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In this edition, Modi comes to Washington, Trump defends his document management practices, and one ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
thunderstorms Washington
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June 20, 2023
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Steve Clemons
Steve Clemons

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit is the event of the week in Washington. As Morgan Chalfant writes this morning, U.S. leaders believe that strengthening ties with New Delhi will be essential to countering China’s global influence, and are hoping a major deal on military tech will help bring the two countries closer together. I’d add that there are rumblings in the State Department and the White House that Modi is turning out to be more of an Erdogan-style strongman than many would like — but he tends to get a pass because he’s seen as too important to U.S. security interests.

Speaking of China, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has wrapped up what are being described by both sides as productive talks with President Xi Jinping and other top Beijing officials. But it appears that China is still refusing to reopen direct military communications with the U.S. so long as its Minister of Defense, Li Shangfu, remains a target of American sanctions. Could those penalties be loosened? On Friday, a senior State Department official on their way to China told me that the sanctions were in place for good reasons, and that the U.S. at this point has no intention to remove them.

Finally, Morgan and Shelby Talcott digest Bret Baier’s Fox News interview with Donald Trump, where the former president offered a new excuse for refusing to hand back the classified documents that have landed him federal criminal charges.

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Priorities

☞ White House: President Biden, who is on a swing through California, will meet today with a group of experts at organizations that research how artificial intelligence could impact workers, children, and racial discrimination. A White House official said the meeting is an example of how the administration is “staying ahead” of the challenge posed by AI.

☞ Senate: The Senate Armed Services Committee is kicking off its work on the National Defense Authorization Act starting today, following in the footsteps of the House, which began its own markup of the mammoth defense policy bill last week. The Senate Appropriations Committee also plans to start marking up government funding bills on Thursday.

☞ House: John Durham, the Trump-era special counsel tapped to look into the origins of the Russia investigation, will meet with the House Intelligence Committee behind closed doors today before a public appearance before another panel on Wednesday. Intelligence Committee Chair Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio said on CNN over the weekend that lawmakers are looking for insights into how to reform the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which has been at the center of Republican complaints about the FBI’s handling of the Russia matter.

☞ Outside the Beltway: Mark Penn, the ex-Clinton adviser who over the years become one of “the most widely disliked men in Democratic politics,” is trying to conquer the advertising world, Semafor’s Ben Smith writes from the Cannes Lions Festival, where Penn’s firm Stagwell is sponsoring Sports Beach. “No person in Washington understands that I run a 12,000-person public company,” Penn says. A room for disagreement from Steve: “I like Mark Penn and think it’s fun to watch people go nuts over him.”

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Need to Know
REUTERS/Leah Millis/Pool

The White House is sounding optimistic about patching up relations with China after Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s meeting this weekend with the country’s president, Xi Jinping. Biden told reporters in California yesterday that Blinken did “a hell of a job” and that “we’re on the right trail here.” The meeting itself was significant because it represented a resumption of high-level talks. But Beijing still isn’t agreeing to reopen communications between the U.S. and Chinese militaries, a key issue Blinken said he repeatedly raised.

Rep. Ted Lieu, D-Calif. finally plans to introduce legislation this week that would create a bipartisan commission to regulate artificial intelligence (Ken Buck, R-Colo. is co-sponsoring it). Lieu first rolled out the idea in a January New York Times op-ed titled “I’m a Congressman Who Codes. A.I. Freaks Me Out.” This isn’t his first stab at an AI bill: He previously introduced a measure requiring humans to sign off on any nuclear launch, codifying current Pentagon policy.

In a win for the Justice Department, a federal magistrate judge in Florida blocked Trump from sharing evidence in the criminal case involving his handling of classified documents with the public. The judge also set limits on Trump’s access to evidence obtained through the discovery process, ruling that he can only view the materials in the presence of his attorneys.

The FBI held off on launching an investigation into Trump’s role in subverting the 2020 election for fear of appearing overly partisan, the Washington Post reported. Under Merrick Garland, DOJ initially focused on a bottom-up approach of prosecuting Jan. 6 protesters and was wary of going after Trump directly, a move the Post says earned it criticism internally.

Former British prime minister Liz Truss said being compared to a rotting head of lettuce during her short-lived tenure in Downing Street was “puerile” and not funny.

Morgan Chalfant and Kadia Goba

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Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Democrats in both the House and Senate will try to force votes on abortion access ahead of the upcoming one-year anniversary of the Dobbs decision. Punchbowl also reports that some Republicans are showing interest in a trade that would revive an expansion of the Child Tax Credit in return for business tax cuts, but many still view such a deal as a longshot.

Playbook: House Democrats are watching House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s struggles with hardline conservatives with “total fascination — and giddiness” at the potential impact on GOP members in swing districts, Politico reports. While party leaders typically cut frontline members some slack in breaking with their party on tough votes, Republicans’ thin House majority doesn’t allow them that option — and Democrats say they are ready to pounce in key districts ahead of 2024.

The Early 202: During John Durham’s appearance before the House Judiciary Committee tomorrow, Republicans are expected to highlight the idea that the FBI treated Trump more harshly than it did Hillary Clinton (something that is suggested by Durham’s report).

Axios: Former Arizona GOP Gov. Doug Ducey plans to launch a grassroots organization to register voters across the country “who are willing to fight for free enterprise,” Axios writes. The group aims to be the conservative foil to Stacey Abrams’ Fair Fight Action.

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Foreign Influence

China and Russia hover over India’s state visit

REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein/File Photo

When the White House welcomes Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a state visit this week, China and Russia will be looming large in the background.

Officials are hoping that the meeting between Modi and President Joe Biden will help firm up a diplomatic and military alliance that they see as critical to countering Beijing’s growing power.

As the centerpiece of their meeting, the two leaders are expected to announce a major defense deal under which General Electric will produce fighter jet engines in India — a rare move that will require tech transfers from the U.S.

“I think people will be looking back on this visit by Prime Minister Modi as a real springboard for the U.S.-India relationship,” Ely Ratner, the Pentagon’s assistant secretary for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, said during an event in Washington hosted by the Center for a New American Security earlier this month, as he teased “really big, historic” announcements on defense cooperation.

The state visit comes at a moment where the U.S. and India have found themselves out of sync on some major foreign policy issues, complicating efforts to bolster ties even as India and China have clashed over tensions on their shared border. India is very reliant on Russian arms and energy exports, and has refrained from taking a stance against the Kremlin amid its war in Ukraine.

There are also questions about what India would do if China were to invade Taiwan, with some experts doubting that New Delhi would join the U.S. in any military confrontation.

The jet engine deal is seen partly as a step meant to help wean India off of Russian military hardware, and bring it closer to the U.S.’s orbit.

Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., who chairs the House India caucus, told Semafor that he also wants to see more joint training exercises as well as discussion about how to enhance the Quad — a strategic dialogue between the U.S., India, Australia, and Japan.

“The U.S.-India relationship is the most significant going forward in the 21st century, particularly as it pertains to the Chinese Communist Party and their aggression,” Waltz told Semafor. He and co-chair Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif. are planning a trip to India in August in timing with the country’s 70th Independence Day celebrations, Waltz said.

The efforts to turn India into a balancing force against China go beyond military cooperation. Policymakers are also looking to the country to help diversify supply chains and reduce U.S. reliance on China for things like pharmaceutical ingredients. During her visit to India earlier this year, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo inked an agreement with Indian counterparts on semiconductor supply chains.

“The challenge on China is not going to go away,” Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., said at a summit on U.S.-India ties in Washington last week, directing his comments to business leaders. “Lord knows we’re not hoping that we would have the kind of decoupling that we had with Russia, but if you don’t have a plan B in place vis-a-vis Taiwan or vis-a-vis if Xi starts sending offensive weapons into Russia, then you are being slightly irresponsible to your shareholders and customers. And that plan B ought to include India.”

Morgan Chalfant

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Shelby Talcott and Morgan Chalfant

Trump offers new explanation for keeping classified documents

REUTERS/Amr Alfik/File Photo

Former President Donald Trump participated in a wide-ranging and contentious sitdown with Fox News’ Bret Baier on Monday, his first TV interview since coming under federal indictment.

Here’s a rundown of the hilights.

On the indictment

Trump, who pleaded not guilty last week to charges that he mishandled classified documents, continued to insist he’d done nothing wrong, while offering a new explanation for why he didn’t simply hand back the papers when asked.

The former president told Baier that he hadn’t returned boxes containing the secret materials to the National Archives in part because they were also storing “personal things” such as “golf shirts, clothing, pants, [and] shoes,” and that he wanted to sort through them first.

“I was very busy, as you’ve sort of seen,” Trump said. “Before I send boxes over I have to take all of my things out … But everything was declassified.”

When asked whether he had held on to documents relating to a hypothetical attack against Iran, as has been reported, the former president said: “Not that I know of.”

Questioned on whether he’s worried about the case, Trump briefly paused. “Based on the law?” he said. “Zero. Zero.”

On winning swing voters

At one point, Baier asked Trump for his message to female, independent voters in the suburbs — a group he’s lost ground with and would likely need to win back in a race against President Joe Biden. Trump responded with a tangent about the 2020 election.

“I won in 2020 by a lot,” he claimed, insisting the election had been stolen even as Baier pushed back repeatedly.

“This is how you’re going to tell that independent suburban woman voter to vote for you?” Baier eventually asked.

“No,” Trump responded. “We are off to winning an election, and I think we’re winning very well.”

On his hiring decisions

Trump, who’s regularly found himself at war in the press with his own former cabinet members, promised that he would bring on “really, great, strong people” in his next administration. When Baier noted that Trump made a similar pledge in 2016, Trump insisted he hired “ten to one that were fantastic.”

Trump also said he wouldn’t ask his relatives, such as his daughter Ivanka or her husband Jared Kushner, to serve in another administration because it’s “too painful for the family.” The pair have kept their distance from Trump’s 2024 campaign.

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One Good Text

Richard Fontaine is the CEO of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank that focuses on national security and defense policy.

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Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

WHAT THE LEFT ISN’T READING: 2024 GOP hopeful Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis got behind the bar at a stop in Nevada over the weekend and joked that he would serve the customers “anything except Bud Light.”

WHAT THE RIGHT ISN’T READING: A Change.org petition calling on the Australian government to deny Donald Trump Jr. a travel visa for an upcoming speaking series in the country has garnered over 16,000 signatures.

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Principals Team

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