Getty Images/Mike Windle for Vanity Fair THE SCENE On a recent afternoon in San Francisco, I chatted with a prominent venture capitalist who is bullish on AI. But he wouldn’t tell me which companies he’s investing in. They’re all in “stealth” mode, he said. Why? The ideas are too easy to copy. In the mad rush to ride the AI boom, one of the main concerns keeping investors up at night is a single word: defensibility. The ease with which startups can leverage AI may transform industries, but it also means there’s little barrier to entry, making even the best ideas prone to imitation. A related fear that has reverberated in Silicon Valley is that AI startups may require significantly fewer resources than in the past. There is talk of one-person companies worth more than a billion dollars. (Though really, it’s looking more like trios: A coder, a salesperson, and a designer.) That could leave venture capitalists flush with capital and not enough attractive places to spend it. Worse, that means the most successful startups can be challenged by the smallest of competitors. Some venture capitalists even worry their own profession may go away. One point of view shared with me is that much of the process could be automated by AI itself, removing the middleman that stands between big institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds, and entrepreneurs themselves. Social Capital’s Chamath Palihapitiya tried something like this roughly six years ago. Today, he says he doesn’t believe AI can totally automate what VCs do, but it could do a lot. “I would think an AI can ingest the entire corpus of operational data of a company and spit out a rank of how that company is doing and a relatively accurate sense of how other companies like it have done in the 1-3 years from that point. This would help VCs figure out what to pay for a deal,” he wrote in an email to Semafor. James Currier, general partner at the VC firm NFX, said AI and large language models, in particular, will level the playing field in tech investing. “So much of what a venture capitalist does — reading, summarizing, and ranking — is also what LLMs already do well,” he said. “Making the investment decision and winning the deal will be more of what a VC will do. This will happen very quickly.” To develop their investing theses, startup backers are turning to tried and true ideas, like network effects, the phenomenon in which a product or service becomes more valuable as more people use it. They’re looking for proprietary datasets and products with first-mover advantage that gain traction so quickly that they become entrenched in the industries they serve. For Reed’s View and the rest of the story, read here. |