Americana

Can a Republican survive Trump’s wrath? Bob Good is about to find out.

THE SCENE

POWHATAN, Va. – Steve Bannon had a mission: Convince Republican voters, just this once, not to listen to Donald Trump.

It was Friday evening, one day after a federal judge ordered Bannon — Trump’s former White House adviser turned MAGA podcast mogul — to prison for defying subpoenas from the Jan. 6 committee. He was spending it in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District, rallying with Rep. Bob Good, the chair of the hardline House Freedom Caucus who had thrilled Bannon and other anti-establishment Republicans by helping to bring down Kevin McCarthy’s speakership.

But Good had made the grave political miscalculation of supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for president, a “stab in the back” that convinced Trump to endorse his primary opponent, state Sen. John McGuire. The incumbent had planned to run as an America First establishment-smasher; he and Bannon had to explain why Trump, who they called the greatest president of their lifetime, wasn’t with him this time.

“We have unconditional support for President Trump,” said Bannon. “President Trump needs backup. We’re here today because these heroes fought McCarthy and the cartel and the establishment to a standstill.”

DAVE’S VIEW

For the better part of eight years, Trump loyalty has been a shortcut to Republican victory, and disloyalty has been enough to sink an incumbent who’d otherwise be safe. Good’s race is a high-profile and multi-million dollar test of whether any amount of MAGA-credibility can overcome the black mark of committing a transgression against the former president.

It’s also one of several upcoming primaries set for the coming weeks where, in a role reversal, more establishment-friendly candidates are leveraging Trump’s approval to their advantage. McGuire has received help from McCarthy himself, who, working through a set of PACs, has been working on what Bannon and Good call a “revenge tour.”

Trump, meanwhile, has backed several more mainstream choices over Freedom Caucus-style conservatives, aligning himself with likely winners over candidates who promise to kill the federal Leviathan. Last week, Trump-endorsed Montana state Auditor Troy Downing beat the candidate supported by Good, and will sail into a safe seat. In North Dakota, the former president endorsed state public service commissioner Julie Fedorchak over Rick Becker, a conservative who aligns with the Freedom Caucus; the Club for Growth quickly ended its support for Becker.

On Monday, Trump endorsed South Carolina Rep. William Timmons for re-election over Adam Morgan, a leader of the state legislature’s Freedom Caucus who’d run to Timmons’ right and promised to defend the ex-president from a weaponized legal system.

In Virginia, McGuire has portrayed Good’s willingness to block compromise bills — which put him at odds with McCarthy, but won him the adoration of commentators like Bannon — as a potential threat to the Trump restoration.

“In 2016, Trump had the House and the Senate, but he had a few disloyal Republicans that kept rolling marbles under his feet, and trying to stop or slow down his agenda,” McGuire told Virginia radio talker John Fredericks after he scored the Trump endorsement. “We can’t have this. We need to get it right. Trump is our last hope.”

Trump hasn’t entirely thrown his weight behind the establishment. In South Carolina today, Rep. Nancy Mace is counting on her hard-won Trump endorsement to hold off a McCarthy-backed challenger, for instance.

If Good had his way, a House Freedom Caucus co-founder would be en route to the presidency. But DeSantis never won a single primary. Instead of a fellow traveler who would fight with them on everything, Good and his colleagues got a nominee who wants to win, and is comfortable tossing ideologues overboard if they hurt him. And they now face an electorate that may care more about fealty to Trump than old conservative litmus tests on issues.

KNOW MORE

That fact has been magnified in the current crop of primaries, which have been dominated by the reaction to Trump’s felony conviction, with candidates jockeying over who would do more to protect the former president.

​​“Every Republican issues a statement of how bad it is, and then they don’t do anything,” Morgan, the South Carolina candidate Trump chose not to endorse, told Charlie Kirk on his podcast last week. “They don’t actually shut down the border. They don’t actually go at the budgets of these agencies that are undermining our constitutional republic.”

Good himself reacted to the indictment with all the requisite outrage. “This is a bogus charge, this is a bogus court, this is a corrupt judge,” he told supporters at another rally last week, with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. “This is Soviet-style: Show me the man, I’ll show you the crime. This is going after your opponents like a third world country, like a banana republic.” Bannon’s rally put an exclamation point on that, as the War Room host warned that Trump’s enemies were “either going to imprison or bankrupt all of us.”

Good’s opponents have nonetheless savaged him as a weak defender of the president. Last week, when McGuire campaigned with Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene — who was pushed out of the Freedom Caucus — she mangled the history behind the DeSantis endorsement, claiming that Good backed Trump’s challenger “the very day that Alvin Bragg, that scumbag in New York, indicted President Trump.” Bragg indicted Trump on April 4, 2023; Good endorsed DeSantis 35 days later. Details, details; her point was that a Republican ready to pick his ideology over Trump was dangerous.

“We will never forget when Jeff Sessions recused himself,” said Greene. “We will never forget the Mueller investigation that carried on, and Republicans stepped back and allowed it to happen. We will never forget how they impeached President Trump wrongfully.”

Pro-McGuire forces had delivered this warning for months. Any criticism of Trump by Good was a warning that he might undermine a second term. In late January, as the DeSantis campaign wound down, a semi-anonymous YouTube channel started uploading video of Good explaining himself, in public and private comments.

“I was concerned about the legal persecution, the abuse of power towards our president and how that would hurt him, potentially, in a general election,” Good told constituents in a town hall meeting. In another clip, recorded without Good’s awareness, he explained that DeSantis had a better record than Trump on guns (“Trump did red flag laws when he was president”) and abortion (“Trump is saying we’re gonna need to back off”).

McGuire’s allies stapled those quotes to Good’s forehead. It doesn’t matter if a critique of Trump is right; what matters is that the congressman was disloyal. “Bob Good won’t be electable when we get done with him,” Trump campaign strategist Chris LaCivita said in January. The day after the Manhattan conviction, Trump’s campaign issued a cease-and-desist order to stop Good from displaying lawn signs that link the men together.

Good’s campaign hadn’t played along. On Friday, Powhatan’s courthouse lawn was surrounded by campaign signs that looked, until further examination, like endorsements: “Republican TRUMP/ BOB GOOD/ Keeping America Great!” (A couple walking past me and the rally speculated that Trump had chosen a running mate named “Bob Good.”)

At the microphone, Good told stories about the Freedom Caucus’ fight to stop spending and oust McCarthy. Navigating pro-Trump media, he needed to explain that the president made a mistake by opposing him — without ever saying those words.

“Are you back in good standing with the boss?” former Trump advisor Sebastian Gorka asked Good on his radio show earlier that day.

“I’m doing everything I can to help the president win,” said the congressman. “He’s the best president of my lifetime.”

NOTABLE

• In the American Conservative, Bradley Delvin asks why Good really became a Trump target: “the more moderate factions of the party are trying to minimize conservative’s electoral success.”
• In The New York Times, Richard Fausset covers a primary where one Republican apologized for his actions on Jan. 6, a move that has gone out of fashion. “His website recently noted his prosecution… as proof that he has ‘always stood for the conservative movement.’”
• For NBC News, Bridget Bowman and Ben Kamisar run down all the Trump endorsement tests in today’s primaries, which can “further demonstrate his influence among the GOP base and shape the future of the party.”

Here’s a quick rundown of the races to watch today.

South Carolina. There are competitive races in half of the state’s GOP-controlled House seats, including challenges in the 1st and 4th congressional districts, and a seven-way race in the open 3rd Congressional District.

In the 1st, Nancy Mace is facing former state health director Catherine Templeton — the most expensive primary in the country so far this year, with $5 million of outside cash battering both candidates. Mace narrowly avoided a runoff in 2022, and the presence of a third candidate this time could, if Mace falls short, set up a rematch in two weeks. In the 3rd, Trump’s backed Mark Burns, who ran for another seat in 2018 and lost a 2022 challenge to Rep. William Timmons; Timmons is facing his own challenge in the 4th district, and could be helped by Democrats who don’t have a competitive race there, after he ran ads attacking challenger Adam Morgan for supporting a strict abortion ban. Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern.

Ohio. Voters in the 6th Congressional District, a safely Republican stretch of the Ohio River Valley, will pick a successor to ex-Rep. Bill Johnson, who quit in January to take over Youngstown State. Republican State Sen. Michael Rulli is heavily favored in a district that backed Trump by 29 points in 2020; polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern.

Maine. Republicans are making their fourth run at Rep. Jared Golden this year; former Rep. Bruce Poliquin, who lost to Golden twice, is no longer running. Trump endorsed state Rep. Austin Theriault, a NASCAR racer, in March over Rep. Michael Soboleski, a veteran, businessman, and amateur actor who’s been dismissive of his opponent. (“Recruiting racecar drivers, yeah, that’s nice.”) Republicans and voters not registered with a party can cast ballots, and polls close at 8 p.m.

North Dakota. Gov. Doug Burgum’s retirement convinced Rep. Kelly Armstrong to run for his open seat, and created a GOP battle for the state’s single congressional district. Burgum endorsed Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller over Armstrong, and the five-way House primary has become a race between Julie Fedorchak and Rick Becker. Also on the ballot — a maximum age limit for candidates. There’s no party registration at all here, and any North Dakota adult can vote in the primary; polls close at 7 p.m. local time, and the state’s split between Central Time and Mountain Time.

Nevada. Twelve Republicans are running for their US Senate nomination here, but national Republicans have been backing Afghanistan war veteran Sam Brown for months, and just coaxed Trump into endorsing him. Brown, who ran for the 2022 nomination and lost, has behaved like a front-runner, skipping debates with former Trump ambassador Jeff Gunter and failed 2022 Secretary of State candidate Jim Marchant. Republicans will pick their nominees in southern Nevada’s three House seats, too, though the national party isn’t targeting any of them yet after falling short last cycle; Trump’s been most invested in the 4th Congressional District, endorsing former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee. Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, 10 p.m. Eastern.

Sheri Biggs for Congress, “Healing Our Nation.” In the race to replace Rep. Jeff Duncan, Biggs has loaned herself more than $300,000, helping her get on the air and stay there with her own memorable ads. This one portrays a conversation between the candidate and a broken-down Uncle Sam, depressed at the state of America: “Half the country believes that murdering unborn babies and mutilating children is somehow virtuous.” Comforting Sam, Biggs says that “only Jesus” can heal the country, but she can help.

American Prosperity Alliance, “This is A War.” Built to beat the Republicans who ended Kevin McCarthy’s brief speakership, the APA’s ads hit conservative incumbents from their right. This one, targeting Rep. Nancy Mace, cites her protest votes against spending bills as votes not to “fund ICE” or finish border wall construction, all while “our country is being invaded.”

We Stand With Reichert, “Reichert Abortion Position.” Republicans haven’t won a race for governor of Washington since 1980, and ex-Rep. Dave Reichert, who held onto a Democratic-trending House seat for years, is taking time to explain where he breaks from his party. “I will not change Washington law on this issue,” says Reichert, “because I do not believe any politician, regardless of personal belief, has the right to make that decision for any woman.” Two years ago, New York Rep. Lee Zeldin tried a similar tactic, a straight-to-camera ad promising not to interfere with the state’s abortion laws. But Zeldin was personally anti-abortion, and Reichert is promising that he isn’t.

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In 2016 and 2020, Trump tried to expand the GOP map into Minnesota and hit a ceiling — 45% of the vote. In both campaigns, he entered Election Day with lower favorable numbers than his opponent, but a more intense base, with voters twice as likely to say they were voting for their candidate as they were voting against the opposition. Trump’s still bumping up a ceiling here, and the intensity gap is still there, but for the first time, he’s got around the same job-approval rating as his opponent. Forty-seven percent of Minnesotans now approve of Trump’s first term. In 2020, just 40% did.

Since the Oct. 7 attacks, Trump has tried to use Biden’s occasional criticisms of Israel’s war and threats to withhold weapons as a wedge with Jewish voters. “If you’re Jewish, and you vote for him,” he said of Biden last month, “shame on you.” This poll, conducted during an ebb of American support for the war, found Jewish voters supporting Biden just slightly less than they did in 2020, and support for Trump hasn’t increased. Support for the war is higher among American Christians who go to church regularly.

The latest set of Fox News state polls found Trump leading Biden in every swing state, and Biden getting no benefit from the popularity of abortion rights measures on the ballot. In Arizona, since March, Trump and Biden have both gained support, with Trump keeping a 5-point lead as the third party vote shrunk slightly. By a 6-point margin, voters say they trust Biden to do a “better job” than Trump on abortion. But a quarter of the electorate supports Trump and wants to add abortion rights to the state constitution — an even bigger gap than the parties saw in Ohio last year, when regions that had abandoned Democrats in every recent federal election went big for abortion.

White House. On Tuesday, a Delaware jury convicted Hunter Biden on all three charges related to his purchase of a gun while using narcotics — the first-ever felony conviction of a sitting president’s child.

“I am the president, but I am also a dad,” Joe Biden said in a statement, before speaking to the gun control group Moms Demand Action and heading to Delaware to be with his family. “Jill and I are going to continue to be there for Hunter and our family with our love and support.” Almost instantly, Democrats held up the verdict as a rebuttal to the Trump-led GOP’s complaints about the justice system.

“I’ve not heard a single Democrat anywhere in the country cry fraud, cry fixed, cry rigged, cry kangaroo court, or any of the many epithets that our colleagues have mobilized against the US Department of Justice and our federal court system,” Maryland Rep. Jamie Raskin said during a mark-up of a resolution that would censure Attorney Gen. Merrick Garland for not cooperating more with House GOP investigators.

Republicans had two responses: That the verdict proved nothing about Trump’s treatment, and that the Biden investigations would have to continue. Trump’s campaign called the verdict a “distraction from the real crimes of the Biden Crime Family,” while House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters that “the evidence was overwhelming” in the gun case — “I don’t think that’s the case in the Trump trials.”

Some went further, suggesting the entire prosecution was a purposeful red herring. “DOJ is running election interference for Joe Biden—that’s why DOJ did NOT charge Hunter with being an unregistered foreign agent (FARA) or any crime connected with foreign corruption. Why? Because all the evidence would lead back to JOE,” Trump adviser Stephen Miller posted to X.

House. Pro-Israel groups couldn’t find a credible primary challenger to Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib this cycle, as the only Palestinian-American in Congress had her best fundraising totals ever — $6.5 million by the end of March. She’s given $500,000 of that to Justice Democrats’ independent expenditure arm, which is focused on protecting two “squad” members facing millions of dollars of spending from AIPAC’s political arm — New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman and Missouri Rep. Cori Bush.

• seven days until runoffs in Georgia and primaries in Oklahoma and Virginia
• 14 days until runoffs in South Carolina and primaries in Colorado, New York, and Utah
• 16 days until the first presidential debate
• 34 days until the Republican National Convention
• 49 days until primaries in Arizona
• 69 days until the Democratic National Convention
• 147 days until the 2024 presidential election