Africa

1. Bondholders give okay
2. First anniversary
3. Five more years
4. An ANC referendum

Also, researching groundwater in the Horn of Africa.

Hello! Welcome to Semafor Africa, where we’re watching South Africa’s elections closely. Alexis is out in Johannesburg this week and has just filed his first overview on what to expect. It’s obvious why we would be paying special attention to South Africa at this time. It is the continent’s most advanced economy, and one that has a unique story for many of us who became adults as the country emerged from the dark days of apartheid rule. We all feel we have a small stake in South Africa’s success. But many South Africans — especially young people who have grown up in a free and democratic country since 1994 — are much more clear-eyed about the state of things.

Nearly one in two young workers are unemployed amid a persistently sluggish economy and a myriad of other challenges. It likely means (based on multiple polls) the ruling ANC will lose its dominant majority in parliament. There has been some panicky reporting and headlines about this, but ultimately this is a good thing. This is what’s supposed to happen. It’s good for South Africa and good for democracy in Africa. The concerns that a fringe party might take power and move far left or far right are overblown, again because democratic forces will keep things in check from either side. To be clear, too much upheaval can create uncertainty, but there is nothing wrong with the people of South Africa making clear, as they say in Alexis’ report, that “things can’t go on like this.”

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Zambia gets closer to the end

The share of bondholders backing Zambia’s restructuring proposal for its $3 billion in outstanding international bonds, according to a statement issued by the nation’s finance minister on Tuesday. The voting for the proposal is set to close on May 30, with the government expecting its approval. Zambia, which was the first African country to default on its eurobonds in 2020, has been reworking its debt under the G20 Common Framework, which brought together official creditors including China and France. Under the plan, bondholders will swap three existing debt instruments into two amortizing bonds.

How Nigeria’s economy cratered in President Tinubu’s first year

LAGOS — Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu vowed to usher in an era of renewed hope when he was inaugurated into office a year ago. Twelve months later, the prices of food and fuel have doubled, driving loud discontent.

Tinubu’s first anniversary, on Wednesday, comes as the country is set to slip two places to fourth on the ranking of Africa’s largest economies, according to the IMF.

The president had promised to deliver higher economic growth, a million new jobs and security reforms. On his first day, he removed a decades-long subsidy on petrol that had made it relatively affordable for consumers. He charged the central bank’s new leadership to pursue a market-driven exchange rate. The bank has hiked the benchmark lending rate by 7.5 percentage points since February to tame inflation. But Nigeria’s inflation has climbed to a three-decade high instead — up to 33% from 22% over the past year.

“It has felt like a very different country because things are so hard,” Olusegun Akinsanya, 53, a father of three who works at a furniture company in Lagos, told Semafor Africa. His employer moved from paying fixed salaries to a per contract basis in response to the state of the economy, he said. “I don’t have any hope in the president and he doesn’t have any plan for us.”

The largest union for Nigerian government workers has demanded a tripling of the $20 national minimum monthly salary to match the fast rising cost of living. The government last week offered an increase that falls short of doubling the minimum, which the union rejected.

Burkina Faso junta staying longer than planned

Burkina Faso’s military government announced it would extend junta rule for five years. Its leader, Ibrahim Traoré, will be able to contest the next presidential election, the state broadcaster said. The military had previously promised that it would hold democratic elections after it took power in January 2022, but Traoré, 36, has now been declared president and “supreme leader” of the nation’s military. Government appointments will now be based on “patriotism,” rather than the quotas that were previously used to assign assembly seats, the BBC reported. A military coup ousted former President Roch Kaboré in January 2022, and in September that year, Traoré, led a second ouster of Kaboré’s government, arguing that it had not been successful in responding to jihadist insurgents that have targeted the country since 2015.

Introducing Mixed Signals, a new podcast from Semafor Media presented by Think with Google. Co-hosted by Semafor’s own Ben Smith, and renowned podcaster and journalist Nayeema Raza, every Friday, Mixed Signals pulls back the curtain on the week’s key stories around media, revealing how money, access, culture, and politics shape everything you read, watch, and hear.

Whether you’re a media insider or simply curious about what drives today’s headlines, Mixed Signals is the perfect addition to your media diet. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

South Africa decides

The faces and slogans of South African political parties are plastered across street lights on the streets of Johannesburg.

The signs represent the final push in campaigns ahead of the country’s May 29 election. The vote is dominating conversations with South Africans gripped by a collective sense of excitement at the chance to have their say in the way their country is run.

Several polls predict the ruling African National Congress could fail to secure 50% of the 400 seats in the National Assembly. That would mean the ANC — which has held power for 30 years — losing its parliamentary majority and being forced to form a coalition government with smaller parties.

The upcoming vote will be the seventh general election since 1994. Voters will cast their ballots in national and provincial elections.

The ANC has seen its support, and share of the vote, fall over the last 30 years. Back in 1994, it won 62.5% of the National Assembly’s seats with Nelson Mandela as president. In the last election, in 2019, it secured 57.5% of the vote.

Since then, the party’s reputation has been hit as unemployment sits at around 33%, which rises to 45.5% for people aged between 15 and 34. It has further been damaged by rising crime rates and corruption scandals. Many voters simply want constant electricity — rather than the rolling power rationing blackouts known as “loadshedding” — and access to clean water.

The ANC’s falling popularity was reflected in recent polling by Gallup that showed its approval ratings have hit a record low.

— Alexis Akwagyiram in Johannesburg

Governance

🇰🇲 Comoros President Azali Assoumani was sworn in on Sunday following his reelection to another five-year term with 63% of the vote in January.

Geopolitics

🇰🇪 🇺🇬 Kenya and Uganda resumed cross-border trading after their presidents signed an agreement to end discriminatory taxes, levies, and import duties for goods originating from another East African country.

🇰🇪 An advance team of Kenyan police officials which arrived in Haiti last week was set to return this week following logistical delays. Sources in Kenya said crucial resources are needed before deployment of the first 200 police officers can take place.

Commodities

🇬🇭 Ghana’s cocoa regulator will borrow up to $1.5 billion by September to finance cocoa purchases in the 2024 to 2025 financial year and compensate for low output, sources told Reuters.

Tech

🇰🇪 Microsoft said it would support the development of an artificial intelligence model in Kiswahili as part of it’s $1 billion investment in Kenya’s tech ecosystem.

🇿🇼 Zimbabwe became the eighth African country to license Starlink to provide satellite internet services, President Emmerson Mnangagwa announced on Saturday. He said that Starlink would partner with a local company IMC Communications.

🇺🇬 MTN Uganda said it would sell shares left over from its 2021 initial public offering to local investors to expand local ownership and comply with regulatory requirements.

Deals

🇳🇬 Paystack led a group of Nigerian tech companies in acquiring Brass a banking startup for small businesses in Nigeria.

🇬🇭 Ghanaian firm Injaro Investment Advisors acquired Outdoor Holding, owner of Ghanaian advertising company DDP Outdoor.

🇨🇩 Persistent Energy, an investor in climate solutions, made an investment in Altech, an electric vehicles provider in DR Congo, to enable the latter’s expansion.

By harnessing groundwater, countries in the Horn of Africa can alleviate the impact of drought and ensure food security, climate change researchers say. About 150 million people in the region were recently affected by the worst drought in almost half a century and the floods that followed, which left them at the risk of acute food insecurity and potential famine. To forestall the extended impact, the governments of Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, South Sudan and Uganda, alongside three United Nations agencies, launched the Groundwater Access Facility earlier this month. The initiative will see the countries collaborate on groundwater mapping and data sharing, and establish ways to use new and advanced renewable energy and water treatment technologies.

• Semafor is launching a media podcast.
• AI companies freeze out partisan media.
• Trump promises Libertarians a cabinet slot.

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— Yinka, Alexis, Alexander Onukwue, Martin Siele, Muchira Gachenge, and Jenna Moon