to rise another 40% by the end of the year.

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Xiaoying You

UK farmers are breeding ‘ultra-low emission’ sheep

Wallpaper Flare

THE NEWS

On a sunny spring day at Rob and Jo Hodgkins’ farm in southern England, sheep were being led, one by one, into metal boxes resembling oversized washing machines. Each of the 120 animals stayed in the chambers for 50 minutes — to have their emissions measured.

The tracking program is the first step in a long journey for the Hodgkinses, who are trying to breed “ultra-low emission” sheep, ones that naturally produce less methane, a potent greenhouse gas that has more than 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period.

Like other ruminants — hoofed plant-eating mammals such as cattle, goats, and buffalos — sheep belch out methane while digesting food. Up until now research has focused on cows, which emit the most methane. But scientists in New Zealand have demonstrated that methane emissions are in fact a heritable trait among sheep, a finding that serves as the inspiration for the Hodgkinses’ attempt.

XIAOYING’S VIEW

When I went to visit Rob, I expected him to extol the environmental virtues of his efforts. He and his wife are, after all, the first independent farmers in the U.K. to try to breed low-emitting sheep. Instead, he talked me through the commercial imperative, and that makes sense: As with much of the fight against climate change, businesses have to be able to turn a profit to survive and make the investments necessary to reduce their emissions.

Farmers like the Hodgkinses show that the livestock sector — which employs 1.3 billion people worldwide — can be part of the solution to the pressing problem of livestock emissions.

Rob, 43, believes that offsetting carbon emissions and breeding low-emitting livestock will be “a large part of agriculture” in five to 10 years, “a necessity” prioritized by supermarkets and customers. “The purpose of the project fundamentally is to make sure our farm is secure and profitable in the future,” he told me.

His farm keeps 2,300 sheep and produces roughly 70,000 kilograms of sheep meat every year. It is a supplier to the British supermarket giant Tesco, which has pledged to be net zero across its value chains by 2050.

The Hodgkinses, who are working on the breeding project with Agri-EPI Centre, a U.K. government-funded organization, and researchers from Scotland’s Rural College, believe an early start is crucial.

“Whilst at the minute no one is paying us to do this, I believe in 10 years, there will be,” Rob said. “But in 10 years’ time, we will be 10 years behind, so we need to start now.”

KNOW MORE

Rob and Jo are able to run this project largely because their sheep are genetically related to a breed in New Zealand, where scientists have spent the past 15 years identifying and breeding sheep with low-methane genetic traits.

The New Zealand program found that after three generations of selective breeding — pairing low-emitting sheep with other low-emissions ones — the lowest-emitting offspring produced nearly 13% less methane than the highest emitters, per kilogram of feed eaten.

Ruminants alone are responsible for around 30% of global methane emissions, and more than 90% of those emissions are burped out. The methane emissions from ruminants largely depend on how much they eat. Compared to sheep, cattle are a bigger source of methane, and more efforts have been made to deal with their burps, ranging from selective breeding to vaccines.

Ermias Kebreab, an animal scientist and professor at the University of California, Davis, told me that scientists have also reduced cattle emissions by targeting the ingredients in their feed. By mixing seaweed into beef cattle’s feed, for instance, his team found they could slash their emissions by as much as 82%.

QUOTABLE

“We need as many tools in the box as we can for being able to reduce methane emissions from ruminant livestock production and safeguard food security at the same time,” Nicola Lambe, a researcher from Scotland’s Rural College, said.

ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT

Rather than trying to reduce emissions from meat, a more efficient way to cut greenhouse gas emissions would be to stop eating meat, or at least drastically cut its consumption: That’s the recommendation from a 2019 U.N. report. “We don’t want to tell people what to eat,” an expert on the committee that drafted the report told Nature. “But it would indeed be beneficial, for both climate and human health, if people in many rich countries consumed less meat, and if politics would create appropriate incentives to that effect.”

THE VIEW FROM NEW ZEALAND

Beef + Lamb New Zealand, an industry group involved in the sheep emissions program, plans to build a genetic evaluation system that will allow all Kiwi sheep farmers to select sheep that produce less methane. So far, more than 20,000 sheep have been measured for their methane emissions in the country, and the number is growing.

NOTABLE

  • Last year, New Zealand became the first country in the world to unveil a plan to tax sheep and cow burps in a bid to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but the move has sparked concern from some farmers over the future of their livelihood, as Rachel Pannett reported for The Washington Post.
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One Good Text

Paul Bledsoe, strategic advisor for climate, energy, and economics at the Progressive Policy Institute.

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Semafor Stat

Barrels of oil per day that will be processed by a new refinery in Nigeria, commissioned in Lagos this week, that will be the largest in Africa. Despite being the continent’s top producer of crude oil, Nigeria spends more than $20 billion per year to import gasoline and other refined products.

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Green Shoots
Rawpixel

Google is using artificial intelligence to forecast floods up to a week in advance. Satellite images, weather forecasts, river gauge readings, and other data points feed a machine-learning algorithm that Google engineers have been building since 2018. The algorithm, FloodHub, flags potentially dangerous riverine floods, which are becoming more frequent and severe because of climate change. (Coastal floods aren’t covered yet.)

This week the service launched in 60 new countries, including most of Europe, Africa, and South America, in addition to the 20 it already covered. The platform also extended its forecast range from 48 hours to seven days. Over time, Google’s AI flood models have gotten better at learning river hydrology patterns and projecting floods from a minimum of environmental cues. This makes it possible to produce forecasts for countries in Africa and South America where weather stations and river monitoring stations are few and far between, and on-the-ground data is scarce, said Yossi Matias, Google’s VP of engineering and research and crisis response lead.

The forecasts aren’t yet granular enough to predict flood levels in specific parts of cities, but they’re accurate enough to tip off local officials, first responders, and aid groups that a flood is coming. In addition to covering more countries, Matias’s team is also working on an AI-driven service to predict wildfire risks in the U.S., Australia, and elsewhere.

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— Tim (with Xiaoying You, Prashant Rao, and Jeronimo Gonzalez)

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