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Clean water polls better than climate policy.͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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June 28, 2024
semafor

Net Zero

Climate
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Hotspots
  1. Missed opportunities
  2. Carbon capture boom
  3. New wind king
  4. Greenwashing cases on the rise
  5. The insurance bottleneck

Philanthropy takes on FOAK, and Citi employees dodge protestors.

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1

How Joe Biden lost the climate debate too

 
Tim McDonnell
Tim McDonnell
 
Brian Snyder/Reuters

Donald Trump and Joe Biden briefly traded barbs over climate in their presidential debate Thursday night — and the weak responses from both candidates handed Trump an unexpected advantage.

In response to a question from CNN moderator Dana Bash about whether the candidates would “take any action as president to slow the climate crisis,” Trump claimed that his administration “had the best environmental numbers ever” and that he wants “absolutely immaculate clean water” and “absolutely clean air.” Biden, in a shaky response, argued that Trump “hasn’t done a damn thing for the environment” and that “I passed the most extensive climate change legislation in history.” The exchange was typical of what has become the dynamic between the two contenders: Trump forceful and wrong, Biden garbled despite having plenty to brag about.

“The question got asked; the answers failed the future,” Bob Inglis, former Republican representative of South Carolina and executive director of the conservative climate communications group republicEn, told Semafor.

Biden’s muddled reference to the Inflation Reduction Act was a missed opportunity for him to press what should be one of his strongest arguments in swing districts: That he is overseeing the reindustrialization of the US, and is responsible for at least $200 billion in investment in job-creating industrial facilities, overwhelmingly in Republican-majority areas. Setting aside the fact that Trump’s assertions were inaccurate — his administration rolled back more than 100 pollution-related regulations — and that his narrow focus on air and water quality feels antiquated and misguided in the era of climate change, his framing is likely to be more resonant with more voters than Biden’s.

Read on for more on the real missed opportunity of the evening: that neither candidate articulated a vision for the future US energy economy. →

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2

More carbon capture needed

Carbon capture projects aren’t being built fast enough, a Wood Mackenzie analysis found.

Total global carbon capture capacity is on track to reach 440 million tons per year by 2034, up from 65 million today. But that’s about 200 million tons short of what is needed to decarbonize the power and industrial sectors in a net zero scenario, the report concludes. To speed up, at least $80 billion in government financing will be needed in Western countries. And in China and other Asian countries, where policy support for CCS remains minimal, a major boost is needed. Shell, for one, isn’t holding back, and this week said it will move ahead with two large CCS projects on a refinery in Alberta.

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3

New king of offshore wind

Courtesy Avangrid

The race to build the biggest offshore wind farm in the US is heating up. Until this week that title was held by Ørsted’s South Fork project in New York. This week, Avangrid’s Vineyard Wind in Massachusetts surpassed it, switching on a tenth turbine that brings the project’s operating capacity to 136 megawatts. After a turbulent period last year, the offshore wind industry is getting its footing again, Ken Kimmell, Avangrid’s chief development officer, told Semafor: “We’re getting better at doing these faster.” The project aims to reach 800 megawatts within a few years. But challenges remain on the path to actually building the 10 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity approved so far by the Biden administration: There’s still very little domestic manufacturing of wind hardware and few ships to move it on, and utility connection and construction permitting remain painfully slow. Project prices are rising, Kimmell said, but “we base our pricing on reality, not on hopes and dreams. We’re going to make promises we know we can keep.” Are utilities willing to pay those prices? The industry will find out, he said, at the next round of leasing auctions in New England in August.

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Mixed Signals

Hot off the debate stage, and into the podcast studio, Ben, Nayeema, and Max dig into who gets to decide who “won” the first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Joining them, statistician Nate Silver, founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, discusses election predictions and why people are so skeptical of polls these days. On Wednesday, Silver released his Silver Bulletin Election Model showing Trump with a 66% chance of heading back to the White House. Plus, Nayeema calls out Americans’ blindspots by taking us on a quick tour of elections around the world.

Catch up with the latest episode of Mixed Signals.

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4

Greenwashing cases on the rise

Climate lawsuits against companies and governments filed globally in 2023. The number of lawsuits is increasing, and according to an analysis by the London School of Economics, a growing number of these focus on accusations of greenwashing. In cases where a company is alleged to have misrepresented its actions on climate, the claimants win 70% of the time, the analysis found. But it’s not yet clear whether those rulings are making a noticeable change in companies’ behavior, the authors warned.

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5

The insurance bottleneck

Gonzalo Fuentes/Reuters

Insurance companies are holding back the energy transition. In a survey of 600 US and UK energy companies, the insurance firm Axis Capital reported that one-third believe the insurance industry hurts innovation in the energy transition, and that one-fifth say they’re unable to get the kind of insurance coverage they need on innovative energy projects to secure bank financing. There are two problems at work here, the firm’s energy innovation lead Joe Dutton said. One is that many companies wait until the late stages of project development to line up their insurance for it. That may work for run-of-the-mill, low-risk projects. But for anything innovative it means insurers only get a chance to point out potential red flags once decisions are locked in, pushing insurance rates higher than would otherwise be necessary.

The other problem, Dutton said, is that the insurance industry as a whole is not well-suited to rapid technological change. Rates are set based on past experiences, which in the energy transition may be few or nonexistent. “The previous major innovation inflection points in the insurance industry took place over decades, but the energy transition is taking place over months and years,” he said. “It’s moving quicker than the industry is used to.” Early engagement between project developers and insurers is one solution; sustained and predictable policy support for clean energy is the other.

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Power Plays

New Energy

  • If one single company has been the biggest winner of the Inflation Reduction Act, it might be the panel manufacturer First Solar, which is reaping billions of dollars in tax credits and has seen its stock price double.

Fossil Fuels

  • Tensions are growing between the White House and Treasury Department over the stiffness of sanctions to place on Russia’s fossil fuel sector. Biden is concerned about anything that could cause gasoline prices to rise before the election.
  • Canada’s oil sands companies are having a moment thanks to new export pipelines and low operating costs.
Stringer/Reuters

Finance

Tech

Politics & Policy

  • In an unusual speech to his staff, EPA administrator Michael Regan said “the previous administration… ambushed scientific integrity” and sought to reassure staffers about how much Biden values them.

EVs

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One Good Text

Lara Pierpoint, managing director of Trellis Climate at Prime Coalition.

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Hot on Semafor
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