 REUTERS/Tingshu WangTHE NEWS China’s electricity-generating southwestern provinces face another uphill battle this summer to meet electricity demand for themselves and other key provinces, including major economic hubs and manufacturing centers that drive the Chinese and global economies. Shortfalls last year forced factory closures, hitting companies at home and abroad that rely on Chinese manufacturing. This year, soaring temperatures and a post-pandemic economic recovery are expected to drive up electricity consumption, while scarce rainfall could further hamper the region’s crucial hydropower output. Still, experts I spoke to cautioned that this year’s situation would not be as bad as last summer, pointing to milder — if still brutal — temperatures and better-prepared local authorities. XIAOYING’S VIEW One of my fondest memories of growing up in Shanghai was eating watermelon slices on sweltering July evenings outside my home as a treat. On a recent trip, I ate watermelon in May, when temperatures had already surpassed 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit). In a nutshell, that summarizes the challenge facing Chinese authorities: The country is much hotter, for much longer, meaning residents of China — far wealthier than when I was young, and so more able to access power-hungry air conditioning — consume much more electricity. On a macro level, demand has massively increased: economic growth, industrial expansion, and the impacts of climate change have hugely ramped up electricity usage. At the same time, supply is under threat, particularly in China’s southwest, which gets around 80% of its power generation from hydro. A study found that human-caused climate change has made droughts in China — and other parts of the northern hemisphere in 2022 — at least 20 times more likely.  KNOW MORE The China Electricity Council, a state-supervised trade body, warned in June that the country’s hydropower supply is “facing challenges.” It said that rainfall for the region is forecast to be 20-50% less than normal years between June and August, which will likely impact power supply locally and to other provinces. Although provincial governments have taken a series of steps to prepare for surging power demand, such as encouraging off-peak power use and managing water levels of reservoirs, experts anticipated seasonal power stress to persist. Worries over power shortages spurred provinces across China to step up production of coal and coal power. There has also been a rush to approve new coal-fired power capacity in the country, a push that has drawn concern over its emissions and financial ramifications.  ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT Building more coal power plants won’t solve the problem, according to a new study, which argued that the “root cause” of the power shortages was China’s “rigid” power system management. The study, co-authored by a Hong Kong-based consultancy and a Helsinki-based think tank, said that Beijing should prioritize making its power system more flexible through methods such as reforming power pricing mechanisms and improving power-sharing arrangements between provinces. THE VIEW FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD Droughts and heat waves in China’s southwest could threaten the global supply chains of a range of goods from rice to metals. But the impact of any potential supply chain disruptions this year is likely to be “limited” and “short-lived,” said Cosimo Ries, a renewable energy analyst at the consultancy Trivium China, because Chinese policymakers “have taken active steps in preparation of energy shortages.” — To read more, click here. | 
